FGUS71 KAKQ 161828
ESFAKQ
MDC019-039-045-047-VAC001-007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-
075-081-085-087-093-095-097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-
133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-
670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830-231830-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
228 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...River Flood Potential is Average...

INTRODUCTION:
Each winter and early spring, the National Weather Service office
in Wakefield, VA issues a series of flood potential outlooks. 
These outlooks estimate the potential for river flooding (not 
flash flooding) across the Wakefield Forecast Office`s Hydrologic 
Service Area (HSA). The HSA includes Central and Eastern Virginia,
the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore, and portions of Northeast North
Carolina. The outlook is based on the current assessment of 
hydrometeorological factors which contribute to river flooding. 
These factors include, but are not limited to recent 
precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and snow water 
equivalent, streamflows, river ice and expected future weather 
conditions.

In this part of the Mid-Atlantic Region, heavy rainfall is the 
primary factor that leads to river flooding. Heavy rainfall can 
rapidly cause river flooding at any time of the year, even when 
overall river flood potential is considered low or below average.

FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK: 
The river flood potential during the next two weeks (through March
30, 2023) is average for NWS Wakefield's Hydrologic Service Area.
Factors which contribute to this assessment of river flood 
potential are discussed in some detail below. 

CURRENT FLOODING: 
There is no flooding occurring or forecast at this time. 

RECENT PRECIPITATION: 
30-day precipitation ending March 15th ranged from one to three 
inches across NWS Wakefield's HSA.  These totals were one to two 
inches below normal.  

SNOW CONDITIONS: 
There is no snow on the ground as of March 16th.

RIVER ICE: 
There is no ice on area rivers as of March 16th.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS: 
The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)  
indicates current local streamflow conditions are in the below 
normal to much-below-normal range. 

SOIL MOISTURE: 
Soil moisture indicators including the Palmer Drought Severity
Index, which is used to infer deep soil moisture and long term
drought, shows that as of March 11, 2023, almost all of the  
Wakefield HSA is depicted as being near normal. The lone exception
is over the Northern Neck of Virginia where moderate drought 
conditions were depicted. 

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Soil Moisture Monitor, which 
looks more at top soil moisture, is showing dry conditions 
across most of NWS Wakefield's HSA, as of March 15, 2023. The 
analysis shows moisture deficits of 20 to 60mm of moisture in the
topsoil.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS: 
Ground water wells across eastern Virginia are showing several with
below normal to much-below-normal water levels for the date. This
is especially true for the Virginia Northern Neck and Eastern 
Shore. Elsewhere across east-central and southeast Virginia, 
ground water levels are in the normal range.

RESERVOIRS:
Major water supply reservoirs, including John H. Kerr and Lake
Anna, are at or near full capacity and guide curves where applicable. 

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: 
Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) over the next 7 days (through 7 AM
Thursday, March 23rd) indicate precipitation amounts between one-
quarter of an inch and once inch across NWS Wakefield's HSA. This 
precipitation should not be heavy enough to cause river flooding. 

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook for
March 24th to March 30th is indicating near-normal temperatures 
and above normal precipitation chances.

ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS: 
Ensemble river guidance, valid through March 30th, indicates
that all rivers will remain below flood stage. 

SUMMARY: 
The river flood potential is average through the outlook 
period, based on current conditions and forecasts. 

NEXT ISSUANCE: 
This will be the last scheduled issuance of the winter/spring
flood outlook for 2023 unless conditions warrant an update. The
next issuance is expected to be in January 2024.

For additional weather or hydrologic information, please visit our 
website at weather.gov/wakefield.

$$