FXUS61 KPHI 031919 CCA AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front off our coast will start to drift northwestward as a warm front tomorrow. This front is expected to stall again over our region by Thursday before dissipating. High pressure will build over our region Friday. By Sunday, a weak cold front will approach our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The stationary front remains well offshore to our southeast. Showers will continue to develop in the vicinity of the front offshore. The first of a series of lows will lift northeast along the front, allowing the front to drift northwest as a warm front. Still expect the front to stay off shore through the day tomorrow, but it could get close enough that we will see showers along coastal locations during the day on Wednesday. There is still some differences between models on how this will evolve as the NAM continues to show the low being more intense and deeper, allowing the front to almost make it to the coast tomorrow. Most other models however, show a weaker low, keeping the front well off shore. For now, have stayed close to the previous forecast, with likely PoPs confined to just the immediate coastal locations. Regardless of the exact location of the front, we will continue the streak of colder than normal days as a combination of onshore flow and continued high cloud cover due to the subtropical jet will keep temperatures mostly in the 70s tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The previously mentioned front is expected to stall once again either over our region or right along our coast before dissipating through the day on Thursday. Consequently, we will have another chance for showers on Thursday, primarily in the vicinity of the front, before the surface high builds over the region bringing drier weather on Friday. We should see a slight warming trend going into Thursday as low level flow shifts to northwesterly so we finally loose the onshore flow. Highs on Thursday should be mostly in the lower to mid 80s, with the exception of the southern Poconos and coastal areas which may stay in the 70s. By Friday however, low level flow shifts to westerly, and a mid level short wave ridge briefly builds overhead. Consequently, should see an additional warming trend going into Friday, with highs in the 80s to near 90 for much of the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry and clear conditions continue through the evening Friday and into Saturday morning with a weak ridge offshore. Sky cover increases early Saturday as a warm front lifts northward. Temperatures and dew points trend upwards with the enhanced southerly flow Saturday and into Sunday. A deep shortwave over the Midwest and Ohio Valley builds and progresses through the latter half of the week and will push a frontal boundary into the region late Saturday. Models had lowered POPs for Saturday, but a chance of widespread precipitation across the CWA remains Saturday afternoon and evening, so the POPs levels remain the same from the previous update. In the latter half of the weekend into the early part of next week, a subtropical ridge builds over the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic, upping dew point and humidity values to oppressive levels by Monday/Tuesday. Heat Advisories may be needed in the urban corridor for Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday currently expected to be the hottest day of the period. On Monday, the GFS solution has a trough forming in the Great Lakes region and moving through the Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances were upped to account for this solution. Precipitation chances decrease greatly after Monday evening as the ridge continues to build, but uncertainty remains for this time period. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through Tonight...VFR conditions expected with only high clouds. Winds starting easterly or southeasterly 5 to 10 kt becoming light and variable after 00Z. High confidence. Wednesday...Starting with VFR conditions. After 15Z, there is a chance that MVFR ceilings could move in over KACY and KMIV, but it is unlikely to get further east. Some brief visibility restrictions may be possible with showers at KACY and KMIV after 15Z. Northeasterly winds 5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence on most aspects of the forecast, but low confidence on how quickly MVFR ceilings will develop at KACY and KMIV. Outlook... Thursday...Mostly VFR with a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms and sub-VFR restrictions. Northerly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence. Friday...Mostly VFR with a very slight chance for scattered showers. Southwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence. Saturday...VFR in the morning with scattered showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon that could bring restrictions. Southerly winds from 5 to 10 knots. Moderate confidence. Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms resulting in some ceiling and visibility restrictions. Southwesterly winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Increasing northeastern winds and increasing seas will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions on the Atlantic coastal waters starting mid day Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night. On the Delaware Bay, winds and waves should stay below SCA criteria. Outlook... Thursday...Once seas subside below 5 feet Thursday morning, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Friday through Sunday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Rip Currents... An onshore wind around 10 MPH is expected for today. Breaking waves should be 1 to 2 feet with a medium period southeasterly swell. There is a LOW risk for rip currents along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today. An increasing northeast wind is anticipated for Wednesday with speeds ranging from 15 to 20 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to build to 2 to 3 feet. There should be a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Wednesday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>452. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ453>455. && $$ Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Staarmann/Luehrs Aviation...Davis/Johnson Marine...Davis/Johnson