FGUS73 KLMK 141612 ESFLMK INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009- 017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103- 111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211- 213-215-217-223-229-239-150000- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Louisville KY 1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3... This outlook covers south central Indiana, central Kentucky, and the Ohio River from Madison, Indiana to Tell City, Indiana. The flood risk in the middle of the Ohio Valley is normal to below normal for this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rainfall and thunderstorms with isolated moderate flooding possible. This outlook is valid through May 2024. In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Barren River Bowling Green 28.0 32.0 45.0 : 10 11 5 8 <5 <5 :Blue River Fredericksburg 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 24 25 13 13 <5 <5 :Cumberland River Burkesville 46.0 55.0 64.0 : 15 22 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 24.0 35.0 42.0 : 33 29 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 30 33 20 21 13 14 :Green River Munfordville 28.0 50.0 57.0 : 9 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mammoth Cave 32.0 57.0 62.0 : <5 55 <5 <5 <5 <5 Rochester 37.0 45.0 50.0 : 54 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Woodbury 26.0 38.0 41.0 : 60 59 7 13 <5 <5 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 30.0 36.0 40.0 : 17 22 7 16 <5 11 Frankfort Lock 31.0 35.0 40.0 : 8 8 6 <5 <5 <5 Ford Lock 26.0 35.0 40.0 : 14 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 High Bridge Lock 30.0 36.0 39.0 : 9 10 6 <5 <5 <5 Lockport Lock 33.0 43.0 49.0 : 18 20 6 6 <5 <5 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 25.0 42.0 45.0 : 40 27 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 25.0 28.0 32.0 : 19 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 451.0 457.0 470.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Cannelton Lock an 42.0 46.0 50.0 : 19 26 <5 <5 <5 <5 McAlpine Lower 55.0 65.0 73.0 : 11 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 McAlpine Upper 23.0 30.0 38.0 : 15 23 <5 <5 <5 <5 Tell City 38.0 44.0 50.0 : 42 49 <5 7 <5 <5 :Rolling Fork River Boston 35.0 42.0 45.0 : 25 35 6 10 <5 7 :Rough River Dundee 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 36 29 17 14 <5 5 :Salt River Shepherdsville 32.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 8 <5 6 <5 <5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 20.0 22.0 23.0 : 14 17 8 11 6 8 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 11.9 12.5 14.6 21.8 24.5 28.1 32.3 :Blue River Fredericksburg 6.0 6.5 8.1 10.0 19.7 24.9 26.0 :Cumberland River Burkesville 31.3 32.9 35.8 39.8 44.2 46.8 48.5 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 8.8 10.1 12.1 20.5 25.5 29.5 30.6 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 5.0 5.7 6.6 7.5 10.6 15.0 16.5 :Green River Munfordville 9.9 10.7 13.1 15.3 19.3 26.6 35.0 Mammoth Cave 19.1 20.2 22.9 25.8 30.8 36.8 40.5 Rochester 33.4 34.3 35.7 37.2 39.7 42.0 44.8 Woodbury 15.8 19.4 23.4 27.7 31.0 36.3 38.9 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 18.8 20.0 22.2 25.3 27.9 32.0 39.3 Frankfort Lock 12.0 12.3 13.4 17.8 21.7 27.7 36.4 Ford Lock 16.0 17.3 18.9 21.4 23.7 26.7 32.1 High Bridge Lock 15.9 16.8 18.0 21.0 23.6 27.8 37.5 Lockport Lock 15.7 16.6 18.3 25.1 27.5 39.9 43.8 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 15.2 15.9 18.2 23.0 28.3 31.9 33.5 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 8.6 9.3 12.6 19.0 23.6 27.3 27.7 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 429.6 432.0 436.1 440.7 444.1 448.2 449.9 Cannelton Lock an 24.9 28.0 33.6 37.9 41.2 43.3 43.6 McAlpine Lower 31.4 34.9 41.2 47.1 50.7 55.4 57.2 McAlpine Upper 12.7 13.5 16.5 18.0 20.5 24.4 26.2 Tell City 23.9 26.9 32.5 36.7 40.6 42.7 43.0 :Rolling Fork River Boston 16.0 18.7 22.5 27.2 35.0 37.9 42.8 :Rough River Dundee 16.6 17.3 19.2 22.4 27.0 28.8 29.5 :Salt River Shepherdsville 5.2 6.0 7.3 10.2 18.2 25.2 26.2 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 7.5 8.5 9.5 12.6 16.4 21.2 23.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Barren River Bowling Green 8.8 7.7 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 :Blue River Fredericksburg 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 :Cumberland River Burkesville 31.1 29.9 29.2 27.9 27.4 24.8 24.3 :Drakes Creek Alvaton 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 :Elkhorn Creek Peaks Mill 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 :Green River Munfordville 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.9 Mammoth Cave 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.2 Rochester 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 Woodbury 7.4 6.8 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.4 :Kentucky River Camp Nelson Lock 12.9 12.7 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.5 Frankfort Lock 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 Ford Lock 10.9 10.8 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6 High Bridge Lock 10.0 9.9 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 Lockport Lock 9.7 9.5 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.3 :Licking River Blue Licks Spring 10.1 7.9 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 :Muscatatuck River Deputy 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 :Ohio River Clifty Creek 422.2 422.1 421.7 421.3 421.1 421.0 420.9 Cannelton Lock an 14.4 14.0 12.8 12.2 11.6 11.3 11.2 McAlpine Lower 15.7 15.4 13.7 12.5 11.8 11.4 11.2 McAlpine Upper 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Tell City 15.3 15.1 14.2 13.6 12.9 12.7 12.5 :Rolling Fork River Boston 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 :Rough River Dundee 7.7 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 :Salt River Shepherdsville 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 :South Fork Licking River Cynthiana 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Since mid December, precipitation has been at or slightly below normal and temperatures have been above normal across the region. As of mid March, soil moisture was below normal. Streamflows were near normal over central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Reservoir levels were near or slightly above normal. Over the next week, the weather pattern will feature one main weather system bringing showers and storms to the area today through Friday. Total precipitation over the next week should range from half an inch to two inches. The 8-14 day outlook which goes out through March 27 calls for near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. At this time of year, normal temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s and normal precipitation is around a quarter to one inch. The outlook for late March to early April calls for near normal temperatures and precipitation. Normal temperatures for late March are in the low 50s with normal precipitation between a quarter to one inch. The seasonal outlook for March through May indicates good chances for above normal temperatures and precipitation. Additional supportive data and explanations are available for precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at www.cpc.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa. Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch. Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl- wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html. Visit our web site weather.gov/lmk for more weather and water information. This is the final hydro outlook for Spring 2024. $$ AMS