AWIO20 FMEE 081008
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/04/08 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin now exhibits a Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern, east of 60oE and between 5oS and 10oS, associated with the establishment of westerly winds along the equator. Convective activity is moderate within the convergence zones along the equatorial edge of the NET and north of the Mozambique Channel.

In a positive SIOD context, the low-frequency easterly anomaly remains pronounced. However, it is counteracted by a westerly anomaly trailing the wet phase of the MJO. After its passage, an anticyclonic equatorial Rossby wave once again reinforces the easterly anomaly. With no westerly surge and thus a lack of convergence near the equator, conditions remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis.

Development of a moderate tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
A new Rossby wave is expected to enter the eastern part of the Indian ocean around April 10-12, which should enhance vorticity at the eastern end of the NET, especially in the Australian area of responsibility, where a low-pressure system could end up forming.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.