FXUS61 KAKQ 310255 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS... The pattern will remain unsettled the rest of this week, as several additional waves of low pressure bring the chance for more precipitation to the area. A strong area of arctic high pressure will build south for the end of the week and weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 950 PM EST Monday... High pressure is centered from the Deep South across the Carolina coastal plain and to the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening. Fog (locally dense) is developing in vicinity of the surface ridge axis across southern/southeast VA and NE NC. Mild with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s for most of the area, and cooler across the Eastern Shore with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Fog is expected to become more widespread overnight into Tuesday morning, with areas of dense fog expected to develop. An SPS has been issued for now to highlight developing fog, but a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight. Low temperatures range from the upper 30s/around 40F NE to the mid/upper 40s elsewhere. A cold front will be dropping south across the area on Tuesday as a weak wave of low pressure tracks east over the area. Light rain will likely spread in from the west by mid-morning as the front moves in. Temperatures will fall once the front moves through. For much of the area, temperatures will fall from the 40s in the morning to the 30s by the afternoon. Not expecting any wintry weather Tuesday afternoon or evening. Temperatures will remain in the mid 30s through sunset. Closer to the NC/VA border, temperatures will climb into the 50s before the front moves in tomorrow afternoon. Rain totals are expected to be under 0.25" through Tuesday evening. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Monday... Several rounds of mainly light precip is expected Tuesday night through Thursday. Chance for precip continue into Tuesday night as temperatures continue to fall behind the cold front. There is the chance that rain will change over to snow across central VA and southeast MD overnight. If that happens, there will be little accumulation, mainly a coating of snow. Temperatures in areas that may change over to snow will remain around 32F overnight. Farther south across southern VA and northeast NC, only rain is expected with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will rise above freezing across the northern portions of the area by mid morning and another round of precip moves in for Wednesday. Snow is possible early Wednesday morning across central VA and southeast MD before temps rise into the mid to upper 30s. For the entire area, Pops on Wednesday will start at 80-90% then decrease to 15-30% by the afternoon. Still a cold day with highs around 40F areawide. Expecting mostly dry conditions Wednesday night with temperatures falling into the mid 20s to low 30s. The final wave of precip for the week will move in Thursday morning. Temperatures may be below freezing as the precip moves in from the southwest. Therefore, there will be a chance for another round of wintry weather Thursday morning. There may be a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain early Thursday before temperatures warm above freeze by the late morning and become all rain. High temperatures are expected to be in the 40s on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Monday... Dry and cool conditions on Friday ahead of an arctic airmass. High temperatures will be in the 40s Friday afternoon after lows in the 20s and 30s. Arctic air is expected to move in Friday night as a strong area of high pressure (~1045) is forecasted to drop south from Canada. For much of the area, low temperatures Saturday morning will be in the middle teen, low 20s for Hampton Roads. High temperatures will struggle to reach freezing on Saturday. Breezy conditions are also possible with wind chills as low as the single digits, and possible below zero across the MD Eastern Shore. The high pressure that will bring the arctic air in will quickly move off the coast by Sunday with temperatures quickly warming by Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 700 PM EST Monday... Weak high pressure is centered over the Deep South as of 00z, with a surface ridge axis extending NE across the Carolina coastal plain and toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is very light. An area of stratus over s-central VA and NE NC is eroding this evening, and this should allow fog to develop this evening over these locations with weak flow and low-level moisture. Cigs are currently MVFR at ECG, with VFR conditions elsewhere under FEW-SCT mid-level clouds. IFR conditions are expected to develop at ECG from 00-02z, 04-06z at SBY/ORF/PHF, with mainly VFR conditions at RIC. LIFR conditions are expected to develop overnight into early Tuesday morning, with locally dense fog at ECG/ORF/PHF. A cold front slides across the area later Tuesday morning with the wind shifting to NE and vsby improving. However, light rain is expected to develop in the aftn, with IFR cigs continuing (or developing in the case of RIC). A rather prolonged period of flight restrictions is possible (MVFR/IFR CIGS) Tuesday night through Thursday as a series of disturbances track through the mid-Atlantic the region. Drier and VFR conditions Friday as a strong cold front moves through the area, with strong high pressure building into the region Saturday. Breezy Friday into Saturday (especially along the coast). && .MARINE... As of 955 PM EST Monday... A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for portions of the lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters south of Parramore Island until 10 AM Tuesday. The Advisory will likely need to be expanded further as the night goes on. Previous Discussion: High pressure remains over the area through much of tonight with light and variable winds this afternoon (<5 kt) becoming SW 5-10 kt tonight. Given the light winds, marine fog will be possible tonight. A cold front pushes S over the local waters Tues morning into Tues afternoon with winds becoming N 14-17 kt behind the front. A brief period of gusts to ~18-20 kt is possible across the Ches Bay from late morning into early afternoon Tues. However, confidence in sustained or frequent gusts 18+ kt for several hours is too low to issue SCAs at this time. Will continue to monitor trends in the model data and reevaluated tonight. NE winds diminish to 10-15 kt Tues evening before a secondary CAA surge arrives late Tues night into early Wed afternoon with N winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. SCAs will likely be needed for this surge. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt by late Wed afternoon as high pressure builds in from the N. Several disturbances move across the area this week allowing for off and on chances for light rain. A wintry mix will be possible across the N waters Tues night into Wed morning and across the VA/MD waters Wed night into early Thurs morning. A strong area of high pressure moves into the Northeast Fri-Sun morning. This will push a strong cold front with CAA over the local waters late Thurs night-Fri. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt will be possible with this surge before winds drop below SCA criteria Sat afternoon. SCAs will be needed. Waves and seas were 1 foot and ~2 ft this afternoon. Seas build to 2- 3 ft tonight, building to 3-4 ft Tues afternoon through Wed night. A period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the S coastal waters Wed with SCAs possibly being needed. Waves build to 2-3 ft behind the cold front Tues afternoon. Seas of 4-7 ft (highest across the S coastal waters) will be possible Fri afternoon into Sat evening. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ632>634-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...AJZ/CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...AJB/RMM