AWIO20 FMEE 171059
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/06/17 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin exhibits a winter configuration despite the presence of a weak near-equatorial trough (NET) along 3oS and between 60oE and 80oE. Convection is weak on either side of this NET but locally moderate on its western end.

This NET branch is temporarily favored by a westerly wind anomaly along the equator occurring within a more conductive wave pattern (Rossby and Kelvin waves, as well as an incoming more active phase of the MJO). Nevertheless, the associated vorticity and convergence remain weak due to the current winter season. Furthermore, the low-frequency pattern maintains a dry and sinking anomaly over the basin. Thus, conditions remain unfavorable for cyclogenesis.

Development of a tropical storm is not expected over the next 5 days.

10-day outlook:
Nothing to report.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.