FGUS63 KMSR 241417 ESGTMO TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 917 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Fox River WYLM7 15.0 18.0 20.0 31 31 14 14 <5 <5 :North Fabius River EWNM7 11.0 17.0 20.0 43 45 22 22 8 7 :Middle Fabius River EWMM7 12.0 17.0 20.0 45 44 22 22 11 11 :South Fabius River TAYM7 10.0 14.0 19.0 37 42 18 21 5 6 :North River PALM7 13.0 16.0 22.0 26 28 9 13 <5 <5 :Middle Fork Salt River PMZM7 17.0 22.0 26.0 44 42 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt River NLDM7 19.0 25.0 27.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cuivre River TRYM7 21.0 25.0 29.0 53 52 22 19 6 7 OMNM7 24.0 27.0 30.0 34 52 17 24 <5 15 :Dardenne Creek DRCM7 18.0 20.0 23.0 28 27 24 23 <5 5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241417/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Fox River WYLM7 4.0/ 4.7/ 5.7/ 10.3/ 15.5/ 18.8/ 19.6 :North Fabius River EWNM7 4.4/ 5.3/ 7.7/ 10.1/ 15.6/ 19.5/ 20.9 :Middle Fabius River EWMM7 3.3/ 4.9/ 8.1/ 10.4/ 16.3/ 20.3/ 21.9 :South Fabius River TAYM7 3.1/ 4.6/ 5.5/ 9.0/ 12.6/ 16.6/ 19.2 :North River PALM7 4.5/ 5.1/ 6.1/ 8.1/ 13.1/ 15.9/ 17.4 :Middle Fork Salt River PMZM7 5.6/ 7.8/ 10.2/ 15.6/ 19.2/ 20.6/ 21.6 :Salt River NLDM7 6.5/ 7.2/ 8.8/ 9.3/ 10.6/ 12.3/ 13.0 :Cuivre River TRYM7 7.8/ 9.8/ 14.4/ 21.5/ 24.6/ 28.2/ 29.1 OMNM7 15.1/ 16.1/ 17.8/ 20.8/ 25.9/ 29.5/ 30.0 :Dardenne Creek DRCM7 1.8/ 3.5/ 7.3/ 10.8/ 19.2/ 22.1/ 22.9 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404241417/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Fox River WYLM7 2.1/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4 :North Fabius River EWNM7 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.9 :Middle Fabius River EWMM7 3.1/ 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.3 :South Fabius River TAYM7 1.7/ 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.3/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8 :North River PALM7 3.7/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 2.9/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 :Middle Fork Salt River PMZM7 4.3/ 4.1/ 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 :Salt River NLDM7 4.9/ 4.7/ 4.2/ 3.4/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :Cuivre River TRYM7 5.8/ 5.7/ 5.6/ 5.4/ 5.3/ 5.1/ 5.0 OMNM7 14.7/ 13.7/ 12.7/ 10.5/ 9.8/ 9.4/ 9.4 :Dardenne Creek DRCM7 1.6/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$