FXAK67 PAJK 241515 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
454 AM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Lingering showers slowly give way through Wednesday
as a weak low departs into British Columbia. While chances for
showers will linger into the overnight time frame for the southern
panhandle, by Thursday, don't expect anything beyond a few
isolated showers. Fog will dissipate through the morning hours on
Wednesday, but may redevelop Wednesday night, especially across
the southern half of the area. Winds will stay on the lower side,
though a few areas could see 15 kt winds, expect many locations 
to remain in the 5 to 10 kt range.

Only minimal changes were made to the forecast. Adjusted wind
directions and a few wind speeds for the outer coastal waters and
the inner channels in order to better reflect the arrival of a
ridge across the Gulf of AK. Think that the chance for a shower or
two as far N as Juneau does exist through the day, and so extended
chances of precip further N, along with holding lingering chances
of precip in the S panhandle later into the night on Wednesday. 
Made some adjustments to lower temperatures for the overnight time
period Wednesday night, especially for the northern half of the 
area. Think that there is some potential for temperatures in areas
with clearer skies on Wednesday to go a bit above the current 
forecast, but this will be heavily dependent on how much upper 
level cloud cover remains in place. 

.LONG TERM...Thursday a ridge will be building across the 
interior of Alaska, with zonal flow over the northern Pacific. 
These features will help block active weather from moving into the
region, bringing dry conditions and light winds to the end of the
week. Upstream of the ridge in the Bering Sea, a closed low will 
dig into the Gulf of Alaska early Friday morning, making a beeline
for Haida Gwaii. As this feature ejects towards the archipelago, 
surface pressure will fall in the Gulf Saturday, with ensembles 
indicating a 998mb low and southeasterly 22-28 knot winds into the
central Gulf and coastal waters. While there is uncertainty in 
the exact location and orientation of this feature, we will likely
see elevated east winds out of Cross Sound and other east-to-west
orientated passageways into Sunday, along with 25-30 knot 
southerly winds in Dixon Entrance and Hecate Strait, perhaps as 
far north as southern Clarence Strait. 

Regarding precipitation, a desiccant pattern continues for the 
future as our systems undergo cyclogenesis in dry regions and fail
to steer ample tropical moisture into the Panhandle. Current IVT 
guidance suggests Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon will 
see some rainfall for the central and southern region, but amounts
and rates fall below climate normal. One item to note is the 
central and southern Panhandle is now marked under a D0 Drought 
Intensity (meaning abnormally dry). Temperatures continue to trend
warmer across the Panhandle, with the south reaching into the 
upper 50s by Friday.

Extended period for the late weekend and beyond is still looking
rather damp as a new low moves E across the southern gulf.
Southern panhandle again will be the favored areas for rainfall,
but some could reach as far north as Skagway and Cape Fairweather.
Conditions start to dry again toward mid next week as more 
easterly flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and MVFR conditions across the northern panhandle,
as a high cloud ceiling occasionally moves overhead. MVFR with
occasional IFR conditions likely for the southern panhandle and
near the coastal mountains alongside fog in the morning hours on 
Wednesday for some locations. The fog will dissipate through the 
morning and cloud ceilings improve through the afternoon and 
overnight timeframe. While some fog may redevelop Wednesday night,
particularly in the S panhandle, expect widespread VFR conditions
after it dissipates Thursday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....AP/EAL 
AVIATION...PRB/GFS

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