ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING
OBSCURED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH (25-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LACK OF A DISTINCT
LLCC WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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