FGUS74 KTSA 051730 ESFTSA ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077- 079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145- 147-061730- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2020 ...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas... ...Flood risk is near average for the mainstem Arkansas River in west central Arkansas... ...Flood risk is above average for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas... The potential for flood conditions in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will be above normal this spring, except along the mainstem Arkansas River in west central Arkansas where the flood potential is near normal. Wet antecedent soil conditions warrant a raised risk for spring flooding. Flooding in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas usually occurs in response to specific heavy precipitation events. However, the Arkansas River may flood in response to upstream conditions. Precipitation totals and soil moisture are generally above normal across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The precipitation total for the last 90 days ranges from 90 percent to 150 percent across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Soil moisture across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas is currently above normal, although the most significant above normal anomaly is in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Reservoir storage in Oklahoma is near design conditions. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs currently have almost all of their flood control storage available. Eastern Oklahoma lakes have about 92 percent of their flood control storage available. In northwest Arkansas, Beaver Lake has approximately 25 percent of its flood control storage available. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the 28-day streamflow conditions range from above normal (76th-90th percentile) to much above normal (greater than 90th percentile) for this time of year across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The February 20, 2020 Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Spring Outlook (March-April-May) indicates there is an increased chance for above normal temperatures south of I-40, and equal chances for above, near, or below normal temperatures north of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This outlook also indicates increased chances of above median precipitation for western Arkansas, and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation for eastern Oklahoma. The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2020 indicates no drought in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20, 2020 indicates eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should remain drought-free during the next three months. For the latest river stage information, forecasts, and warnings, please visit our website at www.weather.gov/tulsa River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the Rivers and Lakes link. $$