ACUS11 KWNS 190431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190430 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...North-central/northeast AR into southeast
MO...western TN...far western KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...130...

Valid 190430Z - 190600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129, 130
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe hail and wind will spread
southeastward overnight.

DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing late
tonight near a southeastward moving cold front from north-central AR
into southeast MO. While the primary upper-level trough and surface
low will become increasingly displaced northeast of the region,
low-level south-southwesterly flow will maintain rich moisture
along/ahead of the front, with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg
potentially spreading from AR into western TN. Deep-layer shear will
remain modestly favorable for organized storms and somewhat
orthogonal to the boundary, and a transient supercell or two remains
possible if deep convection can be sustained. With time, weakening
ascent and increasing MLCINH with southeastward extent will
eventually result in a diminishing threat, but isolated hail and
damaging gusts remain possible into the early overnight hours.

..Dean.. 04/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35499282 36299094 36738964 36938923 36798861 36518843
            35998850 35628897 35059092 34829187 34849239 35079270
            35429278 35499282