AWIO20 FMEE 051131
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2025/07/05 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin is in a winter pattern. Convective activity is mostly weak over the basin, with a few thunderstorm clusters in the slowing trade winds.
However, in the Indonesian region and along the 90oE line, deep convection has recently increased near a broad and poorly-defined weak low pressure area, which doesn't have any development potential in the short run.



Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

Later on, by mid-July, the large-scale background could become more conducive to the development of a tropical system. On the eastern edge of the basin, the crossing of a Kelvin wave and an equatorial Rossby wave could lead to the development of a Near Equatorial Trough, within which a tropical low could develop.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.