FGUS62 KALR 041359 ESGALR SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK Southern Region NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, Atlanta GA 900 AM est Wed Mar 4 2020 ...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA...NEAR NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA... Historically for Northeast Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and North Florida the river flood season begins in early January. The number of river flood events increases through late winter with a peak in early to mid March and ending in April for the region. The forecast for above normal flooding means that flooding will likely be more widespread and more frequent than typical. This is the dry season in central and south Florida. Overall...The February time frame was wet for most of the southeast U.S. That trend will continue into March as we have seen well above normal precipitation along the northern two thirds of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia...spots of above and below normal in the southern parts of those states and northern Florida. The potential for flooding is still above normal with many rivers still above normal, ground conditions still wet, and the potential for above normal rain still forecast. Central and south Florida don't typically expect flooding this time of year and are not expecting it this year also. Past Precipitation...In the last 30 days, based on SERFC multisensor precipitation estimates, well above normal precipitation along the northern two thirds of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia...some above and below normal in southern parts of those states and northern Florida. The 90 day departures from normal show a similar pattern. 28-day average streamflows...All of the area normal to above normal for this time of year with many USGS stations showing above much above normal and some much above normal. The current daily averages also show above normal for most of the area. Reservoirs...Reservoirs throughout the region remain at or above their target pool levels for early March. Some reservoirs are well above their target pools for early March and are trying to bring them down to more normal levels. Rivers below these dams will likely remain above normal until they can draw their pools down. Snow pack...There is no snow pack in this area. Short term rainfall...The 7-day period ending March 11 indicates rain across the Southeast early in the period with the next rain chances coming at the end of the week. This pattern continues with rain events moving through regularly...about every 5 days. The forecast continues to call for this pattern to continue. Long term precipitation...Based on CPC long lead outlooks, March shows above normal precipitation for northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Below normal for March along the gulf coast from Mississippi around the gulf through Florida...near normal between the two extremes. The seasonal outlook from March through May shows chances for above normal during that time period. To see the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center...here is the link: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov The SERFC issues a variety of products through the year to update the outlook for water resources. The SERFC water resources outlook is updated each month and can be found a the following address: https://tinyurl.com/y94dndv4 You can also find it from our home page which is located at www.weather.gov/serfc. In the Water Supply pulldown menu is the Water Resources Outlook. HAMILL