AXPZ20 KNHC 181605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Erick is centered near 13.9N 96.0W, or about 130 nm SSE of Puerto Angel, Mexico, at 18/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Erick is becoming increasingly better organized and continues to exhibit larger and deeper convective banding structure. Numerous strong convection is generally present within about 120 nm of the center. Peak seas are rapidly increasing, and are now likely around 25 ft (7.5 m). Erick is expected to continue moving NW with some increase in forward speed before landfall, which on the current forecast track, will be early Thu along the southern coast of Mexico. Rapid strengthening is anticipated and Erick is forecast to reach major hurricane status before landfall late tonight or early Thu. Mariners should use extreme caution navigating the offshore waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions related to Hurricane Erick. Hurricane Erick is likely produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals in excess of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border and to 12N88W. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Erick near 09N100W to 10N113W and to 09N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical Storm Erick, scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for the latest information on Hurricane Erick. Elsewhere, a weak trough, remnants of Dalila, is analyzed from near 21N114W to near 17N117W. No significant convection is occurring with this feature. Otherwise, high pressure is present west of Baja California allowing for generally moderate or weaker winds. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California, except in the far southern section where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present. Seas are 3 ft are less over the Gulf, except for seas of 3 to 4 ft over the southern section of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the forecast period. Along with these winds rough northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through Thu night. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh south to southwest over the southern part of the Gulf of California will diminish today. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, recently upgraded Hurricane Erick is now well NW of the area, to the SW of the Gulf of Tehunatepec, moving away from the region. Winds and seas offshore Guatemala will continue to subside today. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the upcoming weekend while expanding westward. Winds will be moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to mostly fresh speeds in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will subside some Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on conditions related to Hurricane Erick. Broad surface ridging extend from a high well northwest of the discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of about 115W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area wil shift slightly southward through Fri. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week. $$ Konarik