FGUS65 KSTR 031818 ESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH APRIL 3, 2019 ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2019: Precipitation: Seasonal October-March precipitation was 135 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 110 percent of average for the Gila Basin and 130 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was 100 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 125 percent in the Gila River Basin, and 110 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin. Streamflow: March Streamflow was around 310 percent of median in the Salt-Verde, 270 percent in the Gila, and generally 205 percent in the Little Colorado. April 1st Snow: Basin snowpack conditions were near 120 percent of median in the Salt-Verde River Basin, the Little Colorado River Basin was around 165 percent and the upper Gila basin was 40 percent of median. Soil Moisture: Modeled soil moisture states have increased dramatically over the past couple of months. Climate Conditions: Weak El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation in Arizona. Forecast Summary: The April-May forecast volumes were between 6 to 120 percent of median in the Little Colorado Basin, 56 to 156 percent of median in the Salt-Verde Basin. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 37 and 119 percent. SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tracy.cox/wsup/wy19/lc/lcapr.drv Developed: Apr 1 2019 LOWER Colorado Period 50% %MED 10% 30% 70% 90% MED ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --- Little Colorado River Lyman Lk, abv, St. John Apr-Jun 4.2 120 7.0 5.3 4.1 4.1 3.5 Zuni River Black Rock Res, abv Apr-May 0.03 30 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.10 Chevelon Ck Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy Apr-May 0.11 6 1.28 0.17 0.11 0.10 1.70 Gila River Gila, nr Apr-May 19.7 119 29 24 19.7 19.6 16.5 Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl Apr-May 23 110 35 28 23 22 21 San Francisco River Glenwood, nr Apr-May 2.7 37 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 7.3 Clifton Apr-May 8.6 50 16.4 12.7 8.6 8.5 17.3 Gila River Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa Apr-May 35 90 50 42 34 34 39 San Carlos Res, Coolidg Apr-May 18.5 101 31 27 18.0 17.4 18.4 Salt River Roosevelt, nr Apr-May 170 134 220 197 162 155 127 Tonto Ck Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, Apr-May 9.2 156 12.1 10.3 9.2 9.1 5.9 Verde River Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh Apr-May 20 56 41 30 19.8 19.7 36 50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet. %MED Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 median. 10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. 30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded. 90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded. 70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded. MED median volume for the 1981-2010 period. All forecast volumes reflect natural flow. Actual observed flow may be affected by upstream water management. **************************************************************************** PRECIPITATION SUMMARY: MARCH'19 SEASONAL BASIN % Average % Average Upper Gila 125 110 Salt-Verde 100 135 Little Colorado 110 130 *************************************************************************** SNOWPACK SUMMARY: APRIL 1 2019 BASIN % Average Upper Gila 40 San Francisco 5 Salt-Verde 120 Little Colorado 165 *************************************************************************** OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY: MARCH'19 BASIN % Median Gila 270 Salt-Verde 310 Little Colorado 205 ************************************************************************** For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php CBRFC NNNN $$