FEYG20 ETGX 311300 M E D I U M R A N G E F O R E C A S T FOR SOUTH CROATIA, BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA, KOSOVO, NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF FYROM AND ALBANIA VALID FROM FRIDAY, 02ND OF JUNE 2017 TILL WEDNESDAY, 07TH OF JUNE 2017 ISSUED BY BGIC 1. GENERAL REMARKS ************************************************* P L E A S E N O T E, THAT THIS IS THE LAST ISSUE OF FEYG20 ETGX DD1300 DUE TO DISSEMINATION OF NATO JOAF / GENERAL WEATHER ADVISORY TEXT SUPPLEMENT (FXEU52 ETGX DD1700) AFTER 2017-06-01. ************************************************* THE MODEL RESULTS ARE NICE IN LINE. OF CAUSE WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE NOT EASY TO FORECAST, SO THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST OF THE UPPER LOW OR TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE BALKANS AT THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATEST AVAILABLE ICON RESULTS. 2. S Y N O P T I C D E V E L O P M E N T TILL SUNDAY, 04TH OF JUNE 2017: PRESENTLY WE SEE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING ITALY AND THE BALKANS, UPPER TOUGHS CAN BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN BLACK SEA AND THE PYRENEES. ALL WILL MOVE EASTWARDS SLOWLY. ON FRIDAY(02) THE RIDGE CAN BE FOUND STRET- CHING FROM GREECE TO SLOWAKIA, AN OLD AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE AOR, CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS OVER THE AOR. THE FOLLOWING WEAK UPPER LOW CAN BE FOUND OVER WESTERN ALPS, WITH A TROUGH TOWARDS ALGERIA. IT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS A LINE AUSTRIA – SICILIA IN THE EVENING. ON SATURDAY(03) THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO WESTERN BAL- KANS. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOO. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND FROM SLOVAKIA TO WESTERN BULGARIA. ON SUNDAY(04) THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE OVER THE BALKANS. HOWEVER, IT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN ROMANIA AND BULGARIA AREAS. THE WESTERN BALKANS WILL SEE ALMOST NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECAUSE OF THE NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVEC- TION BEHIND OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE ALPS. WEST OF IT A MORE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER FRANCE INTO THE MEDITERRANEAN. 3. T A B L E FORECAST FOR SOUTH CROATIA AND BOSNIA HERCEGOVINA: PARAMETER AREAS : 02ND DAY : 03RD DAY : 04TH DAY : 02ND : 03RD : 04TH SURFACE- ADC : 24005 : 26007 : 18005 WIND EAST : VRB03 : VRB03 : VRB03 (DEG KN) HILLS : 02003 : VRB03 : 20005 MON : VRB03 : 26003 : 24005 VISIBILITY ADC : 10 : 10 : 10 (KM) EAST : 10 : 10 : 10 HILLS : 10 : 10 : 10 MON : 8 : 10 : 10 CEILING ADC : - : - : - (HFT GND) EAST : - : - : 090 HILLS : 050 : - : 090 MON : 030 : - : 090 T MIN/T MAX ADC : 18/28 : 18/28 : 18/28 (DEG C) EAST : 17/26 : 17/25 : 15/30 HILLS : 14/22 : 12/23 : 12/23 MON : 9/15 : 7/16 : 8/16 FREEZING- LEVEL ENTIRE : 120 : 115 : 115 (HFT MSL) PRECIPI- TATION ENTIRE : 0-15 CON : 0-5 CON : 0-2 CON (MM/24H) H I N T S : ADC = ADRIATIC COAST (REF. HEIGHT 300 M NN) EAST = AREA SARAJEVO - TUZLA - BANJA LUKA (REF. HEIGHT 500 M NN) HILLS = HILLY AREA (REF. HEIGHT 1000 M NN) MON = CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (REF. HEIGHT 1600 M NN) 4. TABLE FORECAST FOR KOSOVO / NW FYROM AND ALBANIA: PARAMETER/ AREAS : 02ND DAY : 03RD DAY : 04TH DAY : 02ND : 03RD : 04TH SFC-WIND KOS/NWFYR : VRB03 : VRB03 : VRB03 (DEG KN) ALCOA : 30005 : 30007 : 28005 ALHIGH : VRB03 : 32003 : VRB05 VISIBILITY KOS/NWFYR : 10 : 10 : 10 (KM) ALCOA : 10 : 10 : 10 ALHIGH : 10 : 10 : 10 CEILING KOS/NWFYR : 090 : 090 : - (HFT GND) ALCOA : 090 : - : - ALHIGH : 090 : - : - T MIN/T MAX KOS/NWFYR : 16/28 : 15/27 : 14/27 (DEG C) ALCOA : 15/27 : 17/27 : 15/28 ALHIGH : 17/27 : 16/28 : 16/27 FRZ-LEVEL ENTIRE : 125 : 120 : 120 (HFT MSL) PCPN ENTIRE : 0-3 CON : 0-5 CON : - (MM/24H) H I N T S : KOS/NWFYR = KOSOVO AND NW PARTS OF FYROM (REF. HEIGHT 500M NN) ALCOA = ALBANIA COASTAL AREA (REF. HEIGHT 100M NN) ALHIGH = ALBANIA HIGHLANDS (REF. HEIGHT 500M NN) 5. R E M A R K S : THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE (CON), SO THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER IN PLACES THAN GIVEN IN THE TABLES. 6. R E M A R K A B L E P H E N O M E N A / H A Z A R D S : ESPECIALLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ... ON FRIDAY(02) MOSTLY FROM BOSNIA OVER KOSOVO TO SOUTHERN BULGARIA; ON SATURDAY(03) MOSTLY FROM HUNGARY OVER SERBIA TO MACEDONIA; ON SUNDAY(04) MOSTLY FROM WESTERN ROMANIA TO WESTERN BULGARIA AND EASTERN MACEDONIA; ON MONDAY(05) MOSTLY FROM WESTERN ROMANIA OVER SOUTHERN SERBIA, WESTERN BULGARIA, KOSOVO, TO SOUTHERN BOSNIA; ON TUESDAY(06) OVER MOST OF THE AOR (EXCEPT OF NORTHERN CROATIA AND NORTHWESTERN SERBIA), PARTLY HEAVY. 7. FURTHER O U T L O O K FROM MONDAY, 05TH OF JUNE 2017 TILL WEDNESDAY, 07TH OF JUNE 2017: THE THROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY(05) AND WILL CAUSE A CUT-OFF LOW OVER CENTRAL ITALY. PVA AHEAD OF IT WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ITALY AND ALSO AGAIN OVER BOSNIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORM LINE FROM WESTERN BULGARIA TO WESTERN ROMANIA WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. ON TUESDAY(06) THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO STRAIT OF OTRANTO AND WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST PARTS OF THE AOR, EXCEPT NORTHERN CROATIA AND SLOVENIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER THAN THE DAYS BEFORE. ON WEDNESDAY(07) THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN. 8. S O I L S T A T E TILL WEDNESDAY, 07TH OF JUNE 2017: STARTING DRY OVER BOSNIA, ALBANIA, AND MOST PARTS OF CROATIA; MOIST OVER SERBIA MACEDONIA, KOSOVO, AND INLAND AREAS OF MONTENEGRO. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE WILL BE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND THE SOIL STATE WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE, PARTLY DRY, PARTLY WET, MAYBE EVEN FLOODED IN PLACES FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME LOCALLY. 9. A S T R O N O M I C A L D A T A FOR SARAJEVO: 02ND 03RD 04TH SUNRISE : 03:06 03:06 03:05Z SUNSET : 18:22 18:23 18:24Z FOR PRISTINA: 02ND 03RD 04TH SUNRISE : 03:01 03:01 03:00Z SUNSET : 18:06 18:07 18:07Z 10. W A T E R T E M P E R A T U R E ADRIATIC SEA ( AREA ZADAR-SPLIT): 20-22 DEG CEN ADRIATIC SEA ( WEST OF ALBANIA) : 20-21 DEG CEN AREA THESSALONIKI : 19-20 DEG CEN