FXUS61 KOKX 281151 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 651 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits east this morning, then high pressure builds in through the rest of the day and shifts offshore on Tuesday. A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for Thursday and slides off the East Coast late Friday into Friday night. The next frontal system affects the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The forecast is mostly on track. Made some adjustments to hourly temps and dewpoints and expanded then coverage for the chance of sprinkles over the next couple of hours. A cold front over the forecast area exits east this morning with high pressure building in behind it. Breezy with a gusty W flow shifting NW by the end of the morning. Models show some moisture in the 850-900 mb layer, so most of the area is probably partly to mostly sunny, but some areas, mainly over the western half of the forecast area, could be mostly cloudy at times. Possibly even some sprinkles NW of the city early this morning. Winds will then diminish tonight as a surface ridge approaches. High temperatures probably have already occurred early this morning in some areas ahead of the cold front, but afternoon temperatures are still expected to range mostly in the lower 50s. Lows tonight mostly in the 30s, except radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s for the northernmost suburbs and the Pine Barrens region in Long Island. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ridging at the surface and aloft for Tuesday morning before the ridge shifts offshore in the afternoon. Sunshine mixes with afternoon cirrus along with high temperatures at or just slightly below normal. Clouds then lower and thicken through Tuesday night ahead of the next storm system. The clouds and southerly flow will prevent temperatures from falling as much as they will tonight. For Wednesday, low pressure strengthens as it tracks well north of us. This and a developing low level jet will help push a warm front through here during the day, followed by a strong cold front quickly moving through during the evening hours. Plenty of moisture will be available to work with, so will continue to advertise categorical PoPs focused in the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the cold front. Due to the speed of the front, flooding does not appear to be likely in spite of the high moisture content embedded in the storm system. The bigger impact for Weds and Weds night will more likely be gusty winds. A 925mb llj of 65-75 kt is progged to shift through areas east of the city late in the day/early evening ahead of the cold front. There is always a question of how much of these winds will mix down to the surface, especially since the flow will be S ahead of the front with nearby water temperatures in the mid 50s. Gusts of at least 35-45 mph appear likely with the strongest winds occurring from the NYC metro on east across Long Island and S CT. Winds should also remain strong immediately behind the frontal passage with impressive pressure rises the first half of Wednesday night. The potential exists for wind gusts to reach 45-55 mph (Wind Advisory levels) along and just behind the front passage. These winds are also signaled in the 90th percentile of the 10-m max wind gusts in the latest NBM. The low level winds weaken through the rest of Wednesday night, but should remain gusty into Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds in for Thursday as the mid level trough pushes east of the forecast area. A sharp pressure gradient will set up between surface low pressure well north of the area in Canada, and 1034-1037 hPa high building in from the mid-West. This will mean breezy conditions, especially in the late morning into the early afternoon, and especially for coastal locations. West winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph are possible. Strong cold advection will allow for some below normal temperatures, with highs only in the lower to middle 40s. The high moves overhead late Thursday night into Friday morning, and pushes off the East Coast late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Some weak warm advection on Friday will allow for some warmer temperatures, with highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday. The next chance for any precipitation will come next weekend with the approach of another frontal system. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty with the exact timing of any precipitation and frontal passage. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front moves through the terminals early this morning. High pressure builds in from the west this morning into tonight. West winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt and shifting to the NW later this morning, with gusts at the New York City metro terminals 20 to 25 kt. Isolated gusts of 25 to 30 kt possible. Gusts end late in the afternoon and diminish this evening and become north. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be off +/- an hour. Isolated gusts of 25 to 30 kt possible. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...MVFR or lower at times in showers. S winds G20-25 kt in the afternoon, shifting to the SW at night with G30-35 kt. LLWS possible Wednesday night. .Thursday...VFR. W winds G25-30kt gradually diminish at night. .Friday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA conditions on all waters to start. All non-ocean waters are expected to fall below advisory criteria by early afternoon as wind gusts slowly diminish. On the ocean, advisory conditions will continue into tonight as seas will still be elevated. Conditions should be below advisory levels by Wednesday morning. A strengthening S flow is likely on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which will bring a return to SCA conditions, especially in the afternoon. Gales probably then develop late day/early evening and could continue into early Thursday morning, especially for the eastern waters. SCA conditions will otherwise continue into Thursday. Winds should weaken Thursday night, but SCA conditions could linger east of Moriches inlet in elevated seas and winds near 25 kt. Sub-SCA conditions prevail on Friday with high pressure overhead. && .HYDROLOGY... 0.50 to 0.75 inch of rainfall is expected Wednesday through Wednesday night with most of it falling in the afternoon and evening. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this event. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JP NEAR TERM...JC SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP MARINE...JC/JP HYDROLOGY...JC/JP