FGUS73 KDTX 141918 CCA ESFDTX MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-181200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO OUTLOOK NUMBER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1245 PM EST Thu Mar 14 2024 ...2024 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins... The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX. IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Pine River Midland 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Tittabawassee River Midland 24.0 25.0 28.0 9 17 6 15 <5 6 Shiawassee River Owosso 7.0 9.0 10.0 21 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kearsley Creek Davison 10.0 11.0 12.0 11 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Flint River Flint 13.0 15.0 17.0 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cass River Cass City 14.0 18.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Vassar 14.0 15.0 18.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Frankenmuth 17.0 20.0 25.0 25 38 <5 10 <5 <5 Saginaw River Saginaw 17.0 19.0 24.0 16 23 <5 11 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Clinton River Clinton Twp 16.0 17.0 19.0 10 13 7 8 <5 <5 MT Clemens 16.0 17.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 North Branch Clinton River Mt Clemens 15.0 16.0 18.0 <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 River Rouge Detroit 15.0 18.0 20.0 20 24 <5 <5 <5 <5 Middle River Rouge Dearborn Hts 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lower Rouge River Dearborn 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mill Creek Dexter 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 9 7 8 <5 5 Huron River Hamburg 7.0 7.5 8.0 12 20 <5 12 <5 7 Ann Arbor 16.0 17.0 18.0 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5 River Raisin Tecumseh 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Aadrian 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Blissfield 683.0 685.0 687.0 7 11 6 7 <5 <5 Dundee 650.0 652.0 653.0 <5 9 6 8 <5 7 Monroe 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 10 <5 6 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET ...PAST PRECIPITATION... This Winter was below normal in precipitation and much below normal in snow fall. ...RIVER CONDITIONS... Most rivers are flowing from around to below normal. Base flows are also around to below normal. ...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH... Upper zone of soil moisture is running around normal. The lower zone is below normal. Frost depths are little to none. ...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT... Snow pack is non existant at this time. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... The outlook for the next 8-14 days calls for above average temperatures and precipitation. The outlook for the rest of Spring is for above normal temperatures and normal to below normal precipitation. ...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK... At this point with a lack of frost depth and snow pack, flooding will be driven soley by excessive rainfall. The outlook for the rest of the Spring is for below average chances of minor flooding and much below average chance for moderate to major flooding. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX $$ DRC