FGUS71 KPHI 281643 ESFPHI DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015- 019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045- 077-089-091-095-101-290445- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1243 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 7 This is the seventh in a series of annual Flood Potential Statements that provides an assessment of how ready or primed our forecast area is for river flooding. This final outlook for Spring 2024 covers the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins. It will provide information on flood threat contributors such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation and others. This assessment is valid between March 28 and April 11, 2024. As we saw last week, in the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low. This outlook does not discuss flash flooding, nor does it discuss any extent or severity of flooding. In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the overall river flood potential is above normal. Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office. CURRENT FLOODING - None, although many streams and rivers remain high from recent rain. RECENT PRECIPITATION - Much above normal. Between 5.5 and 8.0 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days across the entire HSA. Precipitation departure maps can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Water Supply tab). SNOW COVER - There is no snow on the ground across our forecast area. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab). RIVER ICE - There is no river ice across our forecast area. STREAMFLOW - Above normal to much above normal. Real time water data is available from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) by visiting https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov. SOIL MOISTURE - Above normal to much above normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following websites... www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov. GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground water levels across the region vary and are running below normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs in the area are mainly running normal. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A slow moving cold front will approach our region from the west as a wave of low pressure tracks northeastward off the coast today, resulting in a period of unsettled weather. Weak high pressure will begin to build in on Friday. A weak clipper system may move through on Saturday, otherwise fairly quiet and seasonable conditions will prevail over the weekend. Another period of rainy weather is expected early next week as low pressure tracks toward our region from the Ohio Valley. Keep in mind the region remains primed for flooding with high levels of ground moisture and high streamflows in place. Under the current environment, a precipitation event that results in about 2.00 inches of rainfall would likely cause river flooding across portions of northern and central New Jersey, northern Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania. For week two, the 8 to 14 day outlook calls for near normal temperatures and precipitation. SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration, the overall river flood potential is above normal across the forecast area. Since the contributions of snow and ice are highly unlikely as we move into April, this will be the last Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for the season. But keep in mind, with recent precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow all running high, the region remains primed for flooding if a heavy rain event occurs. For complete weather information, visit our website at: www.weather.gov/phi && Overall Flood Potential...Above normal Current Flooding...None Recent Precipitation...Much above normal Snow cover...Normal River Ice...Normal Streamflow...Above normal to much above normal Soil Moisture...Above normal to much above normal Ground Water...Below normal to above normal Reservoir Conditions...Normal $$ Kruzdlo