FXUS24 KWNC 111307
PMDENS
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EST Thu 11 Apr 2024

NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on
the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory / La Nina Watch

Synopsis: A transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral is likely
by April-June 2024 (85percent chance), with the odds of La
Nina developing by June-August 2024 (60percent chance).

During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean
(Fig. 1), with the latest weekly Nino-1+2 value at -0.1degC
(Fig. 2). Weekly SST index values in the other Nino regions
were between +0.9degC and +1.2degC. Below-average subsurface
temperatures strengthened (area-averaged index in Fig. 3),
reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies
associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Low-level
wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial
Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near
average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around
the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia (Fig. 5).
Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected
the continued weakening of El Nino.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral
during spring 2024, with La Nina potentially developing during
late summer 2024 (Fig. 6). The forecast team continues to
favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more
accurate than statistical models during this time of year.
La Nina tends to follow strong El Nino events, which also
provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La
Nina. In summary, a transition from El Nino to ENSO-neutral
is likely by April-June 2024 (85percent chance), with the odds
of La Nina developing by June-August 2024 (60percent chance;
Fig. 7).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction
Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert
Discussions). Additional perspectives and analyses are also
available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast
is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is
scheduled for 9 May 2024. To receive an e-mail notification when
the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please
send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.



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