FGUS74 KLZK 052226 ESFLZK ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051- 053-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105- 109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-070330- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 430 PM CST THU MAR 05 2020 ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS... The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Little Rock has a Hydrologic Service Area which is wholly located within the state of Arkansas. It encompasses an area which includes the White River from Bull Shoals Dam downstream and the Ouachita River and tributaries from the headwaters to the upper boundary of the Felsenthal National Wildlife Refuge. Along with the main stem of these rivers, it also includes tributaries with forecast locations on the Cache, Black, Spring, Saline, Petit Jean, Fourche LaFave, Little Missouri, Buffalo, Little Red, and Eleven Point Rivers. EXISTING CONDITIONS... Rainfall - Over much of the winter, well above normal precipitation has occurred over the White, Lower Arkansas, and Upper Ouachita River Basins. The lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys have had 20 to 40 inches of rainfall over the past 3 months with 10 to 20 inches occurring over the past month. Snowpack - The upper Mississippi Valley has had significant snow this year. Snow depths of 10 to 20 inches is covering portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and north Iowa. Snow water equivalents range from 2 to 6 inches over this area. The remainder of the area is relatively snow free, including Arkansas. Soil Moisture - Soil moisture and streamflow conditions are significantly above normal over the White, Lower Arkansas, and Upper Ouachita River Basins due to recent rainfall. River Flows and Reservoirs - Storage capacity at the Corps of Engineer Projects in the White River basin is 1 to 7 feet above normal pool. Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas all have much of their flood control capacity available at this time. White River Basin... Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE flood potential is expected over the lower White and Black Basins. Percent of Average Flood Control storage for the Black/White Basin Reservoirs are given below. 3/5 Clearwater Res. MO 100% Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR 87% Recent rainfall has allowed streamflows to rise to above seasonal levels. Soil moisture conditions are above normal and minor flooding continues on the lower Black and lower White Rivers. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below. 3/5 Black River Black Rock AR 151% White River Newport AR 191% ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN... The potential for flood conditions on the mainstem Arkansas River will be near normal. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in response to specific heavy precipitation events. Also, the Arkansas River may flood in response to upstream conditions. The wet antecedent soil conditions warrant the above normal potential of flooding. Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas have been above average along the Oklahoma border. Precipitation has been above normal near Little Rock and southeastward, as well. Soil moisture conditions in western Arkansas are above normal. The most significant anomalies are across Northwest Arkansas. Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas all have much of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows in western Arkansas are all near normal. OUACHITA RIVER BASIN... Streamflows are near to above normal and soil moisture content are above seasonal averages. Minor flooding is occurring now in Arkansas and Louisiana. Over the next 7 days, one to three inches of rainfall is forecast over the area and this may cause renewed minor flooding on smaller tributaries going into the Ouachita River. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below. 3/5 Ouachita River Camden AR 96% Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE flood potential is expected over the Ouachita and Black River Basins. Percent of available reservoir flood control storage is given below. 3/5 Lake Ouachita AR 100% DeGray Res. AR 100% ...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... The 8-14 DAY Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates chances of above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures. The 30-DAY Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates increased chances (33-40%) of above median precipitation. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2020 indicates no drought in Arkansas. CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20, 2020 indicates Arkansas should remain drought-free during the next three months. CONCLUSION... Overall, Arkansas is expected to have a near average flood potential on the Arkansas River and its tributaries. An above average flood potential is expected in the White and Upper Ouachita River Basin due to antecedent conditions heading into Spring. The Spring Flood Potential Outlook is a routine product. Should excessive rainfall become part of the forecast at any time frame of the year, a river flood warnings will be issued with event specific information. For the latest river stage information, forecast, and warnings please visit our website at: http://www.weather.gov/lzk River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the rivers and lakes AHPS link on the front page. $$ 61