FGUS63 KMSR 231343 ESGTND TRIBUTARIES TO THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH IN NORTH DAKOTA LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 843 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Sheyenne River VCRN8 15.0 16.0 17.0 <5 9 <5 7 <5 5 LBNN8 15.0 17.0 19.0 <5 10 <5 7 <5 5 KNDN8 16.0 19.0 20.5 7 19 <5 9 <5 7 :Sheyenne River Diversion WFON8 18.0 20.0 21.0 <5 9 <5 8 <5 7 :Maple River ENDN8 9.5 12.0 14.0 16 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 MPLN8 18.0 21.0 23.0 27 28 11 12 <5 <5 :Sheyenne River HWDN8 84.0 86.0 91.0 14 20 11 15 <5 7 :Goose River HGRN8 10.0 13.0 16.0 <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Forest River MTON8 6.0 8.0 11.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Pembina River WLHN8 11.0 16.0 18.0 <5 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 NCEN8 18.0 19.0 20.5 <5 25 <5 22 <5 12 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231343/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Sheyenne River VCRN8 4.3/ 4.4/ 5.1/ 6.5/ 8.8/ 11.3/ 12.5 LBNN8 3.0/ 3.1/ 3.9/ 5.6/ 8.7/ 11.3/ 13.2 KNDN8 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 6.7/ 11.1/ 13.8/ 18.0 :Sheyenne River Diversion WFON8 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 12.9/ 14.1/ 17.5 :Maple River ENDN8 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 4.1/ 7.2/ 10.4/ 11.3 MPLN8 8.5/ 8.5/ 8.5/ 11.6/ 18.4/ 21.4/ 22.0 :Sheyenne River HWDN8 73.0/ 73.0/ 73.0/ 74.8/ 80.2/ 86.3/ 89.9 :Goose River HGRN8 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 3.1/ 5.0/ 6.1/ 8.9 :Forest River MTON8 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.9/ 3.2/ 4.4/ 4.9 :Pembina River WLHN8 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 3.5/ 4.9/ 6.0/ 7.2 NCEN8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.6/ 8.4/ 11.8/ 13.8 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 0429 Z DH12 /DC2404231343/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH .B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Sheyenne River VCRN8 3.9/ 3.7/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5 LBNN8 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3 KNDN8 2.9/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.2 :Sheyenne River Diversion WFON8 6.6/ 6.3/ 6.1/ 6.0/ 5.9/ 5.7/ 5.6 :Maple River ENDN8 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 MPLN8 8.3/ 8.2/ 8.1/ 8.1/ 8.0/ 8.0/ 8.0 :Sheyenne River HWDN8 68.4/ 68.2/ 67.7/ 67.4/ 67.1/ 66.7/ 66.6 :Goose River HGRN8 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7 :Forest River MTON8 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1 :Pembina River WLHN8 2.2/ 2.0/ 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1 NCEN8 3.2/ 2.6/ 1.8/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$