FXUS61 KBGM 102127 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 527 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain will continue through this evening, before winding down overnight with patchy fog formation likely tonight with skies staying mostly cloudy. Saturday will start off mostly dry but rain will move in from the west once again. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 520 pm update... Mostly upped pops and cloud cover to better represent current conditions and trends. Clouds will be slower to leave tonight everywhere with showers hanging on into the overnight in Oneida County. 230 PM update... Persistent rain will likely continue this afternoon into the early evening as a surface low slowly departs off of the Mid Atlantic coast. With some brief mid level ridging building in as well as a weak surface high, rain showers will become isolated and mostly limited to the higher terrain. Forecast soundings show some drying in the mid and upper levels as the ridge builds in but low level moisture hangs on. Given the steeper low level lapse rates in place, there is likely going to be enough mixing to get some pockets of clearing tonight. With the recent rain and high humidity, any clearing will result in fog formation. Tomorrow starts off dry but a shortwave dropping into the Great Lakes region keeps clouds around as well as increase the chances for precipitation later in the day. Given the very cold air at 500 mb, it wont take much heating to get instability so started chances of precipitation a few hours earlier than model guidance. Thunder is also possible in the afternoon and evening as the shortwave moves in. Forecast soundings have the EL of the surface cape reaching above -20c so that is just enough to get some lightning despite the colder temperatures. The shortwave will slow its progression as it moves into the northeast so chances of rain showers persist through tomorrow night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 115 PM update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next couple bouts of rain showers and some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The seasonably cooler air will remain in place on Sunday as a stacked low pressure system rotates eastward through the Northeast US. This system should have enough deep layer moisture (around a half inch PW), and sufficient synoptic forcing to trigger scattered rain showers across the region. The showers should be hit and miss for the most part. The other area of interest on Sunday will be the threat for pop-up thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft are expected to be quite cold (500 mb T around -25 deg C), which should trigger some isolated convection as the system moves through during the day Mother's Day. Severe weather is not expected. The only threat will be for cloud to ground lightning. Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the upper 50s to near 60, and overnight lows Sunday night will be chilly once again...falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s. The cool pattern will start to change on Monday as weak surface ridging and a wedge of deep dry air moves through the region. The cold air mass will shift to the east and warmer conditions will start to push in from the southwest. Surface temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 later in the day Monday with mostly sunny skies early in the day. A weak cold front will drop in from the northwest later in the day and allow cloud cover to increase, along with the chances for showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms as well. The increasing temperature and moisture in the boundary layer will allow more potential instability to be present Monday afternoon and early evening. The forcing along the front and the steep low and mid level lapse rates will lead to some convection scattered across the region. At this time it appears the threat for severe weather is very low. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 115 PM update... A weak cold front dropping south across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US will stall out Monday night into Tuesday and become quasi-stationary, basically WSW-ENE across the area through the day. The slow-moving nature of this front will keep the threat of rain across the region in place potentially all the way through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a minor threat of thunderstorms during the this time given the rich air mass south of the front and relatively strong upper level dynamics due to the presence of a couple upper level jet structure over NY and PA. This time period is still quite far out, but if this pattern holds, this could be something to pay close attention to Tue into Wed. Drier air starts to move in by Thursday along with a building upper level ridge of high pressure from the west. This pattern will allow conditions to dry out going into the latter half of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain has brought mostly MVFR conditions with BGM seeing some IFR being at higher elevation. Rain will persist into the evening with current restrictions likely not changing much. Tonight, it does look like there will be an attempt at the cigs scattering out but confidence is low that it will occur so kept MVFR cigs at terminals through the night. Since there will be at least a few clear spots between the clouds, fog will likely develop with uncertainty at how widespread it will be so kept the IFR vis in right now with potential for areas to fall to near a quarter mile tonight for places that actually scatter out. Tomorrow morning, the fog will mix out with clouds remaining as more rain moves in from the west towards 18Z. Outlook... Saturday through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC NEAR TERM...AJG/TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...AJG