AWIO20 FMEE 031030
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/06/03 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter configuration, with trade winds crossing the equator and feeding the Asian monsoon. Convective activity is weak and confined to areas of trade wind deceleration.

This winter configuration adds to the MJO's dry phase and to a large-scale low-frequency sinking pattern over the Indian ocean, yielding durably unfavorable conditions for cyclogenesis.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.