FGUS71 KPBZ 201610 ESFPBZ WVC069-271615- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1210 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 ...Flood Potential across the Ohio Valley for the next two weeks is normal for the western basin and slightly below normal in the eastern basin... ...Flood Potential for the next 90-days is near normal to slightly below for the Ohio Valley... The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS... Over the last 14 days, rainfall across the Ohio Valley ranged from 0.50-4.00 inches (25 to 50 percent of normal). For more information please visit: https://water.weather.gov/precip SOIL MOISTURE... Current soil moisture conditions are generally below normal across the region. State rankings: Ohio - Below normal Western Pennsylvania - Near normal For more information please visit: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml USGS STREAMFLOWS... Current streamflows are generally below normal across the Ohio Valley with some areas near normal. State rankings: Ohio - Normal with pockets of below normal Western Pennsylvania - Normal For more information please visit: https://watermonitor.gov RESERVOIR CONDITIONS... Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pool levels across the Ohio Valley. OHIO RIVER FLOWS... Current flows along the Ohio River are near normal. Values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above normal and below 100% are below normal. Pittsburgh - 90% Huntington - 85% Cincinnati - 90% Louisville - 85% Evansville - 90% Smithland - 100% SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK... There is currently no snow pack across the Ohio Valley For more information please visit: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa ICE COVER... No ice is present across the Ohio Valley. 2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... The two-week flood outlook is near normal in the western basin and slightly below normal in the eastern basin. Rainfall potential is slightly above normal in the western basin and normal in the east. A weather system will bring light precipitation to the Ohio Valley the end of the work week. A more potent system will bring rainfall the middle of next week. The week 2 precipitation outlook is above normal. OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS... The Ohio River flow forecasts are expected to be below normal over the next 14 days. Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above normal and values below 100% being below normal. Pittsburgh - 80% Huntington - 80% Cincinnati - 85% Louisville - 80% Evansville - 80% Smithland - 85% For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc 90 DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK The flood outlook for the next 90 days acorss the Ohio Valley continues to favor normal to slightly below normal flood risk. STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK... Ohio - Minor flooding possible Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php ADDITIONAL INFORMATION... Flood risk is defined as follows: Below normal - flooding will be limited Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate or major possible Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions. The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous water watch. This can be found at https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro Factors considered in assessing flood potential include antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, ice conditions and future precipitation. $$