AWIO20 FMEE 191018
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/08/19 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter configuration, with light to moderate convective activity to the north-east of the Seychelles.

Conditions are unfavorable for cyclogenesis over the basin due to the strong large-scale sinking motion associated with El Nino, which adds to the dry phase of the MJO.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected during the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.