AWIO20 FMEE 221143
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/10/22 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO22 009/1 and WTIO30 10/1 issued at 06 UTC sur la Tempete Tropicale Moderee AGUEDA. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) branch associated with Moderate Tropical Storm AGUEDA is currently deforming and disappearing. The basin will subsequently return to a winter-like configuration. AGUEDA concentrates most of the convective activity, but weaker convective activity is also observed near the Chagos Archipelago and in the northeastern part of the basin.

Equatorial easterly wind anomalies driven by El Nino and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) maintain an unfavorable large-scale pattern for cyclogenesis, especially over the eastern part of the basin. Further west, the Equatorial Rossby wave associated with tropical storm AGUEDA will gradually move away to the west, while the moist phase of the MJO will slowly move toward the east. The pattern should thus become less conducive from this weekend into early next week.

Moderate Tropical Storm AGUEDA : Information at 09 UTC : Estimated position : 6.0S / 50.7EMovement : W, 4 ktMaximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 45 ktEstimated central pressure : 998 hPaFor further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Apart from system AGUEDA, development of a tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
From the last days of October, a NET pattern could form again over the central part of the basin (somewhere between 50 and 75E) due to enhanced equatorial westerly winds at the rear of the moist phase of the MJO. A Kelvin wave could also move into the picture right after. This context could enable the formation of a low-pressure area within the NET by early November.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.