FGUS74 KMOB 051626 ESFMOB ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-FLC033-091-113- MSC039-041-111-131-153-071615- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Mobile AL 1025 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 ...North Central Gulf Coast Spring Flood Potential Outlook... ...Flood Risk Is Above Normal for interior southeast Mississippi, southwest and south-central Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle... ...Historically... Historically, our regional river flood season begins in early to mid January, peaks in early to mid March and then tapers off in the late April to early May time frame. ...Current Hydrologic Conditions... Rainfall amounts across the region in the last 30 days: Many areas along and north of the Highway 84 corridor have recorded 150 to 200% of normal rainfall. Inland portions of the western Florida Panhandle, have recorded up to 150% of normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Across southern and western parts of the area, rainfall has been near to slightly below normal, ranging from 50 to 125% of normal, with the least amount of rainfall occurring along the coast. For detailed information concerning precipitation analyzes for the region go to: https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?location_type=wfo&location _name=mob Streamflow: In general, streamflows are currently running near to above normal over much of the region based on data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below: As of 3/5/20 Minor river flooding from earlier rainfalls continues along the following rivers in southeast Mississippi : LEAF RIVER MCLAIN MS 78% CHICKASAWHAY RIVER LEAKESVILLE MS 130% PASCAGOULA RIVER MERRILL MS 77% Minor river flooding from earlier rainfalls continues along the following rivers in southwest AL: TOMBIGBEE RIVER COFFEEVILLE L&D 190% Additional moderate river flooding is expected along the following rivers in southwest AL: ALABAMA RIVER CLAIBORNE L&D 200% ...Soil Moisture... Soil moisture is above normal over southeast Mississippi, interior southwest Alabama, and south central Alabama. Soil moisture is near normal across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. For detailed information concerning precipitation analyzes for the region...go to: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst. shtml ...Hydrometeorological Outlooks... Future Precipitation: In the short term, a few fast moving weather systems will bring some rain to the area the week of March 9th, but precipitations totals are not currently expected to be high. The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for mid to late March across the region is for near normal rainfall inland with a higher probability of below normal rainfall closer to the coast. The longer term precipitation probability outlooks through May based on the Climate Prediction Center's Long Lead Outlook indicates a greater probability of above normal precipitation across the area. For detailed information concerning precipitation probability outlooks go to: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Also, historically, some of our greatest excessive precipitation events have occurred over our region during the March through May period. Long lead precipitation outlooks are based on forecasts of persistent global circulation patterns. These outlooks do not account for individual weather systems which may produce just a few hours of deep convective thunderstorm activity that are more than capable of breaking daily, weekly and\or monthly rainfall records in a single event. So, be prepared and have a plan! If we see such a pattern becoming established for any future evolving weather system, this product (and others) will be used to provide updates. ...Spring Flood Outlook... Considering current streamflow conditions, ongoing flooding, antecedent soil moisture, past and future precipitation, and long range precipitation probability outlooks, an above normal Spring flood risk is generally expected over the region. Additional and current local weather information can be found at: https://weather.gov/mob For more detailed information concerning river states and forecasts, go to: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mob For a precipitation analysis, go to: https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?location_type=wfo&location Questions and\or Comments? Please contact Steve Miller, Hydrology Program Manager, by e-mail (stephen.a.miller@noaa.gov) or by phone at 251-633-6443. $$