AWIO20 FMEE 011014
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/10/01 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter configuration. Convective activity is weak to moderate near the equator.

Equatorial easterly wind anomalies driven by El Nino and the building positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) maintain a durably unfavorable large-scale pattern for cyclogenesis. A weakly-active MJO could enter from the west of the basin early October, which could enhance convection and rainfall in the vicinity of the Seychelles, but without any significant effect on cyclogenesis potential.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.