FGUS72 KTBW 241355
ESFTBW
FLC015-017-027-049-053-055-057-071-075-081-101-103-105-115-119-
250200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
955 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

...Summer Flood Outlook for West Central and Southwest Florida...

The potential for flooding during the summer rainy season of 2023
is near normal across all of west central and southwest Florida. 
Rainfall so far this year is running considerably below normal 
which has created drought conditions ranging from moderate over 
the interior...severe over portions of southwest Florida...and 
extreme along the remaining coastal counties. As the rainy season 
kicks in over the next few weeks, drought conditions will ease and
no drought conditions will likely be depicted by late June. 
Streamflows have begun to recover due to some recent rains and are
generally in the climatologically normal to above normal range, 
mainly over the interior.

The Probabilistic Precipitation Outlook from the Climate 
Prediction Center for the months of June through August is leaning
toward above normal precipitation across the forecast area. This 
will aid in overcoming the drought conditions currently being 
experienced. The most likely timeframe for any flooding to occur 
would be the middle to latter portion of the rainy season, 
generally mid July through early September. However, any localized
heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches due to thunderstorms over urban 
areas on any given day can cause localized flooding of streets and
low lying areas. The main driver of more significant flooding to 
develop would be widespread heavy rain associated with any type of
tropical system.

$$

Oglesby