AWIO20 FMEE 021122
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/05/02 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin exhibits a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern between 3 and 6o S and east of 55oE. Convective activity is moderate on either side of the NET.

Even though the MJO is active over the basin, current conditions remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis due to a lack of convergence on the equatorial side, which limits vorticity within the NET.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
A passing equatorial Rosby wave followed by a Kelvin wave could slightly increase vorticity over the central and eastern parts of the basin by the end of next week. It is therefore possible that at least one low-pressure system could develop over the central or eastern parts of the basin over the next 10 days, as suggested by some ensemble and AI models.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.