FXAK69 PAFG 282304 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 204 PM AKST Sat Jan 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern continues over Northern Alaska with a very large amplitude ridge parked over the Northern Pacific and extending north over Alaska and to near the North Pole. Several shortwave moving north along the ridge will provide periods of snow, freezing rain and gusty winds over the West Coast, the Western and Central Interior as well as the Central Alaska Range and the Western Brooks Range and Western Arctic Coast. && .DISCUSSION... Models... The 28/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface analysis and the 12z upper air observations. The 12z model suite also verified well against the 18z surface analysis as well as a a 18z sounding at PAFA launched for mixed precipitation potential. There remains considerable spread on the position of a front that is expected to stall over the Southern Interior with significant differences on the amount of snowfall and the location of the snowfall as well as the potential for freezing rain and the locations for potential freezing rain. The GFS model ultimately verified best against the special 18z sounding and has verified best at least locally in the Alaksa Interior for the past several model runs and was leaned on heavily for snowfall potential and location of that snowfall over the Southern Interior as well as potential for and location for mixed precipitation over the Southern Interior. Upper Levels and Analysis... a high amplitude ridge anchored by a 580 dam high pressure ridge over the Northern Pacific extend north over Alaska to near the North Pole. Several shortwaves are pushing north along the West Coast of Alaska with the first near Kotzebue Sound and a stronger wave now over the Aleutians. The wave over Kotzebue Sound will continue to weaken as it moves north over the Western Arctic Coast tonight and into the Arctic Ocean on Sunday. A surge of warm air will move north along the Coast and inland over the Western Interior as this next wave moves north on Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for mixed precipitation for portions of the YK Delta and Upper Kuskokwim Valley for mixed precipitation for Sunday into Monday. Snow is also expected in the Central and Eastern Interior mainly south of the Yukon River beginning Sunday and continuing into Tuesday afternoon as a front stalls just north of Fairbanks. Expect storm total snowfall through Tuesday afternoon of 4 to 7 inches north of Fairbanks with 3 to 5 inches in the Fairbanks areas and 2 to 4 inches in the North Pole areas. Generally less than 2 inches is expected south of Nenana and Delta Junction. There is a slight risk of freezing rain mixing in with the snow south of Nenana along the Parks Highway Sunday morning. The next front approaches the West Coast by Tuesday with another round of precipitation and gusty winds. West Coast and Western Interior...Snow and blowing snow in the Kotzebue Sound region will continue into the evening before diminishing tonight. Light freezing rain has mixed with the snow along the coast at times but is expected to diminish later this evening as this system pushes north over the Brooks Range. The next in a series of fronts moves north across the area on Sunday. Expect cloudy conditions with periods of snow, and occasionally gusty winds with freezing rain expected to mix in south of a Unalakleet to Galena line with all snow to the north of that line. Expect generally less than 3 inches of accumulation. High temperatures today will be in the teens to lower 30s above. Low temperatures tonight will range from single digits above to the mid 20s. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range... As the 1038 high pressure system north of the coast continues to weaken the gusty winds along and near the northern foothills of the Brooks Range continue to diminish improving visibility in the area as blowing snow diminishes. A front moving north over the area will produce light snow over the coastal areas. High temperatures today will range from the single digits above to the teens above. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 10 above to the single digits below. Central and Eastern Interior... A front moving into the Interior will stall just north of Fairbanks Sunday morning and will continue in place into Tuesday afternoon. Snow is expected to develop Sunday morning and will continue into Tuesday afternoon with the heaviest snowfall expected to fall in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks. Storm total snowfall of 4 to 7 inches is expected in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks with 3 to 5 inches expected in the Fairbanks area through Tuesday afternoon. 2 to 4 inches is expected in the North Pole area with 1 to 2 inches expected in the Delta Junction, Nenana, Healy and Denali Park areas. There is a slight chance that freezing rain may mix with the snow at times along the Parks Highway south of Nenana on Sunday morning. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$