FGUS63 KMSR 231552 ESGSRS SOURIS RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1051 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Des Lacs River DESN8 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Souris River SHWN8 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 FOXN8 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 8 30 <5 12 <5 <5 MINN8 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 MION8 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LGNN8 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 SWRN8 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 VLVN8 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wintering River KLSN8 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Souris River TOWN8 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 20 48 9 19 <5 <5 BANN8 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 20 49 15 33 <5 <5 :Willow Creek WLCN8 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 12 35 7 10 <5 <5 :Souris River WSTN8 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 13 47 6 20 <5 12 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231551/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Des Lacs River DESN8 1639.5/ 1639.5/ 1639.5/ 1640.7/ 1642.4/ 1644.2/ 1645.7 :Souris River SHWN8 1606.8/ 1606.9/ 1607.5/ 1610.0/ 1612.4/ 1618.0/ 1620.4 FOXN8 1567.9/ 1568.3/ 1569.0/ 1570.5/ 1571.0/ 1571.6/ 1574.5 MINN8 1551.2/ 1551.4/ 1551.8/ 1553.6/ 1554.7/ 1556.1/ 1558.3 MION8 1541.5/ 1541.6/ 1541.6/ 1542.6/ 1543.1/ 1544.1/ 1544.8 LGNN8 1521.2/ 1521.8/ 1523.2/ 1525.7/ 1527.1/ 1531.5/ 1533.6 SWRN8 1507.9/ 1508.2/ 1509.5/ 1511.2/ 1512.5/ 1518.6/ 1520.0 VLVN8 1491.5/ 1492.0/ 1492.8/ 1495.3/ 1496.6/ 1504.2/ 1505.4 :Wintering River KLSN8 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.3/ 1504.5/ 1506.8/ 1508.1/ 1508.6 :Souris River TOWN8 1449.8/ 1449.8/ 1449.8/ 1451.5/ 1453.1/ 1455.6/ 1456.3 BANN8 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.8/ 1439.0/ 1441.4/ 1441.9 :Willow Creek WLCN8 1436.9/ 1436.9/ 1436.9/ 1437.1/ 1438.0/ 1444.3/ 1446.8 :Souris River WSTN8 1411.1/ 1411.1/ 1411.1/ 1411.8/ 1412.5/ 1415.5/ 1418.5 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231551/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Des Lacs River DESN8 1639.4/ 1639.3/ 1639.1/ 1639.0/ 1638.9/ 1638.9/ 1638.9 :Souris River SHWN8 1606.6/ 1606.4/ 1606.2/ 1605.8/ 1605.8/ 1605.8/ 1605.8 FOXN8 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5/ 1566.5 MINN8 1551.0/ 1550.9/ 1550.9/ 1550.8/ 1550.7/ 1550.7/ 1550.7 MION8 1541.4/ 1541.3/ 1541.3/ 1541.2/ 1541.1/ 1541.1/ 1541.1 LGNN8 1520.5/ 1520.1/ 1520.0/ 1519.9/ 1519.8/ 1519.8/ 1519.8 SWRN8 1507.6/ 1507.2/ 1506.8/ 1506.7/ 1506.6/ 1506.6/ 1506.6 VLVN8 1491.3/ 1490.7/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2 :Wintering River KLSN8 1504.0/ 1503.6/ 1503.2/ 1503.0/ 1503.0/ 1503.0/ 1503.0 :Souris River TOWN8 1446.1/ 1446.0/ 1445.6/ 1445.1/ 1445.0/ 1444.9/ 1444.9 BANN8 1432.0/ 1431.9/ 1431.4/ 1431.0/ 1430.9/ 1430.8/ 1430.8 :Willow Creek WLCN8 1436.7/ 1436.6/ 1436.1/ 1436.1/ 1436.1/ 1436.1/ 1436.1 :Souris River WSTN8 1410.8/ 1410.4/ 1410.1/ 1409.8/ 1409.7/ 1409.7/ 1409.7 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$