AWIO20 FMEE 021110
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/07/02 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is back in a winter configuration. Convective activity is weak in the trade wind lag zone east of 80o E.

Over the next five days, a near-equatorial trough could re-emerge in the eastern part of the basin under the influence of an equatorial Rossby wave (n=0), though it will likely be very close to the equator and have relatively weak equatorial convergence.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.