FXUS61 KOKX 151726 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1226 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds from the southwest while a weak upper level disturbance pushes across tonight. High pressure will anchor itself along the coast on Tuesday. A warm front pushes north of the area early Wednesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. A warm front approaches Thursday, followed by a strong cold front early Friday. High pressure will be in place to begin the weekend, followed by another cold front late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Point(s): * Unseasonably cold to begin the work week. A bitterly cold start to the week with the coldest air of the season in place to start things off. After a bitterly cold morning, it remains brisk and unseasonably cold into this afternoon. The difference will be the winds not being as gusty and as strong. The winds come more around to the west this afternoon. Despite plenty of sun temperatures only recover a little and will not be able to get to freezing as most locations won't get out of the upper 20s. Wind chills this afternoon likely don't budge the upper teens. For tonight the winds diminish with a lighter W flow regime. Winds should be light enough for the non-urban areas to decouple at least some. BUFKIT soundings indicate some moisture and a pocket of higher RH in relation to a shortwave. There is a wedge of dry air closer to the sfc and below 7-8 kft. Therefore it will be difficult to squeeze out a few flakes with light snow or flurries. Have kept PoPs minimal as high res guidance has backed off some on prospect of very light snow or flurries with the shortwave disturbance. But there should still be a fair amount of cloud cover. Thus a good degree of radiational cooling should be prevented, otherwise with a snowpack in place temperatures could really plummet. Therefore not expected single digits, and more like teens to around 20 for night time minimum temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Point(s): * The cold eases as temperatures moderate. With the shortwave getting east early Tuesday there will be weak NVA and high pressure to the south will support overall large scale sinking motion in the lower levels. Look for a good degree of sunshine as the air mass begins to modify. Temperatures will remain well below normal, but places along the coast should reach or just get above freezing during the afternoon. Most spots reach the lower 30s, with a few middle 30s further east with light winds so not feeling nearly as cold. Towards the early evening the region begins to get into a return flow regime. Thus temperatures won't be as cold Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty with the winds Tuesday night. If the winds end up lighter than the consensus guidance then more radiational cooling could get the non-urban areas a lot colder then currently forecast, especially with a snow cover in place. Lows will get down into the lower and middle 20s, with some upper teens and lower 20s across interior outlying locations. If less clouds are in place and winds are lighter then temperatures could get colder. On Wednesday temperatures will be noticeably milder as temperatures get back closer to normal with lower and middle 40s on a SW flow regime with more clouds later in the day. During Wednesday night a weakening cold front is progged to push through. The front goes through frontolysis and will have no moisture to work with, thus the front will not have any precip with it. The winds go more west and should be light in the wake of the front. A seasonable night with lows mainly in the 20s and lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Points: * A warm up as it turns much milder Wednesday into Thursday. * Another brief shot of cold Friday afternoon into the start of the weekend, although not as cold as past cold shots. A quasi zonal flow across the Lower 48 takes shape during the period as the polar vortex expands as it stays up in Northern Canada. There remain some differences in the global guidance regarding the degree of amplification of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region towards Thursday. Regardless, there should be enough amplification to allow warmer air to push in on a much milder SW flow behind a warm front and head of a cold front into Thursday and Thursday night. The cold front will have a good degree of baroclinicity with it with rain showers preceding and along the front for Thursday night into early Friday morning. Colder air arrives by Friday afternoon as it dries out quickly and turns windy. It will turn noticeably colder late Friday into early Saturday, but this cold air mass will not be as cold as prior cold air masses. The weather will be dry and calm to begin the weekend. Another cold front will approach during Sunday, but ahead of the front milder air surges into the region before the front arrives with temperatures likely climbing a bit above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in through early Tuesday. VFR. A few flurries will be possible from approx 01-04z, but confidence is low. NW/WNW winds gusting at around 25kt. Gusts subside at approx 21- 22z with winds backing more WSW and gradually weakening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Direction likely favors north/right of 310 magnetic through approx 18-19z, then south/left of it thereafter. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday Afternoon and Wednesday: VFR. Chance of LLWS on Wednesday. Thursday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt late day. Thursday night: Rain with IFR cond, especially after midnight. S winds G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 25-35kt after midnight. LLWS after midnight. Friday: Chance of rain and either MVFR/IFR cond in the morning, then VFR. SW winds G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon and increasing to 30-40kt. LLWS early. Saturday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Primarily small craft conditions through much of today. The majority of the non-ocean waters likely fall below small craft criteria before days end, otherwise marginal small craft conditions are likely on much of the ocean through Monday night. Sub advisory conditions will prevail Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Small craft conditions will then ramp up on the ocean waters into Wednesday with an increasing WSW flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Behind the cold front sub advisory conditions return by early Thursday morning on the ocean. However, the winds and seas ramp up quickly late Thursday and Thursday evening as gale conditions become likely on all waters Thursday night into Friday. Conditions are then expected to settle down late Friday night into Saturday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... There remain no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ332- 350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...JE AVIATION...JT MARINE...JE HYDROLOGY...JE