FGUS64 KTUA 111539 ESGPUB LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 1038 AM CDT THU APR 11 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid 04/11/2024 - 07/10/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Arkansas River LEDC2 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 SALC2 8.0 9.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 WSVC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PDLC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 CNCC2 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 PRTC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PDAC2 8.0 9.0 11.0 25 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 ADLC2 7.0 10.0 12.0 65 24 9 <5 6 <5 NPTC2 16.5 17.5 18.5 27 <5 12 <5 8 <5 FWLC2 13.5 14.0 15.0 9 8 8 6 6 <5 ARCC2 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LXHC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 58 41 18 7 6 <5 LMAC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Fountain Creek FNEC2 11.5 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FHAC2 12.0 14.0 16.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PNNC2 12.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 FCHC2 10.0 12.0 13.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :St. Charles River SCVC2 12.0 15.0 18.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Purgatoire River PGMC2 7.0 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PGRC2 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 PTRC2 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LAPC2 9.0 12.0 15.0 20 11 8 5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B TUA 0411 Z DH12 /DC202404111538/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT .B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations : Valid 04/11/2024 - 07/10/2024 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Arkansas River LEDC2 6.6/ 6.7/ 7.1/ 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.2/ 8.4 SALC2 3.9/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.8/ 5.0/ 5.2 WSVC2 5.3/ 5.3/ 5.7/ 6.0/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 6.8 PDLC2 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.0/ 5.5/ 5.8/ 6.2 CNCC2 7.3/ 7.4/ 7.7/ 7.9/ 8.3/ 8.7/ 9.1 PRTC2 4.2/ 4.4/ 4.7/ 5.1/ 5.5/ 7.1/ 9.7 PDAC2 4.9/ 5.2/ 5.7/ 6.9/ 8.0/ 8.1/ 8.2 ADLC2 5.1/ 5.3/ 6.5/ 7.8/ 8.4/ 9.8/ 12.7 NPTC2 14.4/ 14.6/ 15.1/ 16.0/ 16.6/ 17.7/ 20.8 FWLC2 11.5/ 11.6/ 11.8/ 12.3/ 12.6/ 13.1/ 15.6 ARCC2 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.8/ 4.6/ 5.1/ 6.0/ 8.7 LXHC2 9.1/ 9.4/ 10.2/ 11.4/ 12.5/ 13.6/ 15.7 LMAC2 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.6/ 8.6/ 9.8 :Fountain Creek FNEC2 6.1/ 6.3/ 6.5/ 6.9/ 7.9/ 9.0/ 9.5 FHAC2 8.1/ 8.2/ 8.5/ 8.8/ 9.5/ 11.5/ 13.0 PNNC2 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 6.2/ 8.7/ 9.6 FCHC2 2.3/ 2.4/ 2.6/ 2.9/ 3.5/ 5.6/ 6.7 :St. Charles River SCVC2 3.5/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 5.8/ 7.5/ 10.7/ 14.4 :Purgatoire River PGMC2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 3.7/ 4.0 PGRC2 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.6/ 6.6/ 7.4/ 8.0/ 8.9 PTRC2 1.1/ 1.2/ 2.1/ 2.7/ 3.3/ 4.1/ 6.1 LAPC2 3.2/ 3.5/ 4.4/ 5.5/ 8.3/ 10.8/ 14.7 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly :throughout the year. .END $$