AXAU01 ADRM 231921
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE
AT: 1920 UTC 23/11/2025
NAME: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA
IDENTIFIER: 02U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.7S
LONGITUDE: 128.5E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 10NM (20 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (249 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 4 KNOTS (8 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 100 KNOTS (185 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 140 KNOTS (260 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 35 NM (65 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 45 NM (85 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 55 NM (100 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (15 KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1003 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 115 NM (215 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL
PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  24/0000: 13.8S 128.2E:     025 (040):  095  (175):  947
+12:  24/0600: 13.9S 127.9E:     030 (055):  085  (155):  957
+18:  24/1200: 13.9S 127.5E:     040 (070):  075  (140):  966
+24:  24/1800: 13.9S 127.2E:     045 (080):  050  (095):  985
+36:  25/0600: 14.1S 126.6E:     060 (115):  030  (055):  997
+48:  25/1800: 14.4S 126.2E:     080 (145):  025  (045):  999
+60:  26/0600: 15.0S 125.9E:     115 (215):  025  (045): 1000
+72:  26/1800: 15.7S 125.8E:     155 (290):  025  (045): 1000
+96:  27/1800:             :              :            :
+120: 28/1800:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINA IS A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN WA COASTLINE.

CENTRE FIX IS GOOD, BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA WITH
FINA DISPLAYING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE.

INTENSITY IS 100 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK,
REMAINING
RESONABLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST OBJECTIVE AIDS AND EARLIER SAR
IMAGERY.

DVORAK: 3-HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 5.5 TO 6.0 USING AN EYE PATTERN,
SURROUNDING SHADE
IS CMG WITH W OR B EYE AND CMG SURROUND. RECENTLY, HAVE SEEN FURTHER
WARMING
AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE EYE SUGGESTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION,
AND A
FIRMER DT ESTIMATE OF 6.0. MET IS 6.0 WITH A D TREND, PAT AGREES AT
6.0. FT/CI
6.0/6.0  BASED ON 3 HOURLY DT.

LATEST AVAILABLE CIMSS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MIN WINDS) REMAIN
SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. FOR 1730 UTC: ADT 84 KN (CI=4.8), AIDT 100 KN, DPRINT
106 KN,
SATCON 91 KN. ADT SEEMS TO HAVE A LOW BIAS WITH A STRUGGLE TO
RECOGNISE THE EYE
PATTERN/SCENE, ADT RAW T NUMBERS WHEN EYE IS RECOGNISED JUMP TO 6.8
TO 7.1.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADT AND RESULTANT SATCON.

WHILE FLUCTUATING IN ITS APPEARANCE IN EIR IMAGERY IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS,
PRESENTATION HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT RECENTLY. FINA IS MAINTAINING
ITS VERY
COMPACT CIRCULATION AND SOLID CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY
CONSISTENT IN FINA CONTINUING ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE JOSEPH
BONAPARTE
GULF IN THE SHORT TERM TAKING IT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST KIMBERLEY
COAST OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE KIMBERLEY COAST LATER
MONDAY OR
EARLY TUESDAY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON
A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES.

MOST MODELS HAVE CALLED FOR INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE DURING
MONDAY, HOWEVER LATEST AVAILABLE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS AT 12UTC
INDICATES
NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THIS, COUPLED WITH
OTHER
SUPPORTING FACTORS INCLUDING WARM SST, OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MEANS THAT FINA COULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT SIX
HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS LATER ON MONDAY AS CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS
FAVOURABLE. ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY DELAYED A LITTLE, MOST GUIDANCE
STILL
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
DRY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL AIR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND EVENTUAL LAND
INTERACTION, IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THOUGH FINA IS
EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARDS DURING MONDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE
NORTHEAST KIMBERLEY COAST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA AS A SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND
THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER LAND.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
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