AWIO20 FMEE 200953
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/05/20 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin exhibits a winter configuration with a narrow branch of the near-equatorial trough (NET) in the northeastern part of the basin. Convective activity in this area is light to moderate.

Over the next five days, the active phase of the MJO will move eastward out of the basin, while a westerly wind anomaly will remain well established over the basin in relation to the passage of a Kelvin wave. The anticyclonic phase of an equatorial Rossby wave keeps the basin in a winter pattern.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.