ACUS11 KWNS 141822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141821 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the NC/VA
Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141821Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A locally greater risk for damaging wind gusts may develop
across across portions of the NC/VA Piedmont downstream of
developing thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary/weak
cold frontal boundary extending roughly west-to-east from southern
DelMarVa into central Virginia and the central Appalachians. South
of this boundary, continued insolation and dewpoints in the low 70s
F should support 1500-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating this
afternoon, sufficient for a few stronger updrafts. Effective shear
remains generally weak roughly south of the NC/VA border (less than
20 kts), which will favor an outflow-dominant/pulse-severe type
storm mode. Steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW (2+ inches
per the 12 UTC GSO observed sounding) will support an isolated risk
for wet microbursts and damaging wind gusts. Farther north, latest
objective analysis suggests that effective shear is locally enhanced
along the aforementioned surface boundary (20-30+ kts) across
central/southern Virginia. This could allow for a locally greater
risk for damaging wind gusts to materialize should a loosely
organized cluster evolve east-southeastward out of West Virginia
(where a recent report of thunderstorm wind damage is noted).
Regardless, the overall severe risk is expected to remain relatively
isolated and limited in magnitude. Thus, watch issuance appears
unlikely at this time.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   38468151 38508091 38468024 38347955 38047878 37717810
            37497779 37217765 36767760 36447773 36167794 35837832
            35647870 35517940 35518003 35678064 36008128 36868218
            37458257 38098261 38358228 38468151 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH