AWIO20 FMEE 151128
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/15 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin exhibit a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, east of 70E and between 5S and 7S. Convective activity is weak to moderate along both sides of the NET.

The current low-frequency pattern is unfavorable for cyclogenesis, with an easterly wind anomaly along the equator. The dry MJO phase expected to develop over the next few days will accentuate these anomalies. The NET may therefore not persist in this environment. The potential for cyclogenesis is thus likely to decrease by the end of April.

In the Australian region:
A weak tropical system is currently being monitored by the BOM north of the Cocos Islands. It could enter our area of responsibility on Thursday or Friday, but environmental conditions appear unfavorable. Surface convergence on the equatorial side will remain very weak. Westerly wind shear could also increase by Friday. The risk of cyclogenesis or  entry of a tropical storm therefore remains marginal at this time.

For the next 5 days, there is a very low risk for development or entry of a moderate tropical storm, within our area of the system from Saturday 18 April.



10-day outlook:
Nothing to report

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.