AWIO20 FMEE 051045
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/08/05 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Most of the basin remains in a winter configuration. However, a poorly defined near-equatorial trough (NET) remains present over the Indonesian region, driven by a westerly wind surge along the equator. Convective activity is locally moderate in the far northeast of the basin near this weak NET.

This equatorial westerly wind surge and the associated NET pattern have been initiated last weekend by the passage of a Kelvin wave as well as a weak moist phase of the MJO, which are now moving away eastward. The current passage of an equatorial Rossby wave has also contributed to the formation of a broad and elongated weak low-pressure area between 90 and 95oE. This low should gradually move westward towards our basin by the end of the week, although filling up within an increasingly poorly conducive environment as these various equatorial waves move away. The associated risk of cyclogenesis thus remains near zero, with insufficient low-level convergence and moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.