FXUS61 KOKX 260847 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 447 AM EDT Sun May 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening, followed by weak high pressure for Memorial Day. Another warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of Long Island. The front should lift through by Thursday morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday. The front may linger into Friday, then weak high pressure may build in to start next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... After some stratus early this morning, skies clear as the atmospheric column dries out. This, along with an offshore wind component for much of the area will allow for deep mixing and rapid heating this morning into early afternoon. Mixing up to 800mb with temps at this level at 12-13C during the mid-afternoon yields highs in the lower 90s across NE NJ and parts of NYC and adjacent suburbs. Immediate south coasts will likely be limited to upper 70s/lower 80s with SW component to flow and hybrid afternoon sea breeze development ahead of thermal troughing and approach of cold front. Elsewhere, widespread mid to upper 80 degree temps, locally 90 degrees. These temps will be about 15-20 degrees above seasonable. Surface dewpoints will keep heat index values within a degree or two of the ambient temperature. A cold front enters from the NW late in the day and moves through the rest of area this evening. Ahead of it, a weak thermal trough will develop across the region. Potential for showers and thunderstorms will limited in spite of the surface heating and building instability. Mid-level capping and late dynamic lift with limited available moisture will serve to limit any activity to isolated/scattered. Any thunderstorms that manage to occur could have strong wind gusts with the given speed shear and relatively dry conditions in the sub-cloud layer with an inverted-V profile. Moisture increases this evening along the cold front but with a more stable atmosphere. Still, a chance of showers and thunderstorms remains for some areas until around midnight. Drier air pushes in overnight behind the cold front. There is a moderate risk of rip current development today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Weak high pressure builds in for Memorial Day with dry weather and less humid conditions than today. MOstly sunny with high temperatures still above normal, but not a warm as today. There is a low risk of rip current development on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Much of this week will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat ridging to the south, and a series of passing shortwave troughs along with a nearby sfc warm front bringing inclement wx at times beginning late Mon night. The warm front will approach late Mon night into Tue with showers, also perhaps a few tstms by Tue evening as mid levels destabilize, but remain just south as a weak sfc low develops along it and ripples eastward. The front should remain south until Thu, with one more accompanying round of showers/tstms Wed night, then lift through Thu morning as the flow aloft amplifies just enough in response to a weakening upper low shearing out into the Plains states. This should make Thu the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in the 80s, which along with dewpoints in the lower 60s, should provide sufficient instability for afternoon/evening tstms ahead of an approaching cold front. Storms with the front could be strong per ECMWF/GFS consensus, with sfc-based LI -4C to -6C, mid level flow 40-50 kt, and Maglenta and SWEAT indices as low as 3 and nearing 300 respectively. Some recent events that looked greater in the long term have not quite panned out, but the accompanying air mass for this event is likely to be warmer and more humid and therefor more unstable. The sfc front could linger nearby into Fri morning per GFS as it aligns with the flow aloft. with only slight chance PoP this far out in time. Otherwise weak high pressure should build in to end the work week and start next weekend, before the next in the train of disturbances follows possibly for next Sunday. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front passes early this morning. A cold front follows this evening. MVFR or IFR is expected through 11-13Z, mainly in lower ceilings. thereafter, MVFR and possible IFR improves to VFR, which will prevail through the day, except in an isolated late day thunderstorm. Coverage too low for inclusion in the forecast attm. S/SW winds 10 kt or less shift to the W by 11-12Z as the warm front passes. Winds should remain SW-W through the day 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. The chance for a S sea breeze at coastal terminals is low this afternoon. Winds then shift to the NW by evening and lighten. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late tonight...VFR. .Monday...VFR. .Tuesday...MVFR or lower in likely showers. SE gusts to 20 kt possible near the coast. .Wednesday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers/thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. .Thursday...Chance of MVFR or lower in showers/thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions today with W to SW winds averaging around 10 kt, although a late afternoon southerly coastal jet of 15-20 kt is possible for the NY Bight. Seas mostly 3 to 4 feet. Relatively tranquil conditions expected for Monday. Expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing winds/seas through the longer term. Can't totally rule out onshore flow pushing seas close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters late day Tue into Tue evening and again Thu night, or sea breezes gusting to 25 kt Thu afternoon on the near shore ocean waters and the south shore bays of Long Island. Tstms may also pose a hazard each late day and evening during mid week, especially on Thu. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated today/tonight and probably for much of the upcoming week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/Goodman NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...JC/Goodman EQUIPMENT...