AWIO20 FMEE 031059
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/03 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 008/13 issued at 06 UTC sur la Forte Tempete Tropicale INDUSA. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

A short, poorly defined branch of the Monsoon Trough (MT) persists between 50oE and 65oE, near 7oS, extending to the INDUSA system. Convective activity is concentrated mainly in the vicinity of INDUSA and a more modest extent, over the northeastern edge of the basin.

The MT pattern is expected to dissipate this weekend as the Rossby wave moves away and the trade wind flow weakens due to INDUSA. A near-equatorial trough (NET) is then expected to begin forming over the eastern part of our basin, creating conditions unfavorable for cyclogenesis.

Severe Tropical Storm INDUSA : 
Information at 09 UTC : 
Estimated position : 15.8 S / 72.5 E
Movement : South-South-West, 14 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 60 kt
Estimated central pressure : 987 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Apart from INDUSA, development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Convergence and vorticity within the NET/MT over the eastern part of the basin and in the Australian region are expected to strengthen starting the weekend of April 1112 and into the following week, in conjunction with an improvement in the wave pattern. In this context, there is a low risk of a low-pressure system forming in the Australian region or at the edge of our area over the next 8 to 10 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.