AWIO20 FMEE 221204
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/07/22 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is weak in the trade wind slowdown area near the equator.

The wave environment remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis with low level easterly wind anomalies along the equator.

South of the basin :
By the end of the week, a baroclinic low could develop over the central part of the basin in the subtropical area, driven by the interaction between a mid-latitude trough and a warm low-level airmass. As it moves southward, the strong wind shear could decrease in a still-unstable environment characterized by cold upper-level air and surface waters near 20oC. A tropical transition cannot therefore be ruled out under these conditions on Saturday. However, the likelihood that this system will reach subtropical storm status appears limited for the time being.

For the next 5 days, there is no potential for the development into a subtropical storm in this area.



10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.