AXNT20 KNHC 280527
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough remains over West Africa. The ITCZ extends from
03N20W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
from 02N to 05N between 15W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A large complex of thunderstorms is active off the coast of South
Texas, associated with a vigorous mid to upper level trough moving
across the region. A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high
pressure off the Carolinas to the western Gulf, north of a trough
off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE
winds across the basin, accompanied by moderate to rough seas.  

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters Sun, supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds on Fri, and 
moderate to fresh winds Sat and Sun. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will be 
associated with the strongest winds. A cold front is forecast to 
enter the NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Panhandle to
near Brownsville, Texas by Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern
Colombia and ridging to the north is maintaining moderate trade
winds across much of the Caribbean. Strong to near-gale force
winds are active off Colombia, along with rough seas. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are also ongoing through the Windward Passage and 
in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate seas
persist elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force
speeds at night and early morning through the upcoming weekend.
Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, and in the  
Windward Passage tonight through Fri night. Similar wind speeds
will develop in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola 
tonight through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. 
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing
to light to gentle in the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. 
Northerly swell may impact the Atlantic Passages this weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 300 nm ahead of the front, near a
pre-frontal trough that reaches toward Puerto Rico. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters
west of the trough. The front and the pre- frontal trough break 
up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 
mb high pressure cell off the Carolinas, and a 1035 mb high 
pressure area just west of the Azores. This pattern supports 
fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas across much of the 
tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W. Outside of 
this large region, E to NE winds are moderate to locally fresh 
with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move
southeastward across the forecast waters through late Sat while 
weakening. expect fresh to strong NE winds and building seas of up
to 12 ft in the wake of the front. High pressure will follow the 
front. Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend 
as the high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may 
move off the SE United States coast by early Tue. 

$$
Christensen