AWIO20 FMEE 291156
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/07/29 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is weak in the area where the trade winds slow down north and east of Chagos archipelago.

The wave environment remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis with low level easterly wind anomalies along the equator. However, the interaction of a Kelvin wave and a Rossby wave could lead to the temporary return of a Near-Equatorial Trough over the eastern part of the basin by this weekend.



10-day outlook:
Nothing to report

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.