FXUS61 KOKX 090734 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 334 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will be nearby today into tonight. High pressure will otherwise be in control through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper trough will be over the Northeast today with shortwave lift approaching late in the day, shifting through the forecast area tonight. Some mid level moisture will accompany these features, and this combination may produce an isolated shower or sprinkle in spots north of the city from late day into the first half of tonight. Seasonable high temperatures of 75-80 across the area. NBM with a few local adjustments was used for low temps. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Heights slowly rise aloft, allowing for surface high pressure to gradually build into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. The center of this system then shifts through on Wednesday. Sunny for Tuesday with highs a degree or two warmer than today. Good radiational cooling conditions then set up for at least part of Tuesday night. There may be cirrus sneaking in overnight, but with a clear start and light to calm winds, thinking that temperatures will still manage to drop into the mid-upper 40s across the northernmost zones and Pine Barrens region. Lows otherwise around 60 for the city, with 50s elsewhere. Mostly sunny for Wednesday with perhaps some cirrus still around mainly in the morning. High temperatures similar to Tuesday's. As for lows, some uncertainty regarding how much cirrus can reenter the picture. Have therefore gone close to NBM for the areas that typically experience stronger radiational cooling rather than blending in cooler MOS guidance. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The period should feature an extended period of warm, dry weather underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will be slow to move as the westerlies become shunted well north into Canada. Temps should reach the lower 80s on Thu, with widespread lower/mid 80s and perhaps a few upper 80s readings in the urban corridor of NE NJ on Fri-Sat. Low temps generally fall back into the 60s along the coast, and 50s across the interior. As we go into the weekend, a light onshore flow may result in some hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog each late night and early morning as temps fall to around or below the previous afternoon's min dewpoints. River valley fog is also likely as well. Temps on Sunday may be a touch less warm as heights aloft fall across the area and across New England in response to an upper trough digging SE across Atlantic Canada, but will still be above normal, with upper 70s/lower 80s expected. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR as high pressure builds in today. A weak low pressure trough will approach from the NW late today into tonight. VFR. Winds W-NW less than 10 kt overnight should back to the W-SW today, becoming gusty 15-20 kt this afternoon. Gusts diminish early in the evening. There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF/KGON this evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... W to SW winds 10-15kt today and tonight should limit seas on the ocean to 4 ft during the period. Lighter winds are expected tomorrow and Wednesday as a high pressure center slowly drifts into the region. Seas will also diminish in response to this. Sub- advisory conditions continue through Friday with a weak pressure gradient and no appreciable swell. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip current development today and with a lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8 seconds. A low risk of rip current development is anticipated for Tuesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/BG NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...BG MARINE...JC/BG HYDROLOGY...JC/BG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...