FXAK67 PAJK 302341 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 241 PM AKST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SHORT TERM...At mid-levels of the atmosphere, a closed low near the southern edge of the Gulf of Alaska persists through mid-week with a digging trough extending southward towards upper 20s North Latitude west along 140 West Longitude (west of northern California). A short wave will be rotating northward and through the southern panhandle impacting the weather at the surface. Rain and snow are the main forecast with the variation of their spread of them. Temperatures range between the low 30s to nearly 40 degrees in the daytime, so there is a line of snow to mix then mixed to rain occurring overnight and into Tuesday. The surface low will persist in place through Wednesday night before falling apart to a trough of lower pressure from stronger centers south of 40 North. The best chances of precipitation continue to be across the southern half of the panhandle. After the front, the northern panhandle has lower pops and starting to dry out the forecast. Expect an increase in the outflow winds over Northern Lynn Canal headed into Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Active weather continues through the long term as an area of low pressure develops over the Gulf. This area of low pressure is projected to remain over the Gulf through late week, streaming multiple waves of precip through the panhandle. For now, no one passing wave looks too significant through the mid week, with each one bringing some minor wind and precipitation. Temperatures aloft, gradually cool through the week and thickness levels become more favorable for precipitation to fall as snow across the northcentral Panhandle. At the surface, temperatures look to remain marginal, near freezing, through the mid week, but by late week, temperatures look to cool below freezing across the northern and central panhandle before once again rising back into the upper 30s for the weekend. Late Thursday into Friday, there is a potential for a slightly stronger low to develop along the southern Gulf Coast. Confidence has not improved on this system as deterministic guidance still struggles to place the surface low. For today's forecast update, increased winds across the south on Thursday, but avoided going with the stronger model solution. This system could bring some enhanced precipitation across the central and southern panhandle as well. Although confidence is lower on timing and track, there is an increasing potential for a period of heavier precipitation and wind Thursday. With the more southerly track of the low, north to northeast flow will allow for more favorable conditions for snow accumulations across the northcentral panhandle. Across the south, rain and wind will be more likely. Overall, snow accumulations look less than Advisory amounts, but will continue to monitor the potential as the areas of heavy precipitation is likely to shift closer to the time of the event. By the weekend, another system moves into the southern panhandle Saturday but the main plume of moisture looks to stay further south with this one. Sunday, a brief surface ridge looks to develop, allowing for a quick drying period before a more organized low and associated front moves through the panhandle early next week. && .AVIATION...IFR to MVFR conditions prevail over the Panhandle currently. Conditions are expected to remain low overnight for the south while the north could see slightly improving conditions as precip focuses more on the southern panhandle. Winds are expected to increase slightly overnight for the south as the next wave approaches the Panhandle. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-041>043-051. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....CC AVIATION...BFL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau