AWIO20 FMEE 071231
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/07 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin now exhibits a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, east of 65E and between 4 and 10S, associated with the establishment of westerly winds along the equator. Convective activity is moderate on the edges of the NET. The remnants of INDUSA dissipated overnight within a baroclinic zone south of 40S.

The current NET pattern over the eastern part of the basin is being favored by the equatorial westerly wind anomaly in the wake of the moist MJO. But this conducive anomaly should gradually recede eastward as the dry phase of the MJO settles in over the Indian ocean by mid-April. Moreover, the lack of equatorial convergence as well as anomalously dry air in the trade wind flow south of the NET should limit chances of cyclogenesis over the next few days.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
A new Rossby wave is expected to enter the eastern part of the Indian ocean around April 11-12, which should enhance vorticity at the eastern end of the NET, especially in the Australian area of responsibility, where a low-pressure system could end up forming.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.