AWIO20 FMEE 081159
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/08 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO22 008/10 and WTIO30 014/10 issued at 06 UTC sur la Depression Tropicale GENAZI. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin has a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern, but this has significantly deteriorated over the last few days. Nevertheless, two branches can be distinguished, the first east of 80oE along 07oS and the second south of the Mozambique Channel. Convective activity is moderate north of the first branch but also around the GENAZI system currently circulating north of the Mascarene Islands.

Over the next five days, two short Kevin waves are expected to pass through the basin, the first of which will be very powerful, followed by a second weaker wave. The first wave will intersect with an equatorial Rossby wave over the eastern part of the basin, in a context conducive to the arrival of a wet MJO. This wave intersection and context could be favorable for cyclogenesis over the eastern part of the basin.

Tropical Depression GENAZI :
Information at 09 UTC : 
Estimated position : 18.0 S / 56.7 E
Movement : WNW, 4 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 30 kt
Estimated central pressure : 1004 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Over the eastern part and the far east of the basin :
Convective activity has remained moderate today near a surface trough around 06 S/79 E. However, the latest data do not indicate the presence of a true center or a closed circulation.

Although still disrupted on its northern side by deep southeasterly wind shear, the low appears to be trying to escape by moving southward in a very wet atmosphere and over warm waters. Surface convergence is still lacking on the polar side, preventing the system from becoming symmetrical. However, the favorable wave pattern could help improve this convergence over the next few days. By Tuesday, this low-pressure system will move eastward and enter Australian territory on Tuesday evening or Wednesday.
In terms of models, deterministic and AI models are showing very little reaction, and only a few ensemble members are predicting a moderate tropical storm developing in our area by Wednesday, just before it passes into Australian territory, but it is more likely that the storm will develop outside our basin.

The risk of tropical storm development in the far east of the basin will be very low on Tuesday, February 10, or Wednesday, February 11.



10-day outlook : 
The eastward propagation of the equatorial Rossby wave along the MT generates a diffuse cyclogenesis signal throughout the second half of next week toward the center of the basin.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.