AWIO20 FMEE 151152
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/15 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO24 036/10 and WTIO30 042/10 issued at 06 UTC sur le Cyclone Tropical GEZANI. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin exhibits a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern east of 55E and along 11S. Convective activity is moderate near the MT and stronger over the eastern part of the basin and near GEZANI, which is evolving over the southern Mozambique Channel.

Over the next five days, within the broader context of a moist phase of the MJO, the Rossby wave evolving over the basin's centre will strengthen the monsoon flow and thus the low-level convergence in the MT up until early next week. The passage of a Kelvin wave midweek should also enhance this effect. Conditions are therefore expected to become more favorable for cyclogenesis within the MT.

Tropical Cyclone GEZANI :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position : 26.6 S / 39.7 E
Movement : E, 8kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 65 kt
Estimated central pressure : 982 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

South of the Chagos archipelago :
This morning scatterometric passes and the latest satellite images show the presence of a large MT over the center of the basin with several weak clockwise circulations, notably one around 10S/71.5E. However, no closed circulation is currently detectable.

In the coming days, with the persistence of strong convergence on the equatorial side around this area, most models forecast the formation of a closed circulation. However, as shown by the GFS, weak convergence on the polar side could delay the development of this area. Finally, this minimum could be limited by the presence of moderate easterly shear north of 10-12S. Given this partially favorable environment, the risk of cyclogenesis appears limited in the short term.

IFS and EPS, as well as several AI ensembles, suggest a significant risk of cyclogenesis for the second half of the week over the center of the basin, but with important differences in timing. The AI models are notably late. GFS and GEFS, meanwhile, still do not show any significant risk.

The risk of tropical storm formation over the center of the basin is expected to become very low from Tuesday 17th, low from Thursday 19th then moderate from Friday 20th February.





NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.