AWIO20 FMEE 191138
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/19 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO20 048/10 and WTIO30 054/10 issued at 06 UTC sur la Depression Tropicale 11-20252026.. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin has a Monsoon Trough (MT) configuration east of 50E between 8 and 10S. Convective activity is strong near Tropical Depression 11-20252026 and moderate on the northern side of the MT and near Aldabra.

The combination of an equatorial Rossby wave moving over the center of the basin and an active phase of the MJO is strengthening the monsoon flow and promoting low-level convergence on the equatorial side of the MT. However, the presence of tropical depression 11-20252026 over the center of the basin should gradually limit convergence on the polar side and prevent further cyclogenesis within the MT.

Tropical Depression 11-20252026:
Information at 09 UTC : 
Estimated position :  13.9 S / 76.6 E
Movement : SSO, 6 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 30 kt
Estimated central pressure : 1001 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Apart from the system 11-20252026 for which warnings are issued, development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.



NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.