AWIO20 FMEE 061100
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/11/06 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletin WTIO30 002/02 issued at 06 UTC sur la Zone Perturbee 02-20262027. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

With the southwestward progression of zone of disturbed weather No. 02-20262027, the basin no longer contains any particular pattern. Convective activity is weak to moderate on either side of a low-pressure trough extending from the Seychelles to No. 02-20262027, monitored by the RSMC. Additionally, weak to moderate convection is observed in the area of trade wind deceleration near the Chagos and further east.

For the next 5 days, over the western side of the basin, the vorticity and moisture ccontent from the Rossby wave associated with the currently monitored low-pressure system will gradually shift westward and then move away. Over the eastern side of the basin, the equatorial easterly wind anomalies (influenced by El Nino and a weak positive IOD) continue to create unfavorable conditions for cyclogenesis. However, early next week, the passage of a Kelvin wave in the North Indian Ocean, coupled with the regeneration of the MJO, could lead to the formation of a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) over the eastern side of the basin.

Zone of Disturbed Weather 02-20262027 : Information at 09 UTC : Estimated position : 13.6S / 55.7EMovement : west-south-west, 13 ktMaximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 30 ktEstimated central pressure : 1007 hPaFor further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 12 UTC and following.

Apart from the cyclogenesis risk associated with system 02-20262027, there is no risk of tropical storm development elsewhere over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
The NET pattern should continue to strengthen under the influence of a Kelvin Wave crossing the basin around mid-November.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.