AWIO20 FMEE 021121
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/09/02 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter pattern, with weak convective activity in the trade wind deceleration zone between the Chagos and Seychelles archipelagos.

Given the current dry phase of the MJO over our basin, equatorial wave activity over the next 5 days is unconducive to tropical storm development.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected during the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.