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Flood Potential Outlook  
National Weather Service  
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA  
1215 PM CDT Wednesday March 13 2024
  
Central Region - Spring Flood Potential Outlook  
              National Weather Service  
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA  
          valid for Thursday March 14 2024

                      
Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and 
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 
 
...For Central Region...WFOS SGF PAH AND LSX ONLY...

                      
...Introduction...
  
  
During the past two weeks, less than one inch of rain has fallen across the Upper Mississippi,
while the Missouri and Ohio Valleys have received between one to three inches.  Unseasonably warm
temperatures persist, and the basin is snow free.

Recent rains have caused streamflows across the Ohio Valley to return to near seasonal levels.
However, streamflows across the Upper and Mid Mississippi and Missouri remain below normal.


...Mississippi River Below Chester IL and Ohio River Below Smithland Dam IL (WFO PAH)...

Recent rains across the Ohio Valley have resulted in some minor rises along the Mississippi 
River.  Long range models indicate that water levels may remain near current levels through 
the middle of April.  However, no flooding is forecast at this time.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal streamflows:

                                             2/14  2/28  3/13  
Mississippi River              Thebes IL     71%   30%   17%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     50%   22%   18%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflow conditions...no snow pack....
and normal spring rainfall patterns...a BELOW AVERAGE to AVERAGE flood potential 
is expected along the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of future 
crests will depend on the frequency...intensity...and extent of spring rains.


...St. Francis Basin of South Missouri (WFO PAH)...
 
The St. Francis basin has received less than an inch of rain over the last two weeks.
Streamflows remain below average basin wide. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median
are given below. 

                                            2/14  2/28  3/13 
St. Francis River           Patterson MO    26%   12%   18%  

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall patterns...a BELOW
AVERAGE to AVERAGE flood potential is expected over the St. Francis basin.  Percent of available
flood control storage for the St. Francis reservoirs are given below.

                                              2/14  2/28  3/13
                      Wappapello Res. MO      98%   100%  100%                


...Black/White Basins of South Missouri (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH)...
 
Rainfall over the Black and White basins has varied over the last two weeks.  Small portions
of each bain received 2-2.5 inches of rain, which helped streamsflow increase to near average.
However, the majority of both basins received less than one inch, and streamsflows in these 
areas remain below average.  Observed daily streamflow as a percent of median are given below. 

                                             2/14  2/28  3/13
Black River                 Annapolis MO     32%   20%   19%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     50%   11%   14%
James River                    Galena MO     72%   27%   32%

Based on existing soil moisture...streamflows...and normal spring rainfall patterns...a BELOW
AVERAGE to AVERAGE flood potential is expected over the Black and White basins. Percent of 
available flood control storage for the Black/White reservoirs are given below.
 
                                             2/14  2/28  3/13    
      Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR     99%   95%   91%

   
...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates chances of
below normal temperatures and below to near normal precipitation over the Missouri,
Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures and equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation to leaning above normal precipitation for the Missouri,
Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys. 

The 90 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures and equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation to leaning above normal precipitation for the Missouri,
Mississippi, and Ohio Valleys.

This is the final spring flood outlook for 2024.

.END

$$