FXUS61 KCTP 250838 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 438 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... -Rain-free end to the week with low humidity & frost/freeze -Showers to start the last weekend of April; not a washout -Major warmup Sunday-Monday with summer-like temperatures && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IR satellite trends at 4AM/08UTC show low clouds holding firm and expanding in coverage over south central PA early this morning. Radar is even detecting some spotty light rain/dz to the southwest of State College. The clouds have been holding temps above the hourly fcst which casts serious doubt on frost/freeze potential in some locations. With the NPW headline expiring at 8AM, we will continue to monitor with reduced confidence in both sub freezing temps and frost formation early this morning. The latest hires model guidance and slower improving remote sensing observational/satellite trends suggest the sky cover fcst may not be high enough over the southern tier and will address this with the next forecast update. Outside of cloud trends, the only other potential concern today is fire wx given curing fuel moisture and low humidity this afternoon (see fire wx section for more info). Highest confidence in clearing tonight is over northern areas with renewed frost/freeze risk. We will continue to highlight this in the HWO and allow dayshift to coordinate/post headlines. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The sfc high strengthens to +2SD or ~1035mb as it drifts over interior New England to Long Island by 12Z Saturday. Rain free wx conditions will continue Friday with sun mixing with high clouds and max temps trending warmer into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Showers along a warm front are likely to move into the western Alleghenies Saturday morning based on the latest operational model/ens consensus. The rain will be moving into dry air which will help keep QPF amounts below 0.25 inch. The second half of the day Saturday into Saturday night looks increasingly drier as the warm front lifts to the north of the Keystone State. Max temp fcst is a little tricky with early day clouds and light rain falling into a retreating dry low level airmass favoring cooler solutions; while late day breaks of sun and milder southerly flow could push temps a bit higher than fcst. Series of higher nighttime lows continues through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Late evening update holds very few changes to the long term. Have kept the forecast very consistent with a very warm period coming up. Prev... The weekend appears somewhat unsettled, with a warm front arriving Saturday and warm sector struggling to overspread central PA. It won't be raining all the time, but a couple of showers are likely on Saturday with a t-storm possible on Sunday. Upper ridging should eventually win out by early next week, allowing for drier wx and much warmer temps with highs surging through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across the south on Sunday. The warmest day of the extended period will be Monday as temperatures soar into the 80s areawide. A bit humid as well with fcst Td around 60F. This could support overnight lows near record levels next week (near 60F). Precipitation will be tough to come by in the extended period without much gulf moisture sourcing. Decaying systems that bring severe weather to the Plains will struggle to stay together and 7-day precipitation forecasts show very little rainfall across southeast PA through the middle of next week with amounts only approaching 0.75" in northwest PA. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds across the western half of Central PA are slowly dissipating from north to south as much drier air is moving in. The back edge of the cloud deck is almost through BFD and will continue moving southward into the morning. JST will likely be the last location to see these low clouds move out, but they should see ceilings rise to VFR by 18Z. After that point, there is high confidence in VFR conditions persisting through the rest of the 06Z TAF period as the area will remain under high pressure. Outlook... Thu Night-Fri...Predominantly VFR conds under high pressure. Fri night-Sat...Patchy rain developing from west to east. Sun...Isold SHRA/TSRA possible. Mon...Predominantly VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... With fuel moisture potentially falling below 10% over the next two days, there could be an elevated risk of wildfire spread during the afternoons across portions of central Pennsylvania. The dayshift will coordinate with PABOF/DCNR partners on the possible issuance of a SPS to highlight fire wx risk. MinRH this afternoon (Thu) is forecast to drop to 15-25% over the northern half of the area with potential downside to 10%. MinRH over the southern tier districts along the MD line is forecast between 30-40%. The wind will <10 mph from the north/northeast. MinRH is forecast to recover a bit Friday afternoon bottoming in the 25-40% range. However, the wind will increase from the south southeast with gusts to 20 mph at times over the higher terrain along the southern Allegheny Plateau. Increasing low level moisture/dewpoints along with some rain will limit fire weather concerns this weekend. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-005-010- 011-017>019-045-046-049>053. Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ024>028-056- 057-059. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Banghoff/Evanego AVIATION...Bauco FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl