FGUS63 KMSR 231359 ESGDES DES MOINES RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 858 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 1425.0 1426.0 1428.0 10 13 6 10 <5 <5 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 17.0 18.0 22.0 28 28 11 13 <5 <5 DAKI4 20.0 24.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boone River WBCI4 14.0 17.0 19.0 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 14.0 16.0 17.0 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 19.0 21.0 23.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 PROI4 15.0 18.0 20.0 46 57 28 34 17 23 :South Raccoon River REDI4 20.0 24.0 27.0 8 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Raccoon River VNMI4 17.0 22.0 23.0 26 32 7 9 <5 7 DMWI4 36.0 38.0 40.0 18 22 7 8 <5 <5 DEMI4 12.0 16.0 25.0 55 69 24 32 <5 <5 :North River NRWI4 22.0 25.0 26.0 9 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Middle River IDNI4 23.0 26.0 28.0 6 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South River AKWI4 29.0 30.0 32.0 <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 25.0 30.0 32.0 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Des Moines River WDOM5 19.0 21.0 25.0 6 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 JCKM5 12.0 12.5 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 ESVI4 10.0 13.0 14.5 16 23 6 6 <5 <5 EMTI4 11.0 13.0 15.0 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 HBTI4 10.0 13.0 14.0 20 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 FODI4 10.5 16.0 17.0 23 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 STRI4 19.0 25.0 27.0 16 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 DMOI4 23.0 26.0 30.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 DESI4 24.0 26.0 30.0 45 52 15 24 <5 <5 EDYI4 63.0 68.0 70.0 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 OTMI4 11.5 15.0 19.0 13 23 6 7 <5 6 KEQI4 22.0 25.0 27.0 10 16 5 6 <5 <5 SFLM7 18.0 22.0 25.0 25 35 10 11 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231358/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 1419.4/ 1419.4/ 1419.4/ 1420.0/ 1421.7/ 1424.9/ 1426.9 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 9.6/ 10.5/ 13.8/ 15.2/ 17.1/ 18.4/ 19.4 DAKI4 10.0/ 10.4/ 12.0/ 13.8/ 16.1/ 18.3/ 19.5 :Boone River WBCI4 3.8/ 4.8/ 5.6/ 7.7/ 9.7/ 11.9/ 14.2 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 4.1/ 5.6/ 7.1/ 9.4/ 11.7/ 13.0/ 14.1 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 6.6/ 8.0/ 9.9/ 11.5/ 14.9/ 18.0/ 18.9 PROI4 7.5/ 9.6/ 12.1/ 14.7/ 18.6/ 21.9/ 23.0 :South Raccoon River REDI4 3.6/ 4.9/ 5.8/ 8.6/ 11.3/ 18.5/ 23.6 :Raccoon River VNMI4 5.9/ 6.6/ 8.8/ 12.7/ 17.2/ 20.8/ 22.8 DMWI4 23.5/ 24.2/ 26.5/ 30.8/ 35.1/ 37.3/ 38.9 DEMI4 5.5/ 6.3/ 8.8/ 12.3/ 15.8/ 18.4/ 19.8 :North River NRWI4 5.4/ 8.3/ 12.4/ 15.4/ 19.3/ 21.9/ 22.5 :Middle River IDNI4 8.7/ 11.1/ 13.7/ 15.2/ 17.6/ 22.0/ 23.6 :South River AKWI4 6.2/ 7.9/ 10.4/ 12.1/ 18.9/ 26.2/ 29.0 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 4.8/ 6.0/ 7.5/ 11.6/ 15.1/ 22.4/ 26.2 :Des Moines River WDOM5 11.3/ 11.3/ 12.2/ 13.8/ 15.8/ 18.5/ 19.2 JCKM5 8.2/ 8.2/ 8.7/ 9.3/ 10.0/ 11.1/ 11.7 ESVI4 3.4/ 3.4/ 4.5/ 6.2/ 8.1/ 11.3/ 13.2 EMTI4 2.6/ 2.7/ 3.8/ 6.2/ 8.1/ 11.2/ 12.1 HBTI4 5.2/ 5.4/ 6.4/ 7.9/ 9.5/ 10.8/ 11.9 FODI4 5.4/ 5.8/ 6.9/ 8.6/ 10.4/ 11.8/ 13.8 STRI4 8.2/ 9.7/ 11.0/ 14.3/ 17.3/ 21.0/ 24.7 DMOI4 16.0/ 16.7/ 18.4/ 19.6/ 20.5/ 21.9/ 22.9 DESI4 15.2/ 15.9/ 19.7/ 23.3/ 24.9/ 27.7/ 28.7 EDYI4 53.8/ 55.1/ 58.9/ 59.3/ 60.4/ 62.3/ 65.1 OTMI4 4.8/ 5.5/ 7.8/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 12.2/ 16.4 KEQI4 13.7/ 14.2/ 16.3/ 17.4/ 19.4/ 22.1/ 25.0 SFLM7 11.2/ 12.1/ 14.4/ 15.7/ 18.0/ 22.6/ 24.0 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231358/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :West Fork Des Moines River AVOM5 1419.2/ 1419.0/ 1418.8/ 1418.4/ 1418.1/ 1417.9/ 1417.7 :East Fork Des Moines River AGNI4 8.2/ 8.0/ 7.6/ 7.2/ 6.5/ 5.9/ 5.6 DAKI4 9.2/ 9.0/ 8.6/ 8.2/ 7.8/ 7.7/ 7.6 :Boone River WBCI4 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.3 :Beaver Creek GRMI4 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1 :North Raccoon River EFWI4 5.6/ 5.4/ 5.2/ 5.0/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7 PROI4 5.3/ 4.9/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 3.7/ 3.4/ 3.3 :South Raccoon River REDI4 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.8 :Raccoon River VNMI4 3.6/ 3.3/ 3.0/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.1 DMWI4 21.2/ 21.0/ 20.6/ 20.3/ 19.9/ 19.6/ 19.5 DEMI4 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.5 :North River NRWI4 5.9/ 5.6/ 5.1/ 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.5 :Middle River IDNI4 7.4/ 7.2/ 7.0/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 6.7/ 6.7 :South River AKWI4 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.2/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1/ 5.1 :Cedar Creek BSSI4 4.9/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.3 :Des Moines River WDOM5 11.4/ 11.2/ 10.8/ 10.3/ 9.9/ 9.3/ 8.5 JCKM5 8.2/ 8.1/ 7.8/ 7.5/ 7.2/ 6.8/ 6.2 ESVI4 3.4/ 3.2/ 2.8/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 1.8/ 1.5 EMTI4 2.4/ 1.9/ 1.4/ 0.8/ 0.4/ 0.1/ -0.0 HBTI4 4.8/ 4.6/ 4.1/ 3.6/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.5 FODI4 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.4/ 4.0/ 3.5/ 3.3/ 3.2 STRI4 6.7/ 6.4/ 5.8/ 5.3/ 4.8/ 4.4/ 4.3 DMOI4 15.0/ 14.9/ 14.5/ 14.2/ 13.8/ 13.6/ 13.5 DESI4 12.2/ 12.0/ 11.1/ 10.1/ 9.5/ 9.0/ 9.0 EDYI4 50.4/ 50.1/ 49.0/ 48.3/ 47.6/ 47.2/ 47.1 OTMI4 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.3/ 1.9/ 1.4/ 1.1/ 0.9 KEQI4 12.1/ 11.9/ 11.2/ 10.7/ 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.7 SFLM7 9.2/ 8.8/ 7.8/ 7.1/ 6.2/ 5.7/ 5.6 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$