FXUS61 KMHX 082033
AFDMHZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH EARLY 
SATURDAY LEADING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO 
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
THEN PUSH S OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED 
TO RIDE NE ALONG THE FRONT AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH MAINLY A TEMP AND PSBL PATCHY FOG 
FORECAST...AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FROM THE 
APPALACHAINS BEHIND OUR RECENT WEAK FRONT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY 
AIR JUST UPSTREAM AND EXPECT THIS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO MOVE 
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AROUND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECTING 
DIMINISHING DIURNAL CLOUDS THRU EVENING AND LIGHT NLY FLOW GRADUALLY 
DECOUPLING SOME SPOTS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT 
WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF 
GOING NEAR THE COOLER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SLIGHTLY 
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE INLAND PER THIS PATTERN (NEAR 60 FOR INLAND 
COOL SPOTS TO L70S OBX). THIS PATTERN ALSO WOULD INCREASE FOG 
PROBABILITIES...BUT GIVEN A DECENT T/TD SPREAD AM UNEASY WITH 
HITTING THE FOG TOO HARD SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL 
LET EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE. 
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...OVERALL NOT A 
BAD WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE 
OPPRESSIVE HEAT EARLIER THIS WEEK...DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE MID TO UPR TROUGHING OVER THE EAST 
COAST. WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
AREA LIKELY LEADING TO SEA BREEZE FORMATION TOMORROW...HAVE KEPT ISO 
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT EXPECTING COVERATE TO BE MINIMAL. SIMILAR 
SITUATION ON SUN...BUT EXTENDED THE SCHC POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
PERIOD ON SUN WITH DEEPENING MID TO UPR CYCLONE MOVING E FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NE STATES WHICH WILL INCREASE THE 
LIKELIHOOD FOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. 
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO NEAR FROM THE NW WHICH 
WOULD INCREASE SUPPORT FOR POPS SUN NITE. WENT CHC ON MON ESP NEAR 
COAST WITH LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPR TROUGH SWINGING INTO 
AREA. 
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO START IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK 
SHORT WAVE MID LVL RIDGING BUILDING (OR AT LEAST A FLATTER UPR 
TROUGH)...AND A WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS AND 
ASSOCIATED DRIER MID LVL AIR SHOULD SUPRESS CONVECTION FROM BECOMING 
TOO EXTENSIVE MON NITE/EARLY TUE...SO CAPPED POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE 
THEN. BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFY PULLING PRECIP ALL TOGETHER PER CLIMO. 
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH 
THE SE STATES TUE AND WED WILL ALLOW A SFC LOW TO MOVE UP THE SE 
COAST DURING WED. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED CHC POPS THEN. COULD BE SOME 
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THU BUT KEPT LOW END CHC POPS DURING 
AFTN/EVENING THEN TAPER OFF TO SCHC OVERNIGHT PER CLIMO. SIMILAR 
CLIMO AIDED FORECAST FOR FRI. TEMPS LOOK NEAR NORMAL THRU THE 
PERIOD. 
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR/MOSTLY CLR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING THEN EXPECT A 
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. VFR ON SAT WITH DIURNAL CU AND ISOLD 
TSTMS PSBL IN AFTN. 
VFR EXPECTED MOST OF SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS 
MORE LIKELY WED WITH SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS TO S. 
&&
.MARINE...
FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH ALL WINDS AROUND TO 
N-NE EXCEPT CAME BACK AROUND TO S-SW AT 41035 5 E OF NEW RIVER INLET 
DUE TO WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWING SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOPE. MODELS 
GENERALLY AGREE ON WINDS BECOMING LGT/VRBL THIS EVENING...THEN 
SECONDARY SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO 
BUILD IN FROM NW. HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS AREA SAT AND 
OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN TO SW BY EARLY SUNDAY. 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN 
BUT WENT WITH WEAKER GFS KEEPING WINDS BELOW 20 KTS. FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN STALL TO S TUE. LOW PRES WILL 
DEVELOP ALONG BNDRY AND MOVE ACROSS S OF AREA WED. MODELS UNCERTAIN 
ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW THIS FAR OUT SO WENT WITH MODERATE HPC 
SOLUTION FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME. 
SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET WITH STRONGER SW WINDS SUN 
NIGHT...OTRW 3 FEET OR LESS MOST OF PERIOD. 
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM