FGUS63 KMSR 231756 ESGSMW SAGINAW RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1256 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Tobacco River BVTM4 12.0 14.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chippewa River MPTM4 8.0 11.0 13.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pine River ALMM4 8.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MPRM4 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Tittabawassee River MIDM4 24.0 25.0 28.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Shiawassee River OWOM4 7.0 9.0 10.0 10 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 FRGM4 10.0 14.0 15.0 14 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kearsley Creek DAVM4 10.0 11.0 12.0 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Flint River FLTM4 13.0 15.0 17.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cass River CSSM4 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 VSSM4 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FRNM4 17.0 20.0 25.0 17 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Saginaw River SAGM4 17.0 19.0 24.0 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231756/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Tobacco River BVTM4 2.7/ 3.1/ 4.5/ 5.9/ 7.0/ 7.9/ 8.4 :Chippewa River MPTM4 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.7/ 5.4/ 6.0/ 7.0/ 7.6 :Pine River ALMM4 2.1/ 2.2/ 3.1/ 4.8/ 5.6/ 6.8/ 7.4 MPRM4 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 6.8 :Tittabawassee River MIDM4 10.9/ 11.1/ 15.0/ 17.0/ 19.6/ 23.2/ 23.9 :Shiawassee River OWOM4 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.7/ 4.6/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 8.0 FRGM4 4.4/ 4.4/ 5.2/ 6.9/ 9.0/ 10.9/ 12.5 :Kearsley Creek DAVM4 4.6/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 6.6/ 8.3/ 9.9/ 10.4 :Flint River FLTM4 5.4/ 5.5/ 6.2/ 7.2/ 9.1/ 11.1/ 12.5 :Cass River CSSM4 5.5/ 6.2/ 7.3/ 8.0/ 9.5/ 10.5/ 11.0 VSSM4 3.0/ 3.7/ 5.8/ 7.1/ 9.2/ 10.5/ 11.3 FRNM4 5.7/ 6.5/ 9.8/ 12.2/ 15.9/ 17.5/ 18.5 :Saginaw River SAGM4 13.3/ 13.3/ 13.4/ 13.7/ 14.9/ 16.6/ 18.1 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231756/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Tobacco River BVTM4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1 :Chippewa River MPTM4 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1 :Pine River ALMM4 1.6/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.0/ 1.0 MPRM4 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4 :Tittabawassee River MIDM4 9.9/ 9.7/ 9.6/ 9.3/ 9.1/ 8.8/ 8.8 :Shiawassee River OWOM4 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.7 FRGM4 2.6/ 2.3/ 2.0/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 0.5 :Kearsley Creek DAVM4 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 3.0 :Flint River FLTM4 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8 :Cass River CSSM4 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6 VSSM4 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4 FRNM4 4.4/ 4.3/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.3 :Saginaw River SAGM4 13.1/ 13.1/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 13.0/ 12.9/ 12.9 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$