AWIO20 FMEE 161133
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/07/16 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is overall in a winter configuration. Convective activity is light to moderate in the trade wind slowdown area northeast of the Seychelles and in the northeastern part of the basin.

The wave environment remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis (dry MJO phase in particular).

South of the Mozambique Channel :
A weak baroclinic low-level circulation is currently developing. It is detectable around 39oE/26.5oS via scatterometer data, with winds of 2025 knots, driven by a gradient effect in the southern part of the circulation. Although this circulation will not persist, it will contribute to triggering a new low-level baroclinic circulation further to the east-southeast of Madagascar over the next two days. This developing circulation, embedded in a sheared and dry environment, shows no potential to develop into a tropical or subtropical system.

For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a moderate tropical storm or subtropical system.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.