AWIO20 FMEE 091056
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/07/09 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter configuration. Convective activity is moderate within a low-pressure system near 2oS, 70oE in the trade wind slowing area, northwest of Diego Garcia.

The wave environment remain unfavorable and thus insufficient for cyclogenesis (dry MJO phase in particular).

Low-pressure system northwest of Diego Garcia
Weak to moderate convective activity showing signs of curving has been detectable on visible and infrared satellite imagery for about twelve hours. The absence of low-level polar-co-linear convergence and the system's proximity to the equator are inhibiting its potential to develop into a tropical storm.

No models are forecasting the development of a tropical storm in this area.

For the next 5 days, there is no potential for this suspect area to develop into a moderate tropical storm.



10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.