AGUS74 KWCO 101219
AHDNWC

Area Hydrological Discussion #007 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
610 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southern Mississippi into northern Georgia
WHEN: Through early this afternoon

FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2" (HRRR, WPC)
Soil Moisture: 70% + (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)

DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall will continue today across
the region, maintaining a threat for flash, urban, and small stream
flooding. The greatest threat for flooding impacts is currently
focused across southern Mississippi, but is expected to shift
northeastward through the morning as the event continues. Top soils
are primed, allowing rainfall to quickly convert to runoff and
increasing the potential for rapid rises on area streams and rivers.
Many streams have already responded to earlier rounds of heavy
rainfall, with USGS streamflow observations indicating continued
rises, including some smaller creeks that have risen several feet
over the past few hours, with additional crests still expected.

The HRRR-forced National Water Model has been consistently indicating
the potential for small stream responses across the area of concern,
with probabilities generally in the 25 - 50% range and localized
probabilities exceeding 75%. Given recent rainfall, expected high
rain rates, and the terrain across portions of the region, locally
significant flooding impacts cannot be ruled out, particularly in
basins draining steeper terrain. Urban areas will remain especially
vulnerable to flooding impacts.

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd

Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations

//Freeman

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...BMX...HUN...GSP...MRX...MOB...FFC
ATTN...RFC...ORN...ALR...WPC