AGUS74 KWCO 160348 AHDNWC Area Hydrological Discussion #024 - EXPERIMENTAL NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL 943 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 WHAT: Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding likely WHERE: Eastern Kentucky into northern Tennessee, southern Ohio and Indiana, southern West Virginia, and extreme western Virginia WHEN: Through early Sunday morning Forecast Rainfall and Antecedent Conditions... QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher possible (HRRR) QPE: 1 - 3", past 12 hours (MRMS) Rainfall Rates: 1 - 2"/hr possible (HRRR) Soil Moisture: Wet (70 - 95% 0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) Streamflows: Much above normal (USGS) DISCUSSION... Considerable and life-threatening flash, urban, and small stream flooding remains a distinct threat across the area of concern into the overnight hours. Past rainfall has eliminated any remaining infiltration capacity. Soils are saturated and streams are swollen or out of their banks already, so anywhere even moderately heavy rain occurs could see rapid-onset/flash flooding. Any additional rainfall will immediately lead to runoff in already swollen rivers and streams and lead to significant flash and small stream flooding. This rainfall will continue to overwhelm storm drains and culverts and lead to widespread areas of standing water on roadways and low-lying areas, especially in urban areas. The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast is consistently signaling potential for rapid-onset flooding (ROF) across the area of concern. Probabilities are generally 50% or greater. The NWM Highflow Magnitude Forecast suggests 10 - 4% annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) especially across eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia suggesting high confidence in the likelihood of significant small stream impacts. GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd Additional National Water Center products are available at weather.gov/owp/operations //TMK ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...OHX...RNK...MRX...LWX ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...ALR...WPC