FXUS61 KOKX 090227 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1027 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach Tuesday and will slowly move across the area Tuesday night. The front remains near the region Wednesday and then move farther north as a wave of low pressure approaches Wednesday night into early Thursday. The front will then move farther south Thursday into Thursday evening. High pressure will begin to build in from the west Thursday night and will then weaken as well as move across the area Friday into the weekend. High pressure will further weaken early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Forecast mainly on track. A few weakening showers moving across interior southern Connecticut, and into northern New Jersey at 02Z. Temperatures and dewpoints were slightly adjusted to better match with observed trends. Another warm, humid night is on tap with lows once again coming close to or beating record high minimums. Expect lows in the 80 in urban NYC/NJ, and mid-to-upper 70s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday should be the last day of our widespread heat and humidity as a cold front is expected to approach during the day and move across the area Tuesday night. Ahead of the front, the SW flow will continue as a Bermuda high remains offshore. Troughing will continue northwest of the area. 850mb temperatures between 20-22C during the day, should translate to low-to-mid 90s everywhere but the immediate coastline. With the tropical air mass, heat indices climb to 95-99F across much of the area, and a few 100-104F readings will be possible across the urban areas. Heat advisories continues through Tuesday evening for the entire CWA. Once again, while a few isolated spots, specifically in the urban corridor of NE NJ, may briefly touch 105F, coverage doesn't appear expansive enough to warrant a warning at this time. We are still expecting showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front to develop in the afternoon, slowly tracking south and east from the Lower Hudson Valley through the evening. Given the moist environment, torrential downpours remain possible, and may result in localized flooding. With weak shear, and only modest forcing, severe threat looks minimal. The front weakens as it moves through the region into Tuesday night, and rain chances decrease overnight as it does so. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Weakening frontal boundary in the area for Wednesday will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. A higher chance and coverage of showers as well as a chance of thunderstorms is also forecast Wednesday night as a wave of low pressure along the front approaches and helps push the frontal boundary farther north. The frontal boundary then is forecast to move farther south on Thursday. Dewpoints forecast trend a few degrees lower than the previous day and instability will be less. There is still a chance of showers in the forecast but only a slight chance of thunderstorms. Drier weather reestablishes in the region Thursday night as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Mainly dry conditions are forecast Friday into the weekend as high pressure weakens and moves into the region. More northerly flow Friday into the weekend will help make for a much less humid airmass along with cooler temperatures. This northerly flow will weaken more next Monday which will allow for a slow trend upward in temperatures and dewpoints. High pressure further weakens early next week with mainly dry conditions continuing. High temperatures forecast are a few degrees cooler than NBM for Wednesday, in the low to mid 80s for most locations, getting more into upper 80s for NYC and Northeast NJ. Followed the NBM for forecast highs Thursday through Monday of next week. Forecast highs are more in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and then mainly upper 70s to lower 80s for Friday and Saturday. Some rebound of forecast highs more into the low to mid 80s is in store for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Bermuda high pressure remains in control with a weakening surface trough near NYC/NJ metro terminals. A wave of low pressure passes well to the north late tonight and through Tuesday, bringing a cold front through the terminals northwest late in the afternoon and into the NYC metro terminals early Tuesday evening. VFR. MVFR will be possible in showers and thunderstorms mid to late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening. SW winds around 10 kt, diminishing below 10 kt late. SW winds increase Tuesday morning, with gusts developing in the NYC metro area. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Stratus is expected to develop late tonight, and may become broken around sunrise with MVFR. Timing and coverage of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon uncertain. Winds may shift to the northwest around 00Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday night...Chance of showers, thunderstorms early in the evening, with MVFR possible. SW winds early shifting to the NW .Wednesday..Showers, especially in the afternoon and evening with MVFR at times. An isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. .Thursday...Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm mainly in the morning. MVFR possible. .Friday-Saturday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Made a few minor updates to the wind gusts across the eastern ocean forecast waters where gusts were a couple of knots higher than forecast. SCA conditions continue on all the western ocean waters through tonight and on the central and eastern ocean waters through Tuesday, with wind gusts between 25-30 kts and/or seas around 5 ft. A SCA remains in effect through tonight for the South Shore Bays, Peconic and Gardiner Bays, and the central and eastern LI Sound as wind gusts to 25 kt are expected. Seas may remain elevated (above 5ft) into Tuesday night for the eastern ocean waters. Otherwise, Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through Tuesday night as the gradient over the waters weakens. With the pressure gradient remaining weak Wednesday through Saturday, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria on the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Any training convection this evening will be capable of producing localized flash flooding with the moist and unstable airmass in place (PWATS around 2"). Showers and thunderstorms are possible once again along and ahead of a slow moving cold front late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Potential training of cells will have to be monitored for flash flooding concerns. No significant widespread rainfall expected Wednesday through the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a high rip current risk through Tuesday evening for all ocean beaches. The high risk is a function of a S-SW flow increasing to around 15 kt with 4-5 ft southerly wind waves. The flow and waves start to subside late Tuesday afternoon and decrease more Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rip current risk for ocean beaches on Wednesday is moderate. Astronomical tides increase during the middle of the week with the approach of a full moon on Thursday. Localized minor coastal flooding is possible for the South Shore Back Bays and southwest CT coast during times of high tide Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-340- 345-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JM NEAR TERM...BC/JM/MET SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MET MARINE...BC/JM/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...