AWIO20 FMEE 281123
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/28 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin shows a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern east of 75E. Further west, easterly winds are dominant at surface level, except for a weak low-pressure area northeast of the Seychelles. Convective activity is weak to moderate near the MT and locally near the Seychelles and within the Mozambique Channel. Elsewhere, it is weak.

This context, currently unfavorable to cyclogenesis, is related to the presence of the MJO dry phase over our basin. With the MJO shifting eastward, the MT should also become less active in the eastern part of the basin, next week.

Apart from Post Tropical Depression HORACIO passing over the south of the basin, development of a new tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

Around the 10th of March, the arrival of a strong Kelvin wave from the west could result in the return of an active Monsoon Trough to the northeast of Madagascar.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.