AXAU01 APRF 011332 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE AT: 1332 UTC 01/01/2026 NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY IDENTIFIER: 10U DATA AT: 1200 UTC LATITUDE: 13.9S LONGITUDE: 109.1E LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM) MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHEAST (143 DEG) SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 11 KNOTS (21 KM/H) MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 40 KNOTS (75 KM/H) MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H) CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 35 NM (65 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM) RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: NM ( KM) RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM) DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM) FORECAST DATA DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE (UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA +06: 01/1800: 14.4S 109.6E: 040 (080): 050 (095): 990 +12: 02/0000: 14.8S 110.2E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 986 +18: 02/0600: 15.2S 110.5E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 982 +24: 02/1200: 15.4S 110.8E: 065 (120): 060 (110): 981 +36: 03/0000: 15.6S 110.1E: 080 (150): 050 (095): 989 +48: 03/1200: 15.8S 109.0E: 090 (165): 040 (075): 995 +60: 04/0000: 16.1S 107.5E: 105 (195): 035 (065): 999 +72: 04/1200: 16.4S 105.8E: 130 (235): 030 (055): 1002 +96: 05/1200: 16.9S 101.5E: 195 (365): 025 (045): 1005 +120: 06/1200: 16.3S 96.5E: 225 (415): 020 (035): 1006 REMARKS: TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY (10U), LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE OF IGGY IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED BENEATH DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS HAS ASSISTED WITH THE ANALYSIS, PROVIDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS COMPACT, WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AT TIMES. DVORAK ANALYSIS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS OBSCURED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND ANALYSING THE CURVED BAND IS AT TIMES DIFFICULT. A CURVED BAND WITH WRAP OF 0.7 GIVES A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 ON A STRONG DEVELOPING, AND PAT IS ADJUSTED TO 3.0. FT/CI IS 3.0. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (1-MIN MEAN) AT 1240 UTC IS ADT 49KN, AIDT 39KN, DPRINT 43KN. INTENSITY ANALYSED AT 40KN CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK AND BROADLY SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 DEGREES C. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND DURING FRIDAY. DURING SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND 10U MOVES SOUTH INTO A REGION WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND INCREASING DRY AIR. AS WELL AS THE LESS FAVOURABLE UPPER SUPPORT, 10U IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED SOUTH OF ABOUT 15S, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE, AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. IGGY IS A SMALL SYSTEM AND MAY REMAIN BRIEFLY POSITIONED IN A PARTICULARLY FAVOURABLE POCKET JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WITH DRY AIR CONFINED TO THE WEST, AS INDICATED IN CURRENT MIMIC IMAGERY. THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND BRIEF SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT MAY DETERIORATE MORE RAPIDLY, AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 10U IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ONCE THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY, A UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAN BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TAKES 10U TO THE WEST. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA == THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 01/1930 UTC.=