FOCN45 CWWG 161300
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CST SUNDAY
NOVEMBER 16 2025.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SE NWT, FAR NE ALBERTA, AND FAR NW
SASKATCHEWAN.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH SOUTHWARD, THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IS OVER BC AND ALBERTA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WITH A LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR
CHURCHILL. THE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, TO THE GREAT
LAKES. RIDGING IS OVER BAFFIN ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NWT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PRAIRIES TO THE AMERICAN GREAT PLAINS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRECHES THROUGH HUDSON BAY, THROUGH THE KIVALLIQ AND
CONNECTS TO A LOW NEAR BANKS ISLAND. RIDGING IS OVER BAFFIN BAY AND
NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND.

DISCUSSION...

AB/NRN SK/SRN NT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START SPREADING ALONG A WARM
FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST NT TODAY, REACHING FORT
SMITH AND URANIUM CITY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTANT
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH AMERICAN GUIDANCE PUSHING SNOW CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CANADIAN OR EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS. CANADIAN
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CREEPING NORTHWARDS, BUT STILL NOT AS FAR AS THE
AMERICANS'. QSF FOR THIS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 06Z RDPS.

CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE LOCAL QSF AMOUNTS REACHING 15 MM
WATER EQUIVALENT BETWEEN FORT CHIP, FORT SMITH, AND URANIUM CITY, AND
IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT SLR RATIOS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 10:1, BUT THE
RESULTING AREA OF 15 CM+ OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS WOULD BE NARROW AND
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH PRECISION, IF IT EXISTS AT ALL, MAKING IT
HARD TO GET A SNOWFALL WARNING TO VERIFY. GIVEN THIS, 10 TO 15 CM IS
WIDELY FORECAST FOR THESE THREE REGIONS, AND A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED. AMOUNTS ARE PUSHED UP SOMEWHAT ABOVE 10:1
SLRS FURTHER NORTH AROUND GREAT SLAVE LAKE, WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SMALL AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT
IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, BUT SHOULD NOT BE
WIDSPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW FOR FOG PATCHES OR FOG BANKS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE QEII CORRIDOR, OR JUST EAST OF THERE, TONIGHT.

SRN SK/MB...FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MANITOBA.

A LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN ALBERTA ON MONDAY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHERN MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL PROG SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A
DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE DURATION OF
THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF, LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WITH ONLY 2 TO
5 CM OF SNOW LIKELY IN EXTREME NORTHERN MANITOBA. FURTHER SOUTH,
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. RDPS PROG SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
A SHALLOW AFL OVER EAST-CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT MONDAY, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR.

WESTERN/CENTRAL ARCTIC ... NO SIG WX. WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.

HIGH ARCTIC ... AN EASTERLY FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME OCCAISIONAL GUSTINESS AT GRISE FIORD LATER TODAY, TONIGHT, AND
MONDAY.

EASTERN ARCTIC...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER KIVALLIQ TODAY AS A TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL COMMUNITIES ON BAFFIN ISLAND AND KIVALLIQ
REGION.

END/MOODIE/BATE