FGUS63 KMSR 281756 ESGWI LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1156 AM CST WED DEC 28 2011 WISCONSIN..TREMPELEAU..BLACK..LA CROSSE RIVER BASINS CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL VALID 12/26/2011 - 3/25/2012 DEP FROM ---------FLOOD STAGES--------- NORMAL MINOR MODERATE MAJOR OF REACHING LOCATION STG PCT STG PCT STG PCT FLOOD STAGE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- TREMPEALEAU RIVER AT DODGE (DDGW3) 9 6% 11 --- 12 --- 8% LESS BLACK RIVER AT NEILLSVILLE (NEIW3) 18 --- 20 --- 22 --- N/A BLACK RIVER AT BLACK RIVER FALLS - HWY 54 (BRFW3) 47 6% 51 1% 55 --- NEAR NORMAL BLACK RIVER AT GALESVILLE 5SE (GALW3) 12 8% 13 4% 15 --- NEAR NORMAL WISCONSIN RIVER AT MERRILL (RRLW3) 11 --- 13.5 --- 15 --- N/A WISCONSIN RIVER AT ROTHSCHILD (ROTW3) 25 --- 27 --- 28 --- N/A WISCONSIN RIVER AT WISCONSIN RAPIDS-GRAND AVE BRDG (WIRW3) 12 --- 13.5 --- 14.5 --- N/A YELLOW RIVER AT BABCOCK 1WNW (BBCW3) 12 18% 15.9 --- 16.6 --- NEAR NORMAL WISCONSIN RIVER AT PORTAGE (PORW3) 17 4% 18 4% 19 3% NEAR NORMAL SOUTH BRANCH BARABOO RIVER AT HILLSBORO WWTP (HILW3) 13 --- 14 --- 16 --- N/A BARABOO RIVER AT ROCK SPRINGS (RSPW3) 18.5 13% 21 --- 23 --- NEAR NORMAL BARABOO RIVER AT BARABOO - SHAW ST (BBOW3) 9 --- 10.5 --- 12.5 --- N/A BARABOO RIVER AT BARABOO WWTP (BABW3) 16 14% 22 --- 23.1 --- NEAR NORMAL WISCONSIN RIVER AT MUSCODA 1NE - WWTP (MUSW3) 9 3% 10 --- 11 --- NEAR NORMAL KICKAPOO RIVER AT LA FARGE (LAFW3) 12 --- 13 --- 14 --- N/A KICKAPOO RIVER AT VIOLA (VIOW3) 14 --- 17 --- 20 --- N/A KICKAPOO RIVER AT READSTOWN (REAW3) 11 1% 14 --- 17 --- NEAR NORMAL KICKAPOO RIVER AT SOLDIERS GROVE (SOGW3) 13 --- 16 --- 19 --- N/A KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS WWTP (GMIW3) 13 9% 15 --- 17 --- NEAR NORMAL KICKAPOO RIVER AT STEUBEN 3NE (STEW3) 12 4% 13 --- 15 --- NEAR NORMAL STG = STAGE (FEET) PCT = PERCENT --- = DISTRIBUTION COMPLETELY BELOW THIS STAGE DEP = DEPARTURE .B MSR 1220 Z DH12 /DC1112201100/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZX9/HGVFZX8/HGVFZX7 .B1 /HGVFZX6/HGVFZX5/HGVFZX4/HGVFZX3/HGVFZX2/HGVFZX1 : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID 12/26/2011 - 3/25/2012 : : 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :TREMPEALEAU RIVER DDGW3 5.3/ 6.2/ 6.5/ 6.8/ 7.1/ 7.6/ 7.9/ 8.2/ 8.7 :BLACK RIVER NEIW3 5.1/ 5.7/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.3/ 7.7/ 8.7/ 9.5/ 11.2 BRFW3 38.5/ 39.4/ 39.8/ 40.5/ 41.0/ 42.0/ 43.4/ 44.5/ 46.4 GALW3 5.8/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.5/ 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.5/ 10.4/ 11.9 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 5.2/ 5.4/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.9/ 7.5/ 8.5 ROTW3 14.3/ 15.1/ 15.7/ 16.2/ 16.4/ 16.7/ 17.7/ 18.9/ 21.3 WIRW3 3.6/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.5/ 7.2 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 4.9/ 6.1/ 6.4/ 6.8/ 7.3/ 8.5/ 10.0/ 11.9/ 13.3 :WISCONSIN RIVER PORW3 11.7/ 12.1/ 12.4/ 12.6/ 12.7/ 12.8/ 13.0/ 13.2/ 15.7 :S BR BARABOO RIVER HILW3 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.7/ 7.2/ 7.9/ 9.8/ 11.6 :BARABOO RIVER RSPW3 11.7/ 12.7/ 13.2/ 14.1/ 14.8/ 15.4/ 15.7/ 17.1/ 19.3 BBOW3 3.5/ 4.0/ 4.4/ 4.8/ 5.1/ 5.3/ 5.5/ 5.7/ 6.7 BABW3 9.9/ 10.6/ 11.1/ 12.1/ 12.9/ 13.6/ 14.0/ 14.6/ 16.8 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSW3 2.3/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.1/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 5.8 :KICKAPOO RIVER LAFW3 3.8/ 4.1/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.3/ 5.5/ 5.8/ 6.4/ 6.9 VIOW3 9.4/ 9.8/ 10.5/ 10.8/ 11.1/ 11.4/ 11.6/ 12.5/ 13.1 REAW3 5.1/ 5.8/ 6.6/ 7.0/ 7.4/ 7.7/ 8.4/ 9.1/ 10.5 SOGW3 7.3/ 8.2/ 9.0/ 9.5/ 9.9/ 10.2/ 10.8/ 11.4/ 12.2 GMIW3 7.9/ 8.7/ 9.7/ 10.1/ 10.6/ 11.1/ 11.6/ 12.3/ 13.1 STEW3 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.2/ 9.9/ 10.1/ 10.7/ 11.0/ 11.5/ 11.8 .END : : .B MSR 1220 Z DH12 /DC1112201100/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZN1/HGVFZN2/HGVFZN3 .B1 /HGVFZN4/HGVFZN5/HGVFZN6/HGVFZN7/HGVFZN8/HGVFZN9 : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID 12/26/2011 - 3/25/2012 : : 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :TREMPEALEAU RIVER DDGW3 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.2 :BLACK RIVER NEIW3 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8 BRFW3 35.6/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.7/ 35.8 GALW3 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.6 :WISCONSIN RIVER RRLW3 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1 ROTW3 12.3/ 12.5/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6/ 12.6 WIRW3 1.7/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 2.1/ 2.2/ 2.3 :YELLOW RIVER BBCW3 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9 :WISCONSIN RIVER PORW3 8.9/ 9.1/ 9.2/ 9.3/ 9.5/ 9.6/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.9 :S BR BARABOO RIVER HILW3 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 4.8 :BARABOO RIVER RSPW3 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.5/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.6/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.8 BBOW3 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.7 BABW3 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 6.5/ 6.5/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 6.7/ 6.8 :WISCONSIN RIVER MUSW3 0.3/ 0.7/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.9/ 0.9/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.1 :KICKAPOO RIVER LAFW3 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6 VIOW3 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.1 REAW3 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.7 SOGW3 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.4 GMIW3 6.1/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.4 STEW3 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.3/ 6.4 :LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF :THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. .END $$