FXCN01 CWHF 100807

PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0000Z 10 MAY TO 1200Z 11 MAY.

SFC COMMENTARY: AS ANALYZED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LIGHT-TO-MODERATE NORTH THEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE HALIFAX REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
GIVES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. PARTIAL CLEARING
OF CLOUD SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH,
BUT CONSEQUENTLY SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND MIST WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AROUND THE HARBOUR AND BASIN DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE.

LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION VALID: 12 MAY THRU 14 MAY.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE NUMERICAL
MODELLING COMMUNITY WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND
EVOLUTION OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
CERTAINLY A CHANCE OF RAINFALL DUE TO A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM FLIRTING
WITH NOVA SCOTIA, BUT A CONFIDENT DETERMINATION CANNOT YET BE MADE
FOR LOCAL HALIFAX WATERS AS THE RAIN SYSTEM COULD END UP SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO LOCAL INTERESTS.

GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO BE LESS IMPACTFUL FOR THE HALIFAX
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE REGION SHOULD FIND ITSELF
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OR
MODERATE SEA BREEZES ON EACH OF THE TWO DAYS. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKE THE BEST REPRESENTATION FOR MONDAY BEFORE A
TRAIN OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND
GIVES INCREASING CLOUDINESS TO HALIFAX, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.


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