ACUS03 KWNS 120719
SWODY3
SPC AC 120718

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast
on Tuesday.

...Southeast...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast
on Tuesday. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the
base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS
Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. This
evolution will place large-scale forcing for ascent and strong
deep-layer vertical shear across the TN Valley and Southeast.
However, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning from the Lower MS Valley into much of the Southeast,
with these storms likely continuing eastward across GA and SC
throughout the day Tuesday. There is some potential for these storms
to restrengthen as they move into a destabilizing airmass across GA
and SC Tuesday afternoon. Damaging gusts would be the primary
hazard. 

Farther west across MS, AL, and GA, the primary uncertainty across
much of the region is whether or not the airmass can recover ahead
of a weak surface trough. Guidance varies on this recovery, but
vertical shear will be strong enough to support organization and
some severe potential with any mature updrafts.

...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains...
A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern
Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly
in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains.
This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with
eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few
thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but
limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm strength.

..Mosier.. 05/12/2024

$$