AWIO20 FMEE 251144
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/25 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 025/11 issued at 06 UTC sur le Cyclone Tropical HORACIO. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a near-equatorial trough (NET) configuration east of 80E. Convective activity is moderate near the NET, weak south of the Seychelles and northwest of Madagascar.

A weak Kelvin wave will cross the basin from west to east over the next two days and eventually intersect with the MJO's westerly surge and a weak Rossby wave at the eastern borders of our basin. The westerly flow is therefore expected to temporarily strengthen along the equator. However, conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for cyclogenesis in the longer run, as the MJO is forecast to gradually shift towards the Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone HORACIO :
Information at 09 UTC : 
Estimated position :  28.6S / 66.6 E
Movement : SSE 12kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 70 kt
Estimated central pressure : 970 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Overt the eastern borders of the basin:
Two elongated circulations are present at the western and eastern ends of the TPE, near 12S/80E and 11S/91E. However, neither of these two circulations shows potential for development due to a lack of convergence on the equatorial side and, to a lesser extent, to a moderate easterly wind shear. Among the available models, only the EPS suggests a very low probability of development within five days in the Australian area of responsibility. The other available models are unanimous and do not suggest any future developments.

Apart from system HORACIO, development of a new tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.





NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.