FXUS61 KCAR 262205 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 605 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue east of the state this evening followed by a secondary cold front on Monday. High pressure will push into the area Monday night and crest over the region on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6 PM Update...A few thundershowers have popped up across the north mostly over central Aroostook county with some smaller convection elsewhere. These thundershowers will likely dissipate as they continue east over the cooler air where low stratus has lingered most of the day. Put isolated thundershowers in the forest early in the evening. Also adjusted temps down a bit over the north and warmer toward the southwest. A cold front will be pushing east across the New Brunswick border early this evening. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will be along the front early in the evening with the best chance for any thunder from east central areas on south to interior Downeast. This will be followed by some clearing overnight as high pressure begins to push in from the west. A chilly upper trough of low pressure sliding southeast into Quebec will pull a secondary cold front through on Monday, first across the north during the morning then reaching the Downeast coast late in the afternoon. A stray showers can't be ruled out with the front, especially in far western areas. However, the latest guidance is bringing the front through dry and only some spotty cumulus will be likely in most areas as the front presses through. Cooler and much drier air will filter into the area, especially over the north, following the frontal passage late on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak shortwave ridging builds in Monday night through at least Tuesday. As a result, the associated subsidence should keep things dry and allow for minimal cloud cover. the possible exception is along the Downeast Maine on Tuesday, where it might just be close enough to a shortwave trough passing to the southwest/south for a partly vice mostly sunny day. Lows Monday night should be around 10 degrees below normal, with decent radiational cooling conditions likely. Highs on Tuesday should be a few degrees below normal. Models then differ on the strength and timing of a northern stream ridge for Tuesday night/Wednesday that follows behind the shortwave ridging for Monday night/Tuesday. The GFS is the slowest, most amplified with this ridging, while the other models while faster/less amplified are trending towards the GFS. This ridging will be the key to the forecast Tuesday night/Wednesday, because its strength and timing will determine how far N or weak coastal low gets - and as a result how much over running is set up in the low levels over the region. For now think the 12Z ECMWF is a reasonable compromise, but cannot rule out the GFS idea ultimately winning out. As a result, have scaled back pops and cloud cover Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tuesday night is now mainly dry - with the best chance for any rain over Downeast Maine, where the best over running, if any of note happens, could occur given the overall pattern. For Wednesday, it appears the best chance for any rain will be during the morning (once again best chance over Downeast Maine), as over running should weaken in the afternoon with a weak surface low (a key part to the over running set up) tracking well to the S/SE. Lows Tuesday night and highs on Wednesday should be a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pres will slide off to the east Wednesday night allowing for a return to set up around the high. This will bring in llvl moisture on se winds. A warm front is forecast to lift n across the region later Wednesday night into early Thursday. The latest 12z ECWMF and Canadian Global are similar in showing a round of rain initially transitioning to showers by Thursday afternoon as the front lifts up across the region. The 12Z GFS is drier by at least 12 hrs. Attm, decided to take of blend including the ECMWF and Canadian showing the initial round of rain. There looks to be a brief break in the action Thursday afternoon and then another round of rain and possible tstms Thursday night as low pres moves up along the apchg cold front. WAA w/some slight cooling aloft could allow for enough instability to trigger embedded tstms. Confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast this far out. Therefore, decided on going w/rain Thursday night tapering to showers on Friday. If the this trend continues, the later shifts can introduce thunder into the extended forecast. Next weekend could start out dry on Saturday and then another shot for rain as the region stays under a broad upper trof. The ECMWF and a number of its ensembles show this broad upper trof in place. Temperatures, especially during the daytime look to be near or slightly below normal for late May. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will improve to VFR, first Downeast early this evening then across the north late in the evening. VFR conditions are then expected late tonight through Monday. SHORT TERM: VFR Monday night and Tuesday. MVFR or lower conditions are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance over Downeast Maine. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA tonight and Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds diminish Monday night to around 10 kt or less by midnight and remain fairly light through Wednesday. There is a chance for gusts to around 20 kt Wednesday afternoon on the coastal ocean waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Maloit Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Maloit Marine...Bloomer/Maloit