FGUS63 KMSR 131438
ESGMSR

Upper Midwest Spring Snowmelt and Flood Potential Outlook
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 
0938 AM CST Wed Mar 13, 2024

This is the third and final Spring Flood Outlook to be provided this 
year, to discuss hydrologic conditions across the region, and 
the associated potential for spring flooding.

To view the NCRFC 2024 Spring Hydrologic Outlook webpage, which 
contains several reference graphics pertaining to the snowmelt 
season antecedent and current hydrometeorological conditions, refer 
to: http://www.weather.gov/NCRFC and select the “2024 Spring 
Hydrologic Outlook” news headline near the top of the page.

This outlook references information from many sources, including the 
following core partners:

 *United States Geological Survey (USGS)    
 *Regional Climate Centers (Midwest-MRCC and High Plains-HPRCC)    
 *US Drought Monitor (NIDIS)    
 *US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)    
 *NOAA, Office of Water Prediction (OWP), formerly known as    
   National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC)

The following 2024 Spring Outlook issuance dates have been set in 
coordination with all NWS regions and NWS headquarters:

National Weather Service issues Spring Flood Outlook with 
probabilistic products on:

 * Thursday, February 15, 2024 (Completed)   
 * Thursday, February 29, 2024 (Completed)
 * Thursday, March 14, 2024

NOAA National Spring Flood Outlook press briefing will be on:

 * Thursday, March 21, 2024

            ********************************
             Spring 2024 NCRFC Area Summary
            ********************************

Overall, the risk for flooding this spring is well below normal across 
the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) service area. Since
the initial outlook in mid-February, precipitation has been below 
normal across the NCRFC area which led to a further decreased threat 
for Spring flooding in the latest Long Range Outlook products.

A strong El-Nino this winter certainly played a large role in 
making for one of the warmest winters on record across the NCRFC
Service Area. Much of the precipitation that fell this winter came
in the form of rain. The snow the region did receive did not stick 
around given the extreme warmth. The lack of snowpack across the 
NCRFC service area remains historically low, with most places having 
no snow left at all by mid-March.

Last September, most of the NCRFC service area was categorized in a 
moderate drought or drier. Since that time, parts of the area have 
been relieved by October and December rainfall, as well as snow for 
portions of Iowa and southern Wisconsin this winter. While drought 
conditions have improved for some, significant areas of abnormally dry 
and drought conditions prevail. This is especially true across Iowa 
where severe to extreme drought persists. Due to the warm 
temperatures this winter, the frost depths are well below normal and 
most of the area is completely frost-free.

The below normal frost depth, anomalously little snow, and relatively 
dry soils leave future precipitation as the main driver of the risk 
going forward.

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SPD/NCRFC