FXUS61 KAKQ 262334 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 734 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop across the region tonight into Memorial Day before return back north of the area on Tuesday, followed by a big warm up for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Latest MSAS has a cold front across PA/Ohio with a sfc trof just west of the Ches Bay. First round of pulse tstrms has diminished across the local area with svrl reports of trees down and marginal hail over the past svrl hrs. See LSRAKQ for details. Next will be the convective complex along and ahead of the apprchg cold front later this eve thru the pre-dawn hrs. Latest high res data has the nrn zones/ern shore getting the better organized storms with little activity across the far south. PoPs highest across the ern shore where the best support for anything organized will be. Otw, sct convection with the fropa. SPC continues to have the nrn half of the fa in slight risk with a marginal risk down to the VA/NC border. Threats continue to be large hail/damaging wind gusts. Would also expect a good deal of lightning as well. Lows in te upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... The front will drop farther south of the area during Mon, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Not quite as warm in onshore flow. Mainly just a slight to low end chance for showers/tstms. Highs on Mon will range thru the 80s to near 90, cooler near the water. The warm front will lift back north acrs the area Mon night into Tue morning. Upper ridging will remain anchored over the southeast with sfc ridge setting up offshore. Remaining warm and moderately humid. Partly sunny and a bit warmer once again. Maintained a slight chc for mainly diurnally-driven thunderstorms along the eastern third of the area on Tuesday. Warmest day of the next week looks to be Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Big story in the extended will be continued very warm to hot conditions across the region. An upper level ridge remains in control at the start of the forecast period, amplifying across the region on Wednesday. With W-SW to SW downsloping flow during the day and 850mb temps in the 20-23C range, expect temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across much of the area on Wednesday. Temperatures may even touch 100 degrees, especially across far southern portions of the FA. Our one saving grace is that decent mixing in low levels should keep apparent temps near air temperatures. Thus, still don't expect heat indices to be much of a factor. Warm and dry Wed...but will maintain slight chc pop for now for a stray shower or storm given strong heating. But given strong downslope and no apparent convective trigger, would expect coverage to be low at best. Low temperatures on Wednesday night only drop into the low to mid 70s. By Thursday, the upper level ridge axis begins to break down/push east of the local area as a more potent shortwave develops and moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Thursday will likely be another very hot day with temperatures making it up into the mid 90s across much of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase as the shortwave and associated cold front approach and cross the region late Thursday into early Friday. This boundary then stalls/lingers near to just south of the region into the weekend bringing the potential for more unsettled conditions. Temperatures cool down slightly Friday into the weekend, but are still expected to remain above average as highs in the mid to upper 80s are anticipated. && .AVIATION /00 MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Latest MSAS has a cold front across PA/Ohio with a sfc trof just west of the Ches Bay. First round of storms which were near RIC/SBY over the past few hrs have dissipated. VFR conditions to start off the forecast period even at RIC where one of those storms occurred. Next will be the convective complex along and ahead of the apprchg cold front later this eve thru the pre-dawn hrs. Latest high res data has the nrn zones/ern shore getting the better organized storms with little activity across the far south. Went ahead and included VCTS at RIC btwn 03Z-06Z given the latest high res data model. SBY has the best chc of seeing organized convection btwn 02Z-06Z with confidence high enough to include a TEMPO group for tstms there. Expect MVFR CIGS in any tstm with vsbys dropping aob 2SM in lclly heavy downpours. Winds variable blo 10 KTS ahead of the front, shifting to the N-NE Monday behind the fropa. Outlook: VFR conditions continue thru Tue, although conditions may briefly drop to MVFR in any shwr or tstm. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Mostly quiet across the marine area this afternoon with generally light and variable winds (5-10 knots). Waves ~1 ft in the bay and seas 2-3 ft offshore. There remains a chance for showers and storms to drop east and southeast late this afternoon into the overnight hours with strong winds being the main marine hazard. Winds will become southeasterly this evening ~10 knots as compact low pressure approaches from the NW. A weak cold front will follow this low, allowing winds to become NW ~10 knots late tonight. Winds swing around to the NE on Monday and then S 10-15 knots by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure aloft remains anchored over northern Gulf Coast. Waves in the bay will generally run 1-2 ft while seas offshore will stay in the 2-4 ft range through mid week. && .CLIMATE... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... * Records for Today/Sun 5/26: * Richmond: 94 (1991) (Record high min 70 in 2011) * Norfolk: 98 (1880) (Record high min 74 in 2011) * Salisbury: 92 (2011) (Record high min 69 in 1984) * Eliz City: 95 (1953) (Record high min 74 in 2011) * Number of Days of 90F+ in May: * Site Avg 2019 (thru 5/25) Most (Year) * Richmond: 2 days 3 days 11 days (1962) * Norfolk: 2 days 2 days 13 days (1880) * Salisbury: 1 day none so far 7 days (1991) * Eliz City: 2 days 4 days 9 days (1944) && .EQUIPMENT... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... KAKQ 88D radar has return to normal operations. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MAM/TMG LONG TERM...ALB/MAM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB/RHR CLIMATE...AKQ