AXAU01 APRF 060729
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE
AT: 0729 UTC 06/03/2026
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 30U
DATA AT: 0600 UTC
LATITUDE: 15.8S
LONGITUDE: 113.4E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: NORTHWEST (314 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 35 KNOTS (65 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT:W0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1000 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 200 NM (370 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL
PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  06/1200: 16.0S 112.9E:     025 (050):  035  (065):  992
+12:  06/1800: 16.2S 112.3E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  992
+18:  07/0000: 16.4S 111.6E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  993
+24:  07/0600: 16.6S 110.8E:     045 (090):  035  (065):  993
+36:  07/1800: 17.2S 109.2E:     055 (095):  035  (065):  993
+48:  08/0600: 18.1S 107.1E:     060 (115):  030  (055):  997
+60:  08/1800: 18.9S 105.1E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  997
+72:  09/0600: 19.8S 103.1E:     080 (145):  030  (055):  996
+96:  10/0600: 19.8S  99.2E:     100 (190):  030  (055):  996
+120: 11/0600: 19.4S  95.0E:     135 (255):  030  (055):  996
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 30U HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN AN
UNFAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL LOW 30U IS LOCATED WELL NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KARRATHA AND HAS
RECENTLY
MOVED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN
THE ANALYSED POSITION, WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTRE EVIDENT ON
THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
COLLAPSED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT OF 1.0 BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN WITH LESS THAN
1.25 DEG
FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. MET IS 0.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR W
TREND, AND
PAT ADJUSTED TO 0.5. FT IS 1.0 AND CI REDUCED TO 1.5. NO OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE. INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY
PASSES
(ASCAT 0122UTC, AND OSCAT 0400UTC) WHICH OBSERVED 35 KNOTS IN THE
NORTHWEST
QUADRANT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVOURABLE, BETWEEN 26
29C ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, CIMSS UPPER WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY
STRONG
EASTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
ADVERSELY
IMPACTED BY THIS SHEAR, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ERODING NEAR THE CENTRE.
RECENT
ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT, SUPPORTING A
REDUCTION IN THE
RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO A LOW CHANCE.

THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY,
ALTHOUGH A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTRE,
THROUGH TO
SUNDAY MORNING.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER BULLETINS FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS IT
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