FNUS73 KPAH 281131 FWSPAH Spot Forecast for TA51...DoD Ft Campbell National Weather Service Paducah KY 631 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on March 28. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Light winds this morning will lead to poor smoke dispersion through midday. Westerly winds increase this afternoon as mixing deepens, leading to fair smoke dispersion by mid to late afternoon. RH values are expected to drop to between 25 and 30 percent. Combined with dry fuels this will lead to an elevated fire weather risk. Friday will feature much stronger southwest winds through the transport layer leading to very good smoke dispersion. Minimum RH values will once again drop to between 25 and 30 percent. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Widespread frost early in the morning, then areas of frost early in the morning. CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 62. RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Winds northeast at 2 mph at ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the west 5 to 7 mph early in the afternoon increasing to around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 9 mph shifting to the northwest 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair /46100 knot-ft/. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR Weather cov.....WID ARS Weather type....FST FST Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............36 36 44 48 52 56 58 60 61 62 62 RH..............75 72 57 47 41 35 33 31 29 28 30 20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE E NE NW W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..2 2 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 20 FT wind gust.7 7 6 6 7 10 10 12 13 13 12 Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.0 4.1 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.5 Transp wind dir.E E E NE N NW NW NW NW W W Transp wind spd.8 7 9 8 5 6 8 8 9 9 9 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 3 10 14 12 21 36 39 46 46 44 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........Min 43. RH..................Max 67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2600 knot-ft). Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............60 56 53 52 49 48 47 46 46 45 45 44 RH..............32 40 43 46 52 54 56 58 58 62 62 65 20 FT wind dir..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..7 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 20 FT wind gust.10 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW Transp wind spd.9 7 8 8 9 9 12 13 13 13 13 13 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..26 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 5 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Temperature.........Max 70. RH..................Min 28 percent. Wind (20 ft)........ Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (98600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............44 48 58 65 69 70 RH..............65 60 45 35 31 30 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT wind spd..7 9 10 12 12 12 20 FT wind gust.12 13 15 17 17 17 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.7 1.6 3.7 5.3 5.3 Transp wind dir.SW W W SW SW SW Transp wind spd.13 14 16 20 20 20 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 8 23 62 92 90 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...POULOS Requested by...Sean Connelly Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2408708.0/PAH .DELDT 03/28/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL sean.m.connelly6.civ@army.mil