AWIO20 FMEE 260958
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/26 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a monsoon trough (MT) configuration east of 75E. Convective activity is weak near the MT over the eastern part of the basin and moderate to strong over the northern Mozambique Channel in the convergence between the monsoon flow and the trade winds.

In the current unfavorable context, and with the MJO expected to gradually shift towards the Pacific Ocean, conditions are likely to become increasingly unfavorable for cyclogenesis in the longer term.

Overt the eastern borders of the basin:
In our basin, an elongated circulation is present at the eastern end of the MT, around 11S/81E, but it does not pose a significant risk of change.

Apart from system HORACIO passing over the southeast of the basin, development of a new tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.





NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.