AWIO20 FMEE 141141
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/03/14 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern between 50E and 65E, extending north of Madagascar around 8S to the northeast of Rodrigues. In the middle of this MT lies the area of disturbed weather 12-20252026, for which regular monitoring ceased at 06UTC. The 0520 UTC ASCAT-C shows average winds of 26 kt, but they are likely to reach 30 kt in the eastern semicircle, and continues to show an elongated circulation. Convective activity is light to moderate near the Seychelles and significant near the Tanzanian coast and thus near 12-20252026

The dry phase of the MJO is centered over the eastern part of the basin and will continue toward the maritime continent through next week, allowing for the return of a pattern more conducive to convective activity over the western part of the basin. The tail end of the equatorial Rossby wave, combined with a northwesterly MJO anomaly, ensures strong convergence on the equatorial side close to 12-2025206 through the very beginning of next week. For the remainder of the period and the rest of the basin, conditions are not favorable for cyclogenesis.

12-20252026 (Area of disturbed weather) : 
Information at 10 UTC : 
Estimated position: 12.3S / 58.5E
Movement : SSE, 8 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes): 30 kt
Estimated central pressure: 1004 hPa

Weak interaction with another low-pressure system east of the MT may lead to a temporary intensification of a system to a moderate tropical storm after it passes south of 20oS beyond the Mascarene Islands. Baroclinic mechanisms may contribute to this slight intensification, as simulated by some members of the IA and non-IA ensemble forecasts, as well as the AROME model.

The likelihood of reintensification of 12-20252026 or the formation of another moderate tropical storm will become low from Tuesday, March 17th, in the immediate southeast of the Mascarene Islands.



10-day outlook:


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.