FGUS73 KOAX 211810 CCA ESFOAX NEC003-023-025-039-053-055-067-095-107-109-119-127-139-141-147-151- 153-155-159-167-IAC071-085-133-137-145-155-212000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...RESENT National Weather Service Omaha NE 259 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...There is a below normal risk for flooding this spring... .2024 Spring Flood Outlook The lack of an established snowpack, both in the Plains and in the mountains, along with below normal soil moisture, had lead to a decreased risk for flooding this spring. Any flooding that does occur this spring will be largely dependent on the location and intensity of additional precipitation and thunderstorms. For a thorough explanation of the current conditions, please visit: www.weather.gov/omaha/SpringFloodOutlook In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Niobrara River Verdel 8.0 9.5 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Ponca Creek Verdel 13.5 15.0 17.0 : 15 21 10 16 <5 <5 :Missouri River Decatur 35.0 38.0 41.0 : <5 16 <5 8 <5 6 Blair 26.5 28.5 33.0 : 6 23 <5 10 <5 6 Omaha 27.0 32.0 40.0 : 16 47 <5 17 <5 <5 Plattsmouth 26.0 32.0 35.0 : 16 52 <5 24 <5 8 Nebraska City 18.0 23.0 27.0 : 38 61 10 37 <5 <5 Brownville 34.0 38.5 43.0 : 38 66 14 46 <5 12 Rulo 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 33 63 15 49 <5 5 :Elkhorn River Neligh 11.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Norfolk 12.0 13.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 20 <5 8 <5 <5 :Elkhorn River Pilger 12.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 West Point 12.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 Winslow 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 8 16 <5 5 <5 <5 :Logan Creek Uehling 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Maple Creek Nickerson 11.5 13.0 17.0 : 9 18 8 12 <5 6 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 14.0 18.0 21.0 : 13 24 <5 6 <5 <5 :Platte River Duncan 8.0 9.0 10.0 : 17 13 9 11 5 7 :Shell Creek Columbus 30.0 31.0 32.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River North Bend 8.0 10.0 11.5 : 9 18 <5 6 <5 <5 Leshara 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 11 20 <5 5 <5 <5 Ashland 20.0 22.0 23.5 : 12 24 <5 6 <5 5 :Salt Creek Roca 19.0 21.5 23.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lincoln (N 27th S 20.5 26.5 29.0 : 6 6 <5 5 <5 <5 Greenwood 20.0 24.0 31.0 : 19 31 6 7 <5 <5 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 19.0 20.5 23.0 : 33 50 30 44 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ashland 20.0 21.0 26.0 : 17 33 10 24 <5 <5 :Platte River Louisville 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 16 33 <5 6 <5 5 :Big Blue River Surprise 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 12 23 5 15 <5 <5 :Lincoln Creek Seward 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 37 55 20 43 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Seward 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 8 23 <5 8 <5 <5 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 15.0 22.0 24.4 : 24 51 <5 8 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Crete 21.0 25.0 31.0 : 35 56 6 25 <5 6 :Turkey Creek Wilber 12.5 16.0 21.0 : 30 44 <5 11 <5 <5 De Witt 23.5 25.0 27.0 : 10 28 6 13 5 6 :Big Blue River Beatrice 18.0 26.0 32.0 : 13 41 <5 9 <5 <5 Barneston 20.0 27.0 33.0 : 20 41 <5 10 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Fairbury 18.5 20.0 23.0 : 6 19 6 11 <5 5 :Maple River Mapleton 21.0 22.0 23.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Sioux River Turin 25.0 28.0 34.5 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Soldier River Pisgah 28.0 29.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Boyer River Logan 21.0 22.0 25.0 : 8 9 8 9 7 8 :Weeping Water Creek Union 25.0 28.0 30.0 : 13 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 18.0 22.0 27.0 : 15 46 8 15 <5 <5 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 14.0 19.0 23.0 : 12 38 11 13 9 11 Randolph 19.0 22.0 27.0 : 12 53 10 13 5 5 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 25.0 27.5 33.0 : 19 62 9 22 <5 <5 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 19 18 17 17 <5 <5 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 28.0 29.5 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 27.0 30.0 36.0 : 12 18 10 14 <5 <5 :Nodaway River Clarinda 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 9 15 7 8 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Niobrara River Verdel 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.3 6.1 :Ponca Creek Verdel 6.8 7.4 8.0 10.2 12.7 15.1 15.8 :Missouri River Decatur 20.6 20.6 20.9 21.5 25.8 30.5 34.1 Blair 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.3 17.8 23.4 26.9 Omaha 14.9 15.0 15.8 17.6 22.3 29.5 31.4 Plattsmouth 15.1 15.1 17.4 19.8 24.6 29.6 31.2 Nebraska City 9.9 9.9 12.7 14.9 20.0 23.0 23.9 Brownville 25.0 25.2 27.6 31.4 35.5 39.8 41.6 Rulo 7.1 7.2 9.9 13.9 18.5 22.1 23.3 :Elkhorn River Neligh 2.7 4.2 5.2 6.5 8.3 10.0 10.9 Norfolk 2.8 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.9 8.4 8.8 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 2.6 2.7 3.4 5.2 6.8 9.3 10.1 :Elkhorn River Pilger 7.0 7.3 8.0 9.2 9.5 10.5 11.2 West Point 4.0 4.3 4.6 7.4 8.5 10.5 11.5 Winslow 9.4 9.6 10.9 12.9 15.1 16.3 17.6 :Logan Creek Uehling 3.5 4.2 6.1 8.6 10.9 12.2 12.6 :Maple Creek Nickerson 2.4 2.7 5.1 7.0 8.0 10.8 15.1 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 2.8 3.4 5.1 8.6 11.5 14.8 15.3 :Platte River Duncan 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.4 7.2 8.9 10.0 :Shell Creek Columbus 10.6 10.6 15.8 23.5 27.4 28.6 29.6 :Platte River North Bend 3.6 3.8 4.6 5.5 7.1 7.9 9.0 Leshara 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.2 7.5 8.1 8.8 Ashland 15.0 15.2 16.8 18.2 19.3 20.8 21.1 :Salt Creek Roca 1.5 1.5 2.5 4.8 12.6 16.7 20.4 Lincoln (N 27th S 2.3 2.3 3.1 6.6 13.4 16.7 23.6 Greenwood 2.2 2.3 3.6 8.4 17.1 21.1 25.1 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 3.5 3.5 5.0 10.0 21.8 22.3 22.5 :Salt Creek Ashland 7.1 7.2 8.5 13.5 18.1 21.0 21.7 :Platte River Louisville 3.9 4.0 5.3 6.8 8.3 9.5 9.9 :Big Blue River Surprise 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.5 8.1 10.0 :Lincoln Creek Seward 4.1 4.5 7.5 11.8 16.5 17.7 18.5 :Big Blue River Seward 1.6 1.8 3.1 7.4 12.9 16.9 20.1 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 3.6 4.4 5.0 10.9 14.5 18.9 20.3 :Big Blue River Crete 8.7 9.8 11.5 18.4 22.2 24.2 25.6 :Turkey Creek Wilber 2.5 4.3 5.8 9.7 13.6 14.6 15.6 De Witt 10.4 12.4 13.9 16.8 21.4 23.5 27.1 :Big Blue River Beatrice 3.8 4.9 7.7 11.2 16.1 18.8 24.8 Barneston 5.3 5.9 10.7 13.7 19.4 23.8 25.6 :Little Blue River Fairbury 7.6 8.6 9.9 12.7 15.1 17.5 21.6 :Maple River Mapleton 4.5 5.2 6.6 7.3 8.3 9.5 16.7 :Little Sioux River Turin 7.7 8.2 9.6 11.4 12.7 15.3 21.1 :Soldier River Pisgah 3.2 4.0 5.7 7.9 9.2 10.4 14.6 :Boyer River Logan 3.5 5.7 7.7 9.4 10.7 14.6 29.1 :Weeping Water Creek Union 4.3 5.5 6.3 10.1 20.4 26.3 26.6 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 6.0 8.0 9.7 13.3 15.2 20.3 24.4 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 3.1 4.9 6.1 7.7 8.9 20.5 29.1 Randolph 8.6 11.0 13.6 15.0 16.4 22.3 26.5 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 9.5 13.2 17.1 20.6 24.2 27.1 31.3 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 4.4 7.6 8.7 13.2 21.0 23.5 24.1 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 3.8 4.4 6.2 7.7 12.7 19.3 22.2 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 6.0 7.5 10.4 14.5 18.5 30.5 32.1 :Nodaway River Clarinda 11.0 11.7 12.1 13.4 18.2 21.5 26.4 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Niobrara River Verdel 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Ponca Creek Verdel 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 :Missouri River Decatur 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.8 Blair 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Omaha 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.8 Plattsmouth 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.8 Nebraska City 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 Brownville 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.6 20.5 Rulo 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 :Elkhorn River Neligh 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 Norfolk 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 :North Fork Elkhorn River Pierce 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 :Elkhorn River Pilger 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.3 West Point 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 Winslow 8.8 8.8 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 :Logan Creek Uehling 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 :Maple Creek Nickerson 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :Elkhorn River Waterloo 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.4 :Platte River Duncan 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 :Shell Creek Columbus 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 :Platte River North Bend 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 Leshara 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.5 Ashland 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.8 :Salt Creek Roca 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Lincoln (N 27th S 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Greenwood 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 :Wahoo Creek Ithaca 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 :Salt Creek Ashland 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 :Platte River Louisville 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 :Big Blue River Surprise 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 :Lincoln Creek Seward 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 :Big Blue River Seward 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 :West Fork Big Blue River Dorchester 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Big Blue River Crete 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 :Turkey Creek Wilber 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 De Witt 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 :Big Blue River Beatrice 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Barneston 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 :Little Blue River Fairbury 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 :Maple River Mapleton 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Little Sioux River Turin 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.4 6.2 :Soldier River Pisgah 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 :Boyer River Logan 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 :Weeping Water Creek Union 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 :East Nishnabotna River Red Oak 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.6 :West Nishnabotna River Hancock 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 Randolph 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.8 :Nishnabotna River Hamburg 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.2 :Little Nemaha River Auburn 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 :North Fork Big Nemaha River Humboldt 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 :Big Nemaha River Falls City 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 :Nodaway River Clarinda 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. Visit our web site weather.gov/oax for more weather and water information. This is the final outlook. $$ Pearson