FGUS63 KMSR 221629 ESGKSJ KALAMAZOO AND ST. JOSEPH RIVER BASINS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1126 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Kalamazoo River MARM4 8.0 9.0 10.0 10 13 9 9 9 8 :Battle Creek BCRM4 4.0 5.0 6.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kalamazoo River BTCM4 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CMSM4 9.0 10.0 11.0 8 8 7 5 5 <5 RCMM4 17.0 19.0 21.0 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St Joseph River BURM4 6.5 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Portage River VCKM4 5.5 7.0 8.0 8 6 7 5 5 <5 :St Joseph River TRVM4 7.0 9.0 11.0 26 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 MOTM4 8.0 9.0 10.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Branch Elkhart River CPEI3 6.0 7.0 8.0 22 11 9 <5 <5 <5 :Elkhart River GSHI3 7.0 9.0 11.0 11 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St Joseph River EKMI3 24.0 25.0 27.0 13 7 8 <5 <5 <5 SBNI3 5.5 8.0 9.0 21 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 NILM4 11.0 14.0 15.0 14 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0527 Z DH12 /DC2405221626/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Kalamazoo River MARM4 4.8/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.3/ 6.0/ 8.1/ 11.2 :Battle Creek BCRM4 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.4/ 1.6/ 1.9/ 2.5/ 3.3 :Kalamazoo River BTCM4 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.9/ 4.3/ 4.8/ 6.6/ 8.3 CMSM4 4.7/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 6.3/ 8.5/ 11.0 RCMM4 12.5/ 12.5/ 13.0/ 13.7/ 14.7/ 16.2/ 18.2 :St Joseph River BURM4 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.4/ 6.1/ 6.2 :Portage River VCKM4 4.2/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.8/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 8.6 :St Joseph River TRVM4 4.9/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 8.0/ 8.9 MOTM4 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 5.3/ 6.4/ 7.5/ 8.3 :North Branch Elkhart River CPEI3 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.0/ 5.9/ 6.9/ 7.2 :Elkhart River GSHI3 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.5/ 5.6/ 7.3/ 8.7 :St Joseph River EKMI3 20.1/ 20.1/ 20.3/ 21.0/ 22.4/ 24.4/ 25.5 SBNI3 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.5/ 3.4/ 5.0/ 7.0/ 7.9 NILM4 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.2/ 8.1/ 9.5/ 12.1/ 13.4 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0527 Z DH12 /DC2405221626/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Kalamazoo River MARM4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2 :Battle Creek BCRM4 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 0.9 :Kalamazoo River BTCM4 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.8 CMSM4 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9 RCMM4 11.3/ 11.2/ 11.0/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.7/ 10.6 :St Joseph River BURM4 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7 :Portage River VCKM4 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6 :St Joseph River TRVM4 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6 MOTM4 3.4/ 3.1/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.4/ 2.1/ 2.0 :North Branch Elkhart River CPEI3 3.7/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.8 :Elkhart River GSHI3 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8 :St Joseph River EKMI3 18.9/ 18.6/ 18.4/ 18.1/ 17.9/ 17.7/ 17.6 SBNI3 0.9/ 0.7/ 0.4/ 0.2/ -0.0/ -0.2/ -0.2 NILM4 5.3/ 5.1/ 4.9/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.2/ 4.1 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$