FGUS72 KCAE 071822 ESFCAE GAC033-073-181-189-245-SCC003-009-011-017-025-027-037-039-055-057- 061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-141830- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service Columbia SC 222 PM EDT Tue May 7 2019 ...Final Spring Flood Potential Outlook For The Season... ...Normal to Above Normal Flows Continue on the Rivers across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area... This Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and tributaries of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central Georgia and Central South Carolina including the following: Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and upstream from Burtons Ferry... The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg County line in South Carolina... The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina... The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South Carolina... The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South Carolina... ...Summary of Recent Weather Events... Over the last 14 days ending May 2 2019...the hydrologic area has received rainfall amounts one quarter of an inch up to around one inch. The heaviest rain fell across portions of the Central Savannah River Area and southwest Midlands. ...Soil Moisture-Drought Conditions... Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands and CSRA. Rainfall was below normal for February and March, but rebounded a little in April with most stations receiving at least normal precipitation amounts. Temperatures have also been 1 to 2 degrees above normal for the period. The area of D0, Abnormally Dry, has spread westward covering much of the area along and south of I-20. The area of D1, Moderate Drought, continues to increase along and east of the I-95 corridor to the coast. This is especially present across the Lowcountry. Go to www.drought.gov for more details. ...River and Stream Flow... Looking at the 14-day stream flow average compared to historical streamflows for May 2 2019 show most of the stream basins across the Midlands and CSRA continue to have normal to above normal flows. At this time there is no flooding occurring. Broad River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows Catawba/Wateree River Basin: Near Normal flows Saluda River Basin: Near Normal flows Santee River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows Edisto River Basin: Near Normal flows Savannah River Basin: Above Normal to Near Normal flows ...Reservoir Levels... Reservoir pool elevations have fluctuated very little over the past 2 weeks due to operators trying to keep pool heights near their rule curve for late May. Most reservoir operators have already approached their expected pool heights for spring and summer levels. A Note, reservoir pool elevations are dependent on project operations. Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)... Apr 18 2019 327.79 Feet May 02 2019 328.28 Feet Difference Plus 0.49 Feet Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)... Apr 18 2019 438.99 Feet May 02 2019 439.01 Feet Difference Plus 0.02 Feet Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)... Apr 18 2919 358.03 Feet May 02 2019 358.01 Feet Difference Minus 0.02 Feet Lake Marion (FP 76.80 Feet)... Apr 18 2019 75.71 Feet May 02 2019 75.65 Feet Difference Minus 0.06 Feet Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)... Apr 18 2019 98.28 Feet May 02 2019 97.50 Feet Difference Minus 0.78 Feet Data for this segment was gathered from the United States Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and Gas...Greenwood County and Santee Cooper. ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks... Near Term...A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area over the weekend. A relatively dry pattern will then persist behind the front into the early and middle portion of next week. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 2 inches are possible. Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the next 7 days at weather.gov/cae. The 8- to 14 day outlook for the period May 14th through May 20th calls for a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal temperatures along with 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal precipitation. The 30-day outlook for May 2019 indicates a 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures along with equal chance of above, below or normal precipitation. The 3-month outlook for May, June and July calls for a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures along with a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation. El Nino conditions continue as sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a 65 percent chance, likely, that the El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019. There is a 50 to 55 percent chance that the weak El Nino will continue into the fall. Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks. ...Summary/Outlook... Soils have remained moist and stream flows at least normal or higher across the area due to the abundant rain that fell in the fall and winter. Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid January with the number of river flood events increasing through late winter into early spring. The peak occurs in early to mid March then begins to end in late April for the region. The medium-range to long-range precipitation guidance indicates that precipitation may be near to above normal through the remainder of spring and summer with temperatures at or above normal for the same period. This will be the last Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for the season. This produce will resume in the Winter and Spring of 2020. ...Questions and Comments... If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please contact... The National Weather Service 2909 Aviation Way West Columbia SC 29170 Phone: 803-822-8135 Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov Senior Service Hydrologist: Leonard.Vaughan@noaa.gov $$