FGUS73 KARX 232015 ESFARX IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169- WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-302359- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service La Crosse WI 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for Minor, Moderate and Major Flooding... Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Mississippi River Lake City 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wabasha 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 17 45 <5 13 <5 <5 Alma Dam 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 MN City Dam 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : 7 19 <5 11 <5 <5 Winona Dam 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : 8 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winona 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 11 30 5 17 <5 <5 Trempealeau 647.0 649.0 651.0 : 8 24 <5 13 <5 <5 La Crescent 641.0 643.0 645.0 : 7 22 <5 10 <5 <5 La Crosse 12.0 13.0 15.5 : 10 32 6 20 <5 <5 Genoa 631.0 634.0 636.0 : 12 37 <5 11 <5 <5 Lansing 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lynxville 625.0 628.0 631.0 : 6 20 <5 6 <5 <5 McGregor 16.0 19.0 22.0 : 14 42 6 19 <5 8 Guttenberg 15.0 18.0 21.0 : 10 35 <5 12 <5 <5 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 9 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Root River Houston 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 12.0 16.0 18.0 : 8 9 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Lansing 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Austin 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Charles City 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 12 18 8 11 6 6 :Turtle Creek Austin 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 8 8 <5 5 <5 <5 :Turkey River Spillville 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 16 21 13 14 11 12 Elkader 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 28 30 10 15 <5 6 Garber 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 15 24 11 12 9 10 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Decorah 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dorchester 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 16 18 10 8 6 6 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Dodge 10.5 11.0 12.0 : 14 17 7 11 <5 <5 :Black River Neillsville 18.0 20.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Black River Falls 47.0 51.0 55.0 : 28 28 11 13 <5 <5 Galesville 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 24 26 11 15 <5 <5 :Kickapoo River La Farge 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 6 8 6 5 <5 <5 Viola 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 8 12 6 8 5 <5 Readstown 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 20 28 9 9 <5 <5 Soldiers Grove 13.0 16.0 19.0 : 17 24 8 7 <5 <5 Gays Mills 13.0 15.0 17.0 : 28 35 11 14 <5 5 Steuben 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 14 22 11 13 <5 5 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Yellow River Necedah 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 27 26 6 12 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Lake City 10.3 10.3 10.5 12.1 13.3 14.6 16.5 Wabasha 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.9 Alma Dam 4 7.5 7.5 7.6 8.9 10.1 11.5 13.4 MN City Dam 5 654.0 654.1 654.5 655.6 657.1 658.9 660.9 Winona Dam 5A 649.5 649.5 650.0 651.0 652.6 654.5 656.8 Winona 7.7 7.7 7.9 9.5 11.1 13.1 15.3 Trempealeau 642.6 642.6 642.7 643.8 645.0 646.6 648.3 La Crescent 635.6 635.6 635.7 637.3 638.7 640.1 641.8 La Crosse 7.4 7.4 7.5 9.2 10.5 11.9 13.3 Genoa 626.3 626.3 626.5 628.5 629.7 631.1 632.6 Lansing 9.0 9.0 9.2 10.3 11.4 12.9 14.9 Lynxville 618.3 618.3 618.6 620.1 621.5 623.2 625.1 McGregor 10.4 10.4 10.9 12.8 14.7 16.9 19.7 Guttenberg 9.4 9.4 9.9 11.7 13.3 15.0 17.0 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 5.9 6.7 8.2 10.4 12.8 16.9 19.8 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.9 7.2 12.2 16.2 :Root River Houston 4.2 4.2 5.0 7.0 8.9 13.7 15.6 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 2.0 2.1 2.4 3.6 6.5 11.4 13.3 :Cedar River Lansing 11.0 11.6 13.0 14.1 15.6 16.1 17.8 Austin 5.0 5.5 6.7 8.0 10.7 12.1 16.7 Charles City 3.4 3.6 4.8 6.3 9.1 13.8 18.8 :Turtle Creek Austin 2.3 2.4 3.7 6.0 7.6 9.8 11.8 :Turkey River Spillville 2.5 2.8 3.9 4.9 6.4 13.5 17.6 Elkader 6.3 6.9 7.9 9.5 12.8 16.0 19.8 Garber 7.0 7.6 9.1 11.3 15.4 20.3 25.9 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 4.2 4.6 5.1 6.0 6.9 8.3 9.9 Decorah 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.0 5.5 9.3 10.3 Dorchester 7.7 8.4 8.8 10.0 11.7 17.6 19.6 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 4.1 4.6 5.1 6.3 7.2 7.9 8.1 Dodge 6.6 7.3 7.8 8.6 9.7 10.9 11.2 :Black River Neillsville 5.2 5.8 7.2 8.8 11.1 13.2 14.5 Black River Falls 38.3 39.6 40.9 42.9 48.5 51.3 51.9 Galesville 5.4 6.8 7.6 9.1 11.9 13.0 13.3 :Kickapoo River La Farge 3.6 3.9 4.8 5.7 7.5 9.9 13.6 Viola 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.0 11.8 13.3 18.1 Readstown 5.2 5.5 6.6 7.8 10.8 12.7 15.1 Soldiers Grove 6.3 6.5 8.0 9.3 12.3 14.9 16.9 Gays Mills 7.4 7.8 9.0 10.6 13.2 15.8 16.8 Steuben 6.9 7.4 8.3 9.3 10.9 13.5 14.4 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 2.1 2.5 3.2 4.2 6.6 7.8 8.2 :Yellow River Necedah 10.4 10.4 11.3 12.9 15.2 16.4 16.5 In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages At Specific Locations Valid Period: 04/29/2024 - 07/28/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Mississippi River Lake City 7.7 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.8 Wabasha 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 Alma Dam 4 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 MN City Dam 5 652.0 651.5 651.3 651.2 651.1 651.1 651.0 Winona Dam 5A 646.8 646.3 646.0 645.9 645.7 645.6 645.5 Winona 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 Trempealeau 640.9 640.4 640.0 639.7 639.6 639.4 639.3 La Crescent 633.3 632.5 632.1 631.6 631.4 631.3 631.3 La Crosse 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 Genoa 623.8 622.7 622.1 621.4 621.0 620.8 620.6 Lansing 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 Lynxville 616.3 615.1 614.4 613.5 612.9 612.4 612.1 McGregor 8.9 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.2 Guttenberg 7.4 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.8 :Zumbro River Zumbro Falls 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 :South Fork Zumbro River Rochester 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 :Root River Houston 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 :South Branch Root River Lanesboro 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 :Cedar River Lansing 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 Austin 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 Charles City 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 :Turtle Creek Austin 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 :Turkey River Spillville 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 Elkader 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.9 Garber 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 :Upper Iowa River Bluffton 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 Decorah 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Dorchester 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 :Trempealeau River Arcadia 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 Dodge 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 :Black River Neillsville 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 Black River Falls 36.2 36.1 36.0 36.0 35.9 35.9 35.8 Galesville 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Kickapoo River La Farge 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 Viola 7.4 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 Readstown 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 Soldiers Grove 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 Gays Mills 6.8 6.6 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.3 Steuben 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.2 :Wisconsin River Muscoda 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 :Yellow River Necedah 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data, including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 and 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of rise associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. All of this information is also available in graphical format on the internet at: http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse The next outlook will be issued in late May. $$ Boyne