FXAK69 PAFG 032204
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Another night and day of very warm temperatures in the
Interior and in the coastal areas with offshore flow. Increasing
chance of showers Thursday mainly from Fairbanks south and west
with increased clouds and cooling temperatures across the area.
No change in the Arctic with east to northeast winds bringing
onshore flow from Utqiagvik east and offshore flow to the west. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...03/12Z solutions have been handling the building ridge
well, like the usually do, and solutions are in good agreement 
through the short term. Surface solutions initialized well 
against local 03/15Z analysis. Moving into the midrange a much
more troughy pattern develops and am favoring the ECMWF as it
keeps the trough a little further to the west. Not a lot of
significant weather around the area, so not making many changes to
the forecast other than a few tweaks on the temperatures, and the
winds. Run to run continuity has been good in the precipitation
grids, so other than increasing the probabilities a little, will 
not make many changes there either. 

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A strong closed 582 dam high has parked over
the Upper Kobuk Basin this afternoon with ridging extending
northwest into the Siberian Arctic, south over King Salmon, and
east over the Northern Yukon Territory. A 539 dam low is in the 
high Arctic, a 540 dam low near the Kamchatka Peninsula, a 555 dam
low in the Northeast Pacific, and a 572 dam low over the Central 
Yukon Territory with a weak shortwave moving over the AlCan 
Border. Wednesday afternoon the high will be over the Western
Brooks Range at 578 dam as it is starting to be squeezed, with
ridging to the northwest across the Siberian Arctic, south over
the Eastern Alaska Peninsula, and southeast over the Central Yukon 
Territory. The low in the high Arctic will move to 600 nm north of
Demarcation point at 542 dam, while the low to the west will move
to the Dateline near 60N at 534 dam, with a shortwave extending
over St Matthew Island to Nunivak Island to Cold Bay, putting the
squeeze on the ridge. The low in the Northeast Pacific will move 
to 300 nm south of Yakutat, with a shortwave extending north over
the Southern Interior, and the low that was over the Yukon 
Territory will merge with toughing over the Northwest Territories.
By Thursday afternoon the high is squeezed out to the northwest 
leaving weak ridging over the Western Brooks Range extending 
southeast to a 571 dam high that will develop over the Tok Cutoff.
The low in the Arctic will continue to dive southeast to be over 
the Coast of Banks Island at 536 dam, while the low near the 
Dateline will rotate back toward the Kamchatka Peninsula as a 
trough swings around it and a 555 dam low develops over the 
Pribilofs. The low to the south will move east near Dixon 
Entrance. At 850 hpa...Dome of +10C or warmer over the forecast 
area today, with temperatures in the mid teens above over most of
the inland areas. The warm temperatures will hang on through
Thursday, then slowly erode pull back into Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Surface...A 1027 mb high has moved to 150 nm north of Kaktovik
today with high pressure extending southeast into the Northwest
Territories, northwest into the Siberian Arctic, southwest to 
Norton Sound, and south into the Central and Eastern Interior.  A
weak trough of low pressure has pushed up into the Southeast 
Interior with a 1009 mb low near the AlCan Border Crossing. Low 
pressure also remains west of the mainland with a 996 mb low south
of the Pribilofs. A decaying front lies from the the Western Gulf
of Anadyr to Sand Point as it continues to stretch out and fall
apart. By Wednesday afternoon the high in the Arctic will be in
MacKenzie Bay at 1020 mb with high pressure extending west over 
the Arctic Coast to Wrangel Island, and southwest into the 
Interior north of the Alaska Range and into the Middle Yukon 
Valley. Low pressure will extend southeast from a 984 mb low near
60N and the Dateline across the southwest mainland to a 1002 mb
low 300 nm south of Yakutat. Low pressure will also dig southwest 
over the Beaufort Sea from a low north of the Canadian
Archipelago.  

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and areas of fog will
prevail as east/onshore winds continue. The Northwest Arctic 
Coast south of Wainwright will get a reprieve as the flow will be
offshore, so higher clouds and less cloudy. Some of the warmest
temperatures of the year for Northwest Arctic Coast as highs push
into the 60s and lower 70s. Onshore flow will keep temperatures in
the 50s from Wainwright east along the coast. Inland temperatures
will push into the 70s this evening and Wednesday. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s for most areas. Winds will be
out of the northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph, locally up to 20 mph
on Wednesday. 

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear accept on the Lower
Yukon Delta Coast where the decaying front in the Bering Sea
continues to spread some clouds into the area. Some of the warmest
temperatures of the year today and Wednesday with northeast to
east offshore flow. Inland areas warming into the upper 70s to
upper 80s and with the offshore flow that warm air will be pushed
into the coastal areas with highs jumping into the 70s, while
overnight lows will also be quite warm as they only cool into the
50s to lower 60s. Winds 5 to 15 mph tonight, then locally up to 20
mph on Wednesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Hot and dry tonight and Wednesday
before we start cooling down. Fires will ramp up activity during
the day so some smoke will be wafting around the interior. 
Generally high clouds so no impact to the temperatures as they 
rise into the 80s across much of the Interior. Increasing chance 
of thunderstorms by Thursday in the Southwest Interior and along 
the north slopes of the Alaska Range. The increased cloudiness 
will help cool temperatures back toward climatological normals. 
Mainly northeast to east winds to 10 mph. Overnight lows will 
remain quite warm for a couple more days as they only fall into 
the upper 50s to around 60 in many locations. 

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The latest version of summer 
will lose its grip and cloudier cooler days are ahead with 
increased chance of showers Friday through the weekend in the
Interior. More showers for the West Coast, and not much change for
the Arctic with low clouds and patchy fog.

&&

.Fire Weather...Warm temperatures will continue into Thursday 
when a front will bring increasing chance of Thunderstorms to the 
southwest Interior and along the north slopes of the Alaska Range.
Temperatures remain warm across the area from the Fortymile 
Country to the Middle Yukon River Valley. Winds northeast to east 
at 5 to 15 mph for most locations, and increasing to 20 mph for a 
few locations north of Fairbanks Wednesday.

&&

.Hydrology...Water levels continue to run high at Allakaket, so 
use caution around the river. The remainder of the area has seen 
the water levels fall overnight and through the day, so there are 
no Advisories of Watches in effect. With no significant rainfall 
in the forecast river levels will continue to fall. For the latest
river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 21