FGUS72 KRAH 050224 ESFRAH ...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING OVER CENTRAL NC FOR THE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL... Precipitation Summary Rainfall over the past month has been above normal for much of central NC, including the Triangle and Triad regions. However, some locations such as the Fayetteville area were slightly below normal for the month of February. Rain was reported on at least 12 days while rainfall amounts of half an inch or more were reported on 5 or fewer days. The majority of the month's rainfall occurred between February 16th and the 23rd. See www.water.weather.gov for detailed rainfall analysis. Precipitation and departure from normal: Precipitation (inches) and departure from normal for the water year beginning 1 October 2017 Month RDU GSO Fayetteville ------------------------------------------------------------------ October 4.58/ 1.33 7.22/ 4.09 2.22/-0.99 November 7.10/ 3.98 6.46/ 3.35 5.31/ 2.54 December 6.23/ 3.16 6.99/ 4.01 6.00/ 3.35 January 3.43/-0.07 4.01/ 0.95 2.77/-0.53 February 4.26/ 1.03 5.89/ 2.93 2.05/-0.71 Total precip 25.60/ 9.43 30.57/15.33 18.15/ 3.66 Percent normal 137 150 120 --------------------------------------------------------------- Begin Actual Normal Departure Percent date Pcpn Pcpn from norm of norm Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) LAST 7 DAYS 02/23/2019 2.01 0.86 1.15 234% LAST 14 DAYS 02/16/2019 4.59 1.70 2.89 270% LAST 30 DAYS 01/31/2019 4.91 3.48 1.43 141% LAST 90 DAYS 12/02/2018 14.25 9.83 4.42 145% LAST 180 DAYS 09/03/2018 34.03 20.34 13.69 167% LAST 365 DAYS 03/02/2018 62.42 43.34 19.08 144% PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO) LAST 7 DAYS 02/23/2019 2.49 0.80 1.69 311% LAST 14 DAYS 02/16/2019 6.00 1.58 4.42 380% LAST 30 DAYS 01/31/2019 6.68 3.18 3.50 210% LAST 90 DAYS 12/02/2018 17.49 9.02 8.47 194% LAST 180 DAYS 09/03/2018 40.03 19.25 20.78 208% LAST 365 DAYS 03/02/2018 68.14 42.20 25.94 161% FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY) LAST 7 DAYS 02/23/2019 0.67 0.68 -0.01 99% LAST 14 DAYS 02/16/2019 1.95 1.48 0.47 132% LAST 30 DAYS 01/31/2019 2.53 2.99 -0.46 85% LAST 90 DAYS 12/02/2018 10.13 8.70 1.43 116% LAST 180 DAYS 09/03/2018 34.37 18.90 15.47 182% LAST 365 DAYS 03/02/2018 58.48 44.46 14.02 132% Streamflows and lake levels Streamflows on unregulated streams and rivers across central NC are are normal to much-above-normal, with all gages reporting flows above the 25th percentile. See https://waterwatch.usgs.gov for additional details. The major water supply and flood control reservoirs in central NC are Falls Lake and B. Everett Jordan Lake, both operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Due to rainfall over the past two weeks both Falls and Jordan are 10-15 feet above their target elevations. Both lakes are expected to release water to get levels back to near guide curve over the course of the next couple weeks. However, any significant rainfall events would greatly slow the decreases in lake levels. See www.epec.saw.usace.army.mil for additional details. Short term forecast Despite below normal temperatures expected for the next few days, temperatures are expected to be above normal based on the outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the next month as well, with two frontal systems expected to impact the region in the next two weeks. Either or both of these systems have a chance of producing significant precipitation. Due to the saturated ground and recent/ongoing main- stem river flooding, any rainfall event of 1-2 inches would lead to additional river flooding across the area. Longer term precipitation outlook With respect to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, we are currently in a weak El Nino. which is expected to continue through the Spring. For NC, this is the 'cool' ENSO phase, which typically produces increased chances of cooler-than-normal temperatures and higher-than-normal precipitation. Given the persistent wetness and favorable outlook for precipitation, the longer range chance of river flooding is considered above normal. Additional details and discussion may be found at the Climate Prediction Center website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov In summary, current hydrologic conditions are significantly wetter than normal across central NC. While there no hints of any system in the next week which would be capable of producing significant rain, there are one or two in the coming weeks which support an above normal chance for flooding through the end of March. Similarly, climatological signals pointing towards the potential for wet periods in the longer range outlook, support the chance of flooding through the late winter and early spring as also normal to above normal. The next scheduled Winter/Spring flood outlook will be issued on April 5th. For additional hydrologic or weather information, visit our website at www.weather.gov/raleigh. KCP