AWIO20 FMEE 081027
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/10/08 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter configuration and convective activity remains weak to moderate in the near-equatorial area.

Equatorial easterly wind anomalies at upper level driven by El Nino and the building positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) maintain a durably unfavorable large-scale pattern for cyclogenesis.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
The onset of a wet Madden-Julian oscilation phase over the western part of the basin by mid october could reinforce convective activity near the Seychelles archipelago, without however, favoring cyclogenesis.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.