AWIO20 FMEE 091037
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/09 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin now exhibits a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, east of 65oE and between 5oS and 8oS, associated with the establishment of westerly winds along the equator. Convective activity is moderate within the convergence zones along the equatorial edge of the NET over the eastern end of the basin.

Despite a positive SIOD, the low-frequency easterly anomaly remains pronounced. However, it is offset by a westerly anomaly behind the wet phase of the MJO, resulting in conditions unfavorable for cyclogenesis.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Following on from the first five days, a new Rossby wave is expected to develop over the eastern Indian Ocean, strengthening vorticity at the eastern edge of the NET, particularly in the Australian area of responsibility. Further ahead, a low-pressure system could then form east of 90oE.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.