FGUS72 KILM 211325
ESFILM
NCC017-019-047-129-141-155-SCC031-033-041-043-051-067-069-089-
231330-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
925 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
below normal. As a result, there is an area of abnormally dry 
conditions nearer the coast in the latest depiction from the U.S.
Drought Monitor.
 
The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area 
observation sites through Wednesday March 20th for various time 
scales. 

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.35      4.11     -0.76        82%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.83      7.88     -2.05        74%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.86     11.45     -3.59        69%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     22.69     23.16     -0.47        98%
                ONE YEAR      97.65     57.61     40.04       170%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS    109.29     68.45     40.84       160%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.47      3.31      0.16       105%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.64      6.40     -0.76        88%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      8.17      8.91     -0.74        92%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     21.96     17.77      4.19       124%
                ONE YEAR      60.28     43.52     16.76       139%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     65.36     51.98     13.38       126%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.44      3.78     -1.34        65%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.12      7.53     -3.41        55%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      6.00     10.71     -4.71        56%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     23.44     21.69      1.75       108%
                ONE YEAR      66.00     52.01     13.99       127%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     73.66     62.17     11.49       118%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.91      3.27     -0.36        89%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.58      6.34     -0.76        88%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.92      9.46     -1.54        84%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     24.18     18.13      6.05       133%
                ONE YEAR      59.00     42.91     16.09       137%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     65.00     51.85     13.15       125%


Streamflow values across the area are at near normal levels for 
this time of year. Ground water levels are also in the normal
range. Upstream reservoir levels are near to above normal for the
time of year as are area soil moisture conditions. 

During the next seven days, there are small chances for showers
today and again early next week but the weekend is expected to be
dry. The result will be near to below normal rainfall over the 
area during the week. The outlook from the Climate Prediction 
Center for the rest of March shows above normal rainfall while the 
outlook for March through May indicates near normal rainfall. 

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for an
above normal risk of flooding through April. 

If needed, the next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
April 4th.

$$

RAN