FGUS73 KIND 141646 ESFIND INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-031-035-045-055-057-059-063-065- 067-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135- 139-145-153-157-159-165-167-171-191700- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Three for Central and much of Southern Indiana... The spring flood potential outlook covering mid-March through mid-May for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and their tributaries is near normal south of I-70 and slightly below normal north of I-70. A near normal to slightly below normal risk means that minor flooding is expected at times on the Wabash, lower White, and East Fork White, with isolated moderate flooding possible. This is an overall river flood risk through mid-May, but remember that locally heavy rainfall from any particular system could produce a locally enhanced short term flood risk, and this is a concern for the current system moving through. Over the last three months, precipitation across central and southern portions of the state ranged from around 70 percent to 130 percent of normal, with the majority of the area in the 90 to 110 percent range. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions persist across parts of central and southwestern Indiana. Precipitation over the last 14 days varied from half an inch to three inches with a few locally higher amounts. Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal. There is no snow depth or river ice in the state. Seven day average streamflow is currently near normal across much of central Indiana, with above normal streamflow across southeastern Indiana and below normal streamflow in the Wabash basin. The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals of around a quarter inch or so over the Ohio River increasing heading north, with much of central and northern Indiana expected to see one to two inches. Most of this is forecast to arrive in the next 24 hours with a strong storm system that is moving through the Ohio Valley. This system itself is expected to bring minor flooding to parts of area rivers in the next few days, and will present a locally higher short term flood risk. The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a lean toward above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures. The 90 day seasonal outlook for March through May is unchanged from the previous flood outlook issuance, showing a lean toward both above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. There is no river ice in central and southern Indiana and thus no risk of ice jam flooding this spring. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Shelbyville 13.0 15.0 18.0 : 31 31 19 19 <5 <5 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 54 64 20 25 <5 <5 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 9.0 11.0 15.0 : 10 18 7 10 <5 <5 :East Fork White River Columbus 9.0 14.0 16.0 : 32 33 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rivervale 20.0 30.0 35.0 : 64 68 6 10 <5 <5 Bedford 20.0 27.0 32.0 : 48 52 10 13 <5 <5 Seymour 12.0 17.0 19.0 : 76 91 26 26 <5 <5 Shoals 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 24 36 11 16 <5 <5 Williams 8.0 14.0 20.0 : 53 61 11 17 <5 <5 :Eel River Bowling Green 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 55 60 20 22 <5 6 :Flatrock River Columbus 11.0 15.0 19.0 : 51 38 6 <5 <5 <5 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 17.0 27.0 32.0 : 20 18 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 15.0 17.0 21.0 : 14 23 <5 16 <5 8 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 8.0 12.0 15.0 : 28 44 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wabash River Covington 16.0 24.0 29.0 : 83 92 13 18 <5 <5 Hutsonville Legac 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 92 >95 15 20 <5 <5 Lafayette 11.0 18.0 26.0 : 86 93 21 30 <5 <5 Mount Carmel 19.0 25.0 32.0 : 71 81 32 43 <5 <5 Montezuma 14.0 24.0 31.0 : 92 >95 23 24 <5 <5 Riverton 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 91 >95 27 30 <5 <5 Terre Haute 16.5 24.5 30.0 : 90 93 26 17 <5 <5 Vincennes 16.0 22.0 28.0 : 61 78 22 25 <5 <5 :White River Anderson 10.0 15.0 19.0 : 21 32 6 6 <5 <5 Eagle Valley Powe 603.0 607.0 610.0 : 36 48 <5 10 <5 <5 Centerton 12.0 16.0 19.0 : 35 46 <5 10 <5 <5 Elliston 18.0 25.0 29.0 : 79 86 17 22 <5 <5 Edwardsport 15.0 22.0 25.0 : 80 89 17 23 <5 <5 Hazleton 16.0 24.0 28.0 : 82 86 22 30 <5 6 Indianapolis 16.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Muncie 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 10 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Noblesville 14.0 19.0 22.0 : 23 39 6 7 <5 <5 Nora 11.0 16.0 19.0 : 23 38 7 8 <5 <5 Newberry 13.0 19.0 24.0 : 64 78 19 33 <5 <5 Petersburg 16.0 23.5 26.0 : 83 84 25 27 7 6 Ravenswood 6.0 10.0 12.0 : 29 47 7 8 <5 <5 Spencer 14.0 20.0 24.0 : 51 80 9 18 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 10.0 15.0 19.5 : 57 59 17 21 8 9 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Shelbyville 7.0 7.9 9.4 10.5 13.8 16.7 17.3 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 5.2 7.3 8.9 11.4 13.6 14.8 15.1 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 2.5 2.8 3.7 4.3 5.5 9.0 12.1 :East Fork White River Columbus 1.5 2.3 3.5 7.0 9.8 12.2 13.4 Rivervale 12.3 14.1 18.7 21.7 24.9 29.2 30.2 Bedford 10.0 12.2 16.1 19.8 22.4 27.0 29.4 Seymour 8.1 9.8 12.1 15.5 17.0 17.9 18.4 Shoals 6.7 7.3 10.5 15.0 19.6 25.5 28.7 Williams 3.7 4.5 6.2 8.2 10.2 14.2 16.6 :Eel River Bowling Green 8.6 11.0 12.9 15.5 19.3 21.4 21.7 :Flatrock River Columbus 6.0 6.9 8.5 11.1 12.9 14.4 15.1 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 5.1 5.7 7.5 11.4 15.8 19.2 22.2 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 5.6 6.5 7.9 9.6 12.4 16.0 16.3 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 4.3 4.7 5.7 6.7 8.2 9.5 11.0 :Wabash River Covington 13.6 15.1 17.0 19.2 22.7 24.3 25.2 Hutsonville Legac 14.5 16.8 18.2 20.1 23.2 24.4 24.9 Lafayette 8.7 10.6 12.1 14.5 17.6 19.3 21.5 Mount Carmel 12.5 14.6 18.6 21.5 26.4 28.4 29.4 Montezuma 12.7 15.1 17.6 21.0 23.8 25.2 27.2 Riverton 12.6 15.6 16.9 18.8 22.3 23.7 24.3 Terre Haute 13.8 16.6 18.2 21.2 24.6 25.9 26.5 Vincennes 10.5 12.7 14.3 17.3 21.7 23.5 24.2 :White River Anderson 5.9 6.3 7.3 8.6 9.6 11.0 16.5 Eagle Valley Powe 596.9 597.7 599.8 601.5 604.2 605.8 606.8 Centerton 3.4 4.7 7.6 9.9 13.4 15.2 15.9 Elliston 12.5 15.7 18.8 21.5 24.0 25.8 26.4 Edwardsport 10.4 12.8 16.2 18.6 20.5 23.2 23.5 Hazleton 11.7 13.6 18.2 20.8 23.4 26.2 27.2 Indianapolis 6.2 6.8 7.9 9.5 10.7 13.7 15.6 Muncie 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.9 11.5 Noblesville 7.2 8.2 9.3 11.3 13.6 17.1 19.8 Nora 5.2 5.9 7.1 9.1 10.7 13.5 17.7 Newberry 6.2 8.2 11.6 14.8 17.9 20.8 21.4 Petersburg 11.1 13.6 18.7 21.0 23.6 25.5 26.2 Ravenswood 1.8 2.3 3.4 5.1 6.2 8.0 11.3 Spencer 6.5 7.0 11.0 14.1 17.3 19.9 20.9 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 6.6 7.3 8.9 10.4 12.4 17.5 22.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Shelbyville 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 :Driftwood River Edinburgh 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 :Eagle Creek Zionsville 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 :East Fork White River Rivervale 6.4 6.1 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.1 Bedford 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 Seymour 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 Shoals 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 Williams 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 :Eel River Bowling Green 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 :Flatrock River Columbus 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 :Muscatatuck River Vernon 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Sugar Creek Crawfordsville 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 :Tippecanoe River Delphi 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 :Wabash River Covington 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.1 4.6 4.3 Hutsonville Legac 7.1 6.6 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 Lafayette 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 Mount Carmel 6.9 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 3.2 Montezuma 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.6 Riverton 5.4 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.6 Terre Haute 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.6 Vincennes 5.0 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.7 :White River Anderson 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 Eagle Valley Powe 594.7 594.6 594.5 594.3 594.2 594.1 594.1 Elliston 8.4 7.6 7.0 6.3 5.8 5.3 4.2 Edwardsport 6.3 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.2 Hazleton 6.2 5.5 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.1 Indianapolis 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 Muncie 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Noblesville 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 Nora 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 Newberry 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 Petersburg 5.7 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.4 Ravenswood 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Spencer 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 :Wildcat Creek Lafayette 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, which will soon be transitioning to National Water Prediction Services. Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water information. For a graphical version of this product visit weather.gov/ind/SpringHydrologicOutlook. This is the final outlook for 2024. $$ CP