AWIO20 FMEE 121201
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/11/12 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin shows a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) configuration east of 60oE. Convective activity is moderate at the eastern end of the basin near this NET. The baroclinic depression circulation is still present over the southern Mozambique Channel, while weakening.

The active wet phase of the MJO coupled with a Kelvin wave remains modest but supports the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) structure, which is expected to consolidate over the coming days. In this context, the persistence of this NET could gradually favor the development of low-level vorticity.

Over the souther part of the Mozambique Channel :The circulation over the southern Mozambique Channel, located near 21.0oS / 38.7oE, still shows no significant convective activity. In a dry environment, convective activity cannot develop, and the system's primarily baroclinic structure persists. In this context, the system cannot transition into a subtropical or tropical structure and will dissipate within the next 24-48 hours off the Mozambican coast.

For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a subtropical/tropical storm.



10-day outlook:
Early next week, after the passage of a second Kelvin wave and, more importantly, with the arrival of a vorticity anomaly associated with an equatorial Rossby wave from the east, the NET pattern could become more pronounced, with increased vorticity. A cyclogenesis is then not ruled out by mid-next week.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.