AWIO20 FMEE 251009
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/25 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a poorly defined pattern, displaying a weak and discontinuous near-equatorial trough (NET) configuration between 50 and 80E. Convective activity is light to moderate in the area where trade winds slow down east of 65E as well as along the northern coast of the NET near the Seychelles. Associated with a low-level trough moving north of the Mascarene Islands, convective activity is weak along the eastern side of this trough.

Large-scale conditions remain unfavorable at this time for cyclogenesis, with an easterly wind anomaly near the equator ahead of a new active phase of the MJO approaching from Africa. From next week onwards, as the MJO and a Kelvin wave move in over the west of the basin, a westerly wind anomaly should settle near the equator, yielding a better-defined NET pattern with enhanced vorticity. A low pressure area could then gradually form near 70E.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
As the MJO moves across the Indian Ocean, the pattern is expected to continue improving in early May, with increasing convergence within the NET. Consequently, models suggest a low risk of cyclogenesis over the central basin during the week of May 4th but this risk is currently negligible.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.